Banca centrale - Non c'è pressa per aumentare i tassi - BCE lascia invariati i tassi
The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged in the Eurozone, despite a recent decrease in inflation. At its June meeting, currency traders around ECB President Christine Lagarde had some time in Frankfurt. They decided to leave the main interest rate, to which banks can borrow fresh money from the Banca Centrale Europea, at 4.25%. The deposit rate, which commercial banks receive when they park excess money at the Central Bank, remains at 3.75%.
The ECB is postponing an immediate easing of its monetary policy. However, many economists expect the Central Bank to lower interest rates at its next meeting in mid-September.
All eyes on September
The ECB left all doors open after the summer break and avoided clear indications. Future interest rate decisions will depend on economic data, confirmed Lagarde. Decisions will be made from meeting to meeting.
Lagarde referred to persistent high pressure: The overall inflation in the Eurozone should remain above the target value deep into the next year, she said. On the other hand, the trend towards high wage growth, which worries currency traders, should abate and alleviate economic risks: The economy of the Eurozone is likely to have grown more slowly in the second quarter than in the first.
The ECB remains cautious
To get a handle on the record-high inflation caused by the Russian attack on Ukraine, the ECB has raised interest rates ten times in a row since July 2022. In June, the ECB then lowered interest rates for the first time since the inflation wave by 0.25 percentage points.
The ECB must balance its monetary policy. High interest rates make credit more expensive. This can dampen economic demand and counteract high inflation rates. More expensive credit, however, is also a burden for the economy and individuals who borrow - for example, homebuilders. If the ECB lowers interest rates too quickly again, it risks attracting inflation back.
"The fight of European currency traders against high inflation rates is not yet won," warns Heiner Herkenhoff, CEO of the Banking Association. For the interest rate decision on September 12, he demands caution. "The ECB should only lower interest rates if it can be sure that inflation in the Eurozone reliably approaches the 2% mark."
Inflation declines - but slowly
Recently, inflation in the currency union has decreased. The rate fell to 2.5% in June from 2.6% in May. The inflation rate is thus approaching the ECB's medium-term goal of a yearly rate of two percent in the currency union and maintaining price stability.
However, the decline in inflation in the Eurozone is slow. Economists are concerned that the core inflation rate, which excludes volatile prices for energy and food, stagnated at 2.9% in June.
Criticism of easing
Some economists criticize the ECB's turnaround. The ECB Council should lower interest rates on the next meeting in September, "if inflation data is halfway decent," says Commerzbank Chief Economist Jörg Krämer. Further steps should follow in December and in March next year. He complained: "This turnaround is premature because the inflation problem is not yet solved."
Currently, it looks good for a next interest rate cut by the ECB in September, according to Ulrich Kater, Chief Economist of DekaBank. A very plausible assumption for those who save or borrow, is that "both short-term and long-term interest rates will continue to decrease in the coming quarters."
Interest rates already decreased
The latest interest rate cut by the ECB in June is already noticeable for savers at their banks. According to the comparison portal Verivox, regional banks paid an average of 1.69% for savings accounts as of July 15th. This was still 1.72% at the beginning of June. The average for savings accounts at Sparkassen was 0.62%, and for regional cooperative banks it was 0.64%.
"Many banks and Sparkassen have quickly passed on the latest interest rate cut of the European Central Bank to their customers," according to Verivox. Long-term savings rates also fell - from an average of 2.82% at the beginning of June to 2.79% currently.
No relief for homebuyers
Less pleasing for borrowers. For example, mortgage financing is cheaper than in the previous fall, but the conditions have been stabilized at a higher level for several months. The interest rates for loans with a 10-year interest rate commitment were 3.7% according to FMH Financial Consulting, and 3.85% for a 15-year commitment. At least in the coming weeks, there is expected to be little movement in mortgage rates, according to credit brokers.
- La decisione del Banca Centrale Europea di mantenere immutate le tassi d'interesse nella Zona Euro è seguita con attesa da commercianti di valuta a Francoforte, guardando verso la tornata di giugno di Christine Lagarde, Presidente della BCE.
- Nonostante la cautela della BCE, molti economisti prevedono che il Banco abbia ridotto i tassi all'incontro successivo in mezzo settembre, a causa della situazione economica o ciclo.
- Lagarde ha menzionato che l'inflazione totale nella Zona Euro deve rimanere al di sopra del valore target fino alla prossima annata, ma la tendenza al crescito salariale alto dovrebbe scemare.
- La politica monetaria della BCE è un equilibrio, poiché i tassi alti rendono il credito più costoso, che può rinfreddare la domanda economica, ma sono anche un peso per l'economia e per le persone che prestano denaro.
- Heiner Herkenhoff, CEO della Associazione Bancaria, ha chiesto cautela nella decisione di interessi del 12 settembre, affermando che la BCE dovrebbe solo ridurre i tassi se può affidabilmente approcciare il segno del 2% di inflazione.
- La Germania, essendo un membro chiave dell'Unione Monetaria Europea, gioca un ruolo significativo in queste decisioni, con la Banca Centrale di Francoforte a bordo.
- Alcuni economisti criticano la volte-face della BCE, affermando che la riduzione dei tassi è prematura poichè il problema di inflazione non è ancora stato risolto.
- L'ultimo taglio di interessi da parte della BCE in giugno ha colpito i risparmiatori, con banche regionali che hanno ridotto le tassi dei conti di risparmio da una media di 1,72% a 1,69%, secondo il portale di confronto Verivox.
