Starting the European Championship year at ground zero: Julian Nagelsmann's fall from grace

National team - Starting the European Championship year at ground zero: Julian Nagelsmann's fall from grace

On New Year's Eve, Julian Nagelsmann was probably only too happy to put the old year behind him. Sacked by FC Bayern, false start as national coach - everything can only get better for him in 2024. Or can it?

The DFB bosses still see the 36-year-old as a stroke of luck on the way to the European Championship in his own country. And Nagelsmann himself sees the home tournament as a historic opportunity for the country, the players, the association, which is doomed to success - and not least for himself.

"It is an incredible privilege to be able to play a home European Championship," said Nagelsmann when looking ahead to 2024. The national coach with a short-term contract until July - and without any tournament experience - has known at least since the heavy impact of the test matches against Turkey (2:3) and Austria (0:2) in November just how big a fall the European Championship project holds for him personally. The extremes are: Celebrated and courted tournament coach - or just the next national coach to fail in a hurry?

European Championship project manager with solutions

"The sacking at Bayern is a day to remember," Nagelsmann recently said on ZDF's "Sportstudio" on the low point of 2023. Otherwise, he was at pains to reassure the doubting fans in Germany that he had solutions for everything as European Championship project manager. One key sentence was: "I knew that it was difficult, that it was a big task, but also a task that could be mastered."

The Herculean task looks like this just over 160 days before the opening match of the European Championship against Scotland in Munich on June 14: The DFB selection is at ground zero at the start of the tournament year. There is no personnel framework, no idea for the game, no self-image based on victories - and certainly no euphoria in the host country with regard to their own team.

The DFB management, once again very nervous after the change of coach from Hansi Flick to Nagelsmann, must proclaim slogans of perseverance. "The fever curve will rise," said President Bernd Neuendorf on the anticipation of the European Championship. Sure, the stadiums will be sold out. But 18 years after the 2006 World Cup, will this time only the many visiting fans experience a new summer fairytale in Germany?

Tough test opponents

Sports director Rudi Völler, who continues to orbit the DFB as an emergency team manager solution, is undauntedly hoping for a boost in spirits when the long international break ends with the test matches against France in Lyon and arch-rivals Holland in Frankfurt at the end of March. "We want to ignite something then," announced fan favorite Völler (63). Nagelsmann also sees the games as his chance. However, they are two prestigious duels with major risks and side effects. "We know that it won't be enough against the top nations," said returnee Mats Hummels after the last test match flops.

The key question is. How will Nagelsmann react? Will he manage to switch roles from club to national team coach in time? And how many more retro measures will he take? Back to the German virtues? Bring in more world champions from 2014? Hummels (35) and Thomas Müller (34) are already there. The soon-to-be 38-year-old Manuel Neuer should be back in goal after his protracted leg fracture in March. And Nagelsmann has even paved the way for a comeback for Toni Kroos, who turns 34 on Thursday.

Real Madrid veteran Kroos, who retired as an international in 2021 after 106 caps, as a European Championship savior? "Germany have a lot of strong midfielders. But I can imagine that Toni Kroos, with his routine, his cleverness, his simplicity and his organizational talent, would do the team good," Ottmar Hitzfeld, the former FC Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund coach, told the German Press Agency at the turn of the year.

The former Swiss national team coach also has a "very good opinion" of Nagelsmann, who he believes will achieve the turnaround in 2024. "I believe that the experimental phase is over and that he will primarily focus on familiarization next year. I am convinced of him. He's a strategist who will prepare the team well," says Hitzfeld (74).

European Championship opponents: Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland

Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland - these are the opponents against whom the DFB team will have to prevail in Group A as hosts of the European Championship. "Germany is and remains the favorite," believes Hitzfeld. Nagelsmann wants to "change something in the squad structure" in the little time he has left. More workers instead of attacking finesse is the watchword: "The advantage of being national team coach is that you can always put together a new squad."

Nagelsmann tried out 27 players in the four games against the USA (3:2), Mexico (2:2) and in the defeats against Turkey and Austria. He still has four more trial runs left. "Other things are needed at the level we're at right now," he said. The approach in the new year should be to "fight our way into games through work". There will also be positional shifts: Joshua Kimmich to right-back, captain Ilkay Gündogan further forward in midfield in front of "a block of six that thinks defensively".

Nagelsmann announced a decisive and consistent course. "There are a lot of decisions to be made that will keep me busy," he said, looking ahead to the coming months. A return to simplicity could be the ideal path. A simplicity that was emphasized by the national team players in unison after the 2:1 against France under interim coach Völler immediately after Flick's replacement in September.

Three botched tournaments under Joachim Löw (2018 World Cup, 2021 European Championship) and Flick (2022 World Cup) lie behind the DFB. The opening game was always the beginning of the early end. World Cup 2018, 0:1 against Mexico. Euro 2021, 0:1 against France. World Cup 2022, 1:2 against Japan. That's why tournament veteran Neuer said: "We want a sensible start to the tournament - without too much stress."