Turbulence in the air could soon become more intense.

The potential for increased air turbulence is a cause for concern.

Intense turbulence can leave even the bravest air travelers uneasy and make five minutes feel like an eternity. In the worst-case scenarios, it can lead to destruction, harm, and, as in the case of Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 on May 21, death.

In cases that do not result in fatality, turbulence is the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers, as per the Federal Aviation Administration, and it's one of the most typical types of airline accidents today, according to the US National Transportation Safety Board. It costs US airlines up to $500 million per year due to injuries, delays, and damages, as per the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

"There is a scale for measuring the strength of turbulence," Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the UK, said to CNN in 2022. "There's light turbulence, which gives you a bit of strain against your seatbelt, but you can continue serving food and potentially walk around the cabin, albeit with some difficulty.

"Then there's moderate turbulence, a significant strain against seatbelts, anything that's not secured will be displaced, and walking is challenging; flight attendants are usually advised to take their seats.

"However, the worst kind is severe turbulence: This is stronger than gravity, so it can pin you to your seat, and if you aren't using your seatbelt, you'll be thrown around inside the cabin. This type of turbulence can cause severe injuries – it's even been known to break bones."

Swift and without signals

About 65,000 aircraft experience moderate turbulence annually in the US, and approximately 5,500 encounter severe turbulence. However, these calculations may soon increase. Williams has been researching this issue since 2013 and believes that climate change is altering turbulence. “We ran some computer simulations and found that severe turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades,” he states.

The findings, which were subsequently verified, cover a kind of turbulence known as “clear air turbulence,” which isn't tied to any visual signals such as storms or clouds. Unlike regular turbulence, it strikes quickly and is difficult to avoid.

According to the NTSB, between 2009 and 2018, the flight crew was unaware of turbulence in around 28% of turbulence-related accidents. Williams' study suggests that clear-air turbulence will significantly climb worldwide by the mid-2050s to mid-2080s, particularly along the busiest flight routes, and the strongest kind of turbulence will increase the most.

That doesn't mean flying will become less safe. "Aircraft are built to the highest standards and can withstand the worst turbulence they may encounter, even in the future," says Williams.

Nonetheless, the mean duration of turbulence will grow. "Normally, on a transatlantic trip, you'd anticipate 10 minutes of turbulence. I believe that in a few decades, this may increase to 20 minutes or even half an hour. The seat belt sign will have to be switched on more frequently, regrettably for passengers."

Keep your seatbelts fastened whenever seated

Keeping your seatbelt fastened at all times when seated is the most effective way to minimize the risk of injury due to turbulence.

Flight attendants, however, are more susceptible to injury than passengers and suffer roughly 80% of all turbulence-related injuries. "They're more likely to get hurt because we're constantly on the move, pushing 300-pound carts, even when there's some forewarning," Sara Nelson, a United flight attendant with over two decades of experience and the president of the Association of Flight Attendants, a union representing 50,000 flight attendants across 20 airlines, told CNN in 2022.

"We've had flight attendants who have been hurled into the ceiling and then back down several times, resulting in broken limbs," she adds. "In the aisle, in turbulence that hasn't been announced, we've had people who've lost toes or lost the ability to work or sustained injuries that sidelined them for years."

The aviation sector is giving great consideration to the problem, Nelson asserts, but the shift toward sustainable fuel must accelerate to address the climate crisis, and certain regulations require revisions. For example, the law enabling children under the age of two to fly on their parents' laps on their laps.

"It's completely unsafe, and our union has been advocating for a seat for every individual onboard," Nelson says. "Not only can a child be tossed about the cabin, but when they come down, they could hurt someone else too. When a baby is born, you can't leave the hospital unless you have a properly installed car seat. The same standards should be applied to flying."

Pushes for strict new rules

The NTSB held a public meeting about turbulence in 2021, during which it suggested the same recommendation in tandem with more stringent rules for buckling seat belts for both passengers and flight attendants when the aircraft is near thunderstorms and lower than 20,000 feet, as the majority of injuries happen under these conditions. It also recommended improving the systems for collecting and disseminating turbulence reports, as such information is not traveling quickly or widely at the moment.

Although the impact of climate change on turbulence may not be noticeable for a while, Nelson suspects that some degradation has already transpired.

"It's just my experience, but since Hurricane Katrina, it seems that the occurrence of turbulence, particularly unforeseen turbulence, has risen," she states.

Her most harrowing experience with turbulence happened during a trip to Dallas, which ultimately required a detour.

"When something happens on the plane, the passengers look to us to gauge our level of concern," she notes. "Myself and a close friend of mine were seated on the jump seats in the back of the aircraft, with a lavatory in front of us rather than passengers.

"We were tightly secured, holding onto each other as we were violently shaken in our seats. It lasted for quite some time, to the point where our brains felt like they were being scrambled. Fortunately, we landed safely on the ground."

Though turbulence typically doesn't scare her, the event was so frightening and prolonged that even with proper training, she and her friend were desperate for survival.

"I'm usually not fearful of turbulence, as we're trained to manage these situations and know how to secure ourselves. However, with this intensity and duration, my friend and I were praying - and I can admit, I was genuinely afraid for my life."

This story was originally posted in September 2022. It was revised and re-published in May 2024.

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Despite these concerns about air turbulence, many individuals continue to enjoy traveling by air.

Furthermore, planning a trip can often be an exciting process, as it involves researching new destinations and making arrangements for accommodations and activities. In fact, the word 'travel' can evoke feelings of excitement and adventure for many people.

Source: edition.cnn.com