EM 2024 - Will Austria be the beneficiary? Which side of the tournament tree is more easily occupied
No, it will be much harder for the host to come for the EM. While Germany was quite lucky to finish as group winners for the EM knockout stage on Sunday, the significantly harder half of the tournament bracket now awaits Julian Nagelsmann's team. Denmark, the EM semifinalist from 2021, makes the debut on Saturday, but they have yet to impress. However, other teams also face challenges: Germany could encounter the convincing Spain (quarterfinals), France with superstar Kylian Mbappé, Belgium with playmaker Kevin De Bruyne, or Portugal with veteran Cristiano Ronaldo (semifinals). Four of the top five favorites are in the knockout round's lower bracket.
On the other hand, the upper half of the bracket looks much lighter, with only top favorite England and the defending European champion Italy present, neither of which have lived up to expectations so far. Switzerland, however, has impressed, facing Italy in the round of 16, and Austria as well.
The Austrians could potentially benefit the most, facing Turkey in the round of 16 and potentially an easier opponent in the quarterfinals. The paths of the teams could cross only in the semifinals with Italy or England. It's the reward for an unexpected win in Group D, where Ralf Rangnick's team left France, the Netherlands, and Poland behind.
Slovakia and Georgia qualified as group third-placers on Wednesday evening – to the disappointment of the Hungarians. The German opponent had hoped for advancement since Sunday, but it wasn't until late Wednesday evening that they were officially eliminated from the tournament. (Read more about the controversial rule for group third-placers)
At the EM, there is often a weaker tournament tree
A glance at the EM history shows that there has always been a stronger and a weaker tournament tree. At the EM 2016, the first European championship with a knockout stage, Portugal took advantage of the situation. While France, England, Germany, Italy, and Spain eliminated each other in the lower bracket, Portugal faced Croatia, Poland, and Wales in the upper bracket. France, the later finalist, presented a high caliber in the final, which the Portuguese defeated 1:0 in extra time and became the first European champions.
The European championship 2021 was quite different – not just because it was held during the Corona pandemic. The upper bracket was also the less challenging one. The later finalist England met a rather dull German team in the round of 16, followed by Ukraine in the quarterfinals and Denmark in the semifinals. The lower bracket, however, was packed with favorites like Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, the then defending World Cup champions France, and the runners-up Croatia. Italy advanced past Austria, Belgium, and Spain narrowly and defeated England in the final via penalty shootout.
Editor's note: This article was updated after the end of the group stage
- Despite Denmark's debut in the EM knockout stage on Saturday, they need to be wary of potential challenges from Spain, France with Mbappé, Belgium with De Bruyne, or Portugal with Ronaldo, all of whom are in the lower bracket.
- Belgium, with playmaker Kevin De Bruyne, and Portugal, led by veteran Cristiano Ronaldo, are two formidable teams that Germany could face in the lower bracket of the EM.
- In contrast, the upper half of the EM bracket looks more favorable, with only top favorite England and defending champion Italy present, although Switzerland and Austria have impressed so far.
- Portugal, as they did at the EM 2016, could potentially benefit from a weaker tournament tree, facing teams like Switzerland or Austria in the lower bracket, whereas Denmark, Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, and Croatia comprise the tougher opponents in the other half.
