What makes Borussia Dortmund more successful in the Champions League than in the German Bundesliga?
The conclusion of the Bundesliga sees Borussia Dortmund finishing in fifth place, but their enthusiasts still yearn for the pinnacle accomplishment: winning the Champions League. Statistical analysis reveals what the Dortmund team does noticeably superior on an international scale.
This Saturday evening, Borussia Dortmund intends to acquire their second Champions League triumph in their history: at Wembley, it's against reigning champion Real Madrid (9 p.m./ZDF, DAZN, and live ticker at ntv.de). Real Madrid has won the title eight consecutive times if they reach the final. The Dortmund team is considered an obvious underdog, but they're aware that this season: the supposed death group with AC Milan, Newcastle United, and Paris Saint-Germain was challenging.
Contrary to many assumptions, the BVB mastered the presumed death group dominantly and progressed as group leaders to the round of 16. Here, the Borussia defeated PSV Eindhoven (1:1/2:0). In the quarter-finals, the Dortmunders lost the first leg against Atletico Madrid 1:2, but with an intense 4:2 in the return leg, they proceeded to the semi-finals. Again, the opponent was Paris Saint-Germain. Different from the group stage (0:2 in Paris and 1:1 in Dortmund), the BVB won both matches (1:0/1:0) and advanced to the final for the third time after 1997 and 2013.
Unlike the Champions League, the BVB did not perform well against domestic competition this season: six defeats against the elite seven in the league - with a goal difference of 19:24. Borussia Dortmund ended up in fifth place in the Bundesliga. Thanks to the Champions League reform, this is sufficient for the re-entry into the premier class - and with a win against Real, the Black and Yellows would even take sixth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt to the Champions League.
So why did it go so much better for the BVB in the Champions League? One explanation could be the anticipation. In the Bundesliga, the Dortmunders are usually regarded as favorites as the previous year's almost champions. Internationally, they were often underappreciated. In the group, the outcome was expected, while in the three knockout rounds, they were only perceived as better in the eighth final against Eindhoven. The reversed roles are evident in the ball possession statistics. 58.1% in the Bundesliga and only 45.6% in the Champions League.
However, the BVB didn't act defensively in the premier class. On the contrary: All defensive statistics were marginally better internationally. The Dortmunders intercepted more balls from the opponent, attacked them more frequently, and won more duels on the ground and in the air. Notably, Mats Hummels was outstanding internationally and won more than 72% of the duels (Bundesliga value: 59%). Consequently, the Borussians conceded only nine goals in twelve CL matches and maintained a clean sheet six times.
The top Dortmund player was, in fact, between the posts. In the Bundesliga, Gregor Kobel also displayed excellent performances, but his values are further enhanced in the Champions League: 85% of the shots he could save - in the Bundesliga, it was 75%. Even backup goalkeeper Alexander Meyer performed well in the 1:1 against Eindhoven.
The outstanding goalkeeping performances were crucial. Despite the clear defensive strategy, the opponents had many dangerous opportunities. According to the "post shot expected goals" statistic, which encompasses all shots that actually reached the goal, Borussia Dortmund should have conceded 15.2 goals (penalties excluded). However, Kobel and Meyer prevented 7.2 goals more than statistically expected. They blocked eight running game interventions, in addition to a handball penalty in the initial group game against PSG.
Yet, the defensive tactics also led to less offensive hazard. Dortmund had fewer chances internationally and shot less often on goal. The quality of the conclusions was also dramatically lower.
Fascinatingly, the "expected goals" value was never higher than that of the opponent in any Champions League game. The opponents should, therefore, have shot more goals, at least according to this statistic. The fact that Dortmund still emerged victorious seven times (with three draws and two defeats) demonstrates the extraordinary efficiency of the BVB.
Whether Dortmund can also surprise in the final will be disclosed on Saturday evening.
The game plan must be obvious: primarily, keep the zero at the back and coldly strike up front when the chance occurs.
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In the Champions League, Edin Terzic's Borussia Dortmund managed to outperform their domestic performance in the Bundesliga, earning a spot in the final for the third time after 1997 and 2013. Despite a defensive strategy, the team conceded fewer goals in the Champions League compared to the Bundesliga, with Mats Hummels performing exceptionally well, winning more than 72% of duels. In contrast, Borussia Dortmund struggled against domestic competition, ending up in fifth place with six defeats against the elite seven in the league.
Despite their achievements in the Champions League, Borussia Dortmund's goalkeepers Gregor Kobel and Alexander Meyer played a crucial role, saving a significant number of shots beyond what was statistically expected. Conversely, Borussia Dortmund had fewer chances and shot less often in the Champions League compared to their domestic games.
In the upcoming Champions League final against Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund will once again aim to keep the zero at the back while striking up front when the chance occurs, aiming to claim their second Champions League title.
