The top DFB lineup for the home European Championships is highly recommended.
Right on time for the start of the European Football Championship, a heated debate has emerged: Should Manuel Neuer actually be the goalkeeper for the German national team or is Marc-André ter Stegen better suited for the job? Toni Kroos has secured his spot in midfield, but what about captain Ilkay Gündoğan? The stats reveal who coach Julian Nagelsmann should choose.
Nagelsmann had a short window to choose his squad for the home EM: only eight games as national coach before the tournament. He opted for three goalkeepers and 23 field players, discarding the apparent fourth keeper. Who could replace him?
For his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, Nagelsmann nominated five central and four outside defenders, four defensive and six offensive midfielders, and four strikers. Among the nominees are world champions Toni Kroos, Thomas Müller, and Manuel Neuer, who were joined by top talents like Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, as well as newcomers like Maximilian Beier and Maximilian Mittelstädt. But who should start based on their season performance?
The biggest debate centered on the goalkeeping position after the EM trial match against Greece (2:1). Nagelsmann initially chose Neuer, but his mistakes that led to a goal (and his blunder against Ukraine) fueled the calls for ter Stegen. Numbers don't lie: ter Stegen had a better season. He conceded fewer goals and kept more clean sheets, saved more balls, and let in fewer goals than expected. In terms of build-up play and situations outside the penalty area, there's no real difference between the two - both are cautious when it comes to crosses.
Third-choice goalkeeper Oliver Baumann may not be as strong as Ter Stegen and Neuer, but he was impressive for Hoffenheim and has the best penalty kick statistics: he saved three out of five attempts in the past season.
In central defense, Nagelsmann is likely to stick with Jonathan Tah and Antonio Rüdiger. Both have the safest passing game and are best in the air. The duo has the best tackling rate, but Waldemar Anton is putting pressure on them. Anton has good values in all categories and is a threat from the second line. Nico Schlotterbeck also shone this season with his physical strength, but made too many individual errors. Robin Koch is in the same boat.
The right-back position has been a major weakness for the national team since Philipp Lahm retired. Nagelsmann is moving Joshua Kimmich from his midfield spot into the defensive line. Left-back looks good with newcomer Mittelstädt so far. Although none of the candidates have been perfect defensively, Kimmich's weaknesses are aerial duels and individual errors. The Leipzig player's struggles were noticeable in dribbling situations, where he often resorted to foul play.
In defensive midfield, Toni Kroos has been a force since his return to the national team. The six-time Champions League champion is nearing the end of his career but continues to play at a world-class level, both on and off the ball. Robert Andrich is likely to join him, as he combines good passing with the necessary physicality. Should they go for a more offensive style, Pascal Groß could be the better option - he scored a spectacular volley goal against Greece. Just before the Euros started, Emre Can was added to the team as a replacement for the injured Aleksandar Pavlović. Nagelsmann's choice came as a surprise, as Rocco Reitz had impressed during training camp, and previously discarded Leon Goretzka could have been an option. The decision went to Can, who was praised for his defensive stability at Dortmund.
In the offensive midfield, Nagelsmann faces a tough decision. Florian Wirtz has the best stats with over six shots per game and the most progressive passes, runs, and goalscoring points. Amid fierce competition, Leroy Sané edged out Musiala and Chris Fuhrich based on goals and assists. However, Gündoğan lagged behind thanks to his deeper position at Barcelona, where he showed impressive passing.
Up front, Nagelsmann seems to favor Kai Havertz, opting for a more creative solution. However, statistically speaking, Deniz Undav would be the better choice based on the season data.
Undav is similar to Havertz in playing as a false nine - they both join in the passing game and set up their teammates for scoring opportunities. This season, Undav displayed a deeper yearning for goals and higher efficiency, earning him the final free spot in our team.
Having Niclas Füllkrug and Maximilian Beier on the bench as "real" forwards gives the national coach an added advantage. Füllkrug's remarkable header abilities or Beier's superb long-range shooting prowess are two key advantages to have. History has shown how significant effective substitutes can be, as demonstrated by Mario Götze a decade ago.
