The coach's tears are followed by hope

After a weak first half of the season, Mainz 05 will once again have to put in a strong second half of the season to stay in the Bundesliga. When they were in this situation a few years ago, they produced a minor miracle. But that's not what they need this time.

The run-up to Christmas 2020 was anything but reflective at 1. FSV Mainz 05: The club had collected seven points in a disastrous first half of the season, the club was struggling to find its identity, people and club had become estranged from one another. Under coach Sandro Schwarz and predecessor Achim Beierlorzer, the team had often bored, too often frustrated and too rarely inspired. Or at least scored points. The coach had to go. When president Stefan Hofmann called an extraordinary press conference, the people hoped for an emotional release. And they love emotions in Mainz, including good stories. The greatest had been written by Jürgen Klopp, who had risen from an average second-division struggler to a world-class coach, giving first Mainz and then the whole of footballing Germany fairytale after fairytale.

But Hofmann had no promises of a great, or at least exciting, future in his luggage. He faced the people empty-handed and only had to announce that he had no idea what would happen next. There was the idea of bringing back Christian Heidel, the man who had promoted Klopp to coach and was the architect of Mainz's little soccer miracle, which took the club all the way to the European Cup and, with Thomas Tuchel, turned an A-youth coach into the next world coach in training.

Between the years, what they had dreamed of happened. If it wasn't far too cheesy for a Hollywood movie, you wouldn't believe it. Heidel was persuaded to take on responsibility at Mainz once again - on the condition that Bo Svensson would become his coach. Svensson, who had defended for Mainz 05 in the first and second divisions for many years, went along. And a new miracle took its course.

The Dane, brought in from FC Liefering in Austria for a small transfer fee, hit the ground running. After three defeats at the start, Mainz 05 almost played a Champions League second half of the season, adding 29 points to their pitiful seven points in the first half of the season. At the end of the final spurt, which former coach Schmidt, who had also rejoined the team and whom Heidel had made sports director, proclaimed the "coolest relegation battle of all time", the team managed to avoid relegation with relative ease. Svensson took the people with him, those in the stands and those on the pitch. Like Klopp once did.

"It was around half past three at night"

Svensson was also preparing to become the new Klopp. The former defender, athletically limited but strong to the point of self-destruction, brought back the exciting soccer, the emotions, the results. The story was perfect. Svensson followed up the miracle with a solid season, strong in special moments, beating FC Bayern and spoiling BVB's championship on the final matchday. But at some point it seemed as if the plug had been pulled: Nothing wanted to succeed anymore, the team regressed instead of moving forward. And after a disastrous cup exit at second-division club Hertha BSC, Svensson, who Heidel said "would never have been sacked", pulled the ripcord - and announced his resignation.

They would have loved to continue the story together, but in the end, they failed - just like Jürgen Klopp. He was relegated with "his" club, and after missing out on promotion, he left for the world in tears. Many years later, Svensson bid farewell to the club and fans with an emotional video that moved the entire league. The ex-professional, who collected more yellow cards on the touchline than any other coach, cried as he said goodbye. They loved him and when he left, tears flowed on all sides.

"To be honest, after the cup game I was expecting to receive a WhatsApp from Bo saying that he wanted to talk. And he did," said Heidel. "We then sat together in the hotel that night. Bo, sporting director Martin Schmidt and me. It was around half past three at night when the decision was made. We talked for an hour and a half. Bo was immediately very clear and said that he had the feeling that something had to happen now."

They were also worse

History could now repeat itself in Mainz. Because they are again looking for a coach, again at Christmas time. Svensson's successor, Jan Siewert, whom they plucked from their own second team to save the Bundesliga team in the winter, picked up seven points in seven games. Three of them in the first game after Svensson's departure against top club RB Leipzig. "For Bo", they announced afterwards at FSV Mainz 05.

But after that, it wasn't enough for another win, even though they were up against three direct rivals for relegation: 1. FC Köln, Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim. A turnaround is different, even for a new beginning that is actually too little. But this time the situation is different to Christmas 2020, when there was only no panic because a leaden lethargy had settled over the club and its surroundings: 2023 interim coach Siewert calmed the team down. "He had the feeling that he was no longer the right coach for this team," said Heidel after the Dane's departure. "The results and the last few games had shown him that." And Svensson was right, because the change of coach had an effect - albeit only at second glance - that he himself could no longer ensure.

The mood is better than the situation in the table. And there are good reasons for that. They have found their way back to a fun way of playing in the Rheinhessen region: Siewert has the technicians around South Korean Jae-Sung Lee or the A-Youth champion Brajan Gruda, who has established himself surprisingly quickly, whirling offensively, quick passing sequences with possession have replaced Svensson's idea of the long drive and the constant battle for the ball. This created numerous big chances.

Statistically speaking, Mainz 05 should have scored a whopping 17 out of a possible 21 points under Siewert, based on the value of expected goals. This provides information about the probability of being able to convert the quality of their own play into goals. According to the findings from the data, Mainz 05 had a structural problem under Svensson, which was rectified under his successor. A mixture of bad luck and a lack of precision led to many disappointments under Siewert, and by the end of the Svensson era they were actually the inferior team in almost every game. While Mainz 05 conceded more than three goals on average in the nine Svensson games, under Siewert it was four - in a total of seven games. This realization does not bring points, but it speaks - even if it is unromantic - against Svensson. Siewert has given the team, which was crumbling under Svensson, a stable structure that is viable for a functioning relegation battle.

A miracle is not needed

Siewert's record is enough for those responsible: "He has stabilized the team. You can see that - seven games, seven points. The team has become solid under him," sporting director Martin Schmidt praised the 41-year-old after the 1-1 draw in Dortmund, which gave the team a conciliatory send-off into the winter break. A few days later, the club announced that the former youth coach would be given a head coaching contract until 2026.

"The relegation battle has now really begun. This one point before the winter break must give everyone a boost and breathe new life into the team," said Schmidt. Last time, a few big moments between the years were enough to breathe new life into an entire club. There is still a gentle breeze blowing through Mainz at the moment, it doesn't feel like a huge boost like back then. They are in the relegation places, level on points with bottom club Darmstadt 98 and three points behind the first non-relegation place. The situation is tough, but not hopeless. "We're here, we're alive," said Martin Schmidt in a combative tone. This is not the time for a miracle. It's quite possible that there won't be any more tears at the end of the season.