Potential route for Germany to win the European Championship title
Four rival nations stand poised to challenge Germany in the domestic EURO quarter-finals. As the competition progresses, the potential tournament layout is shaping up. Many signs suggest that top contenders might bow out in the quarter-finals.
On Tuesday night, Julian Nagelsmann's coaching team has their work cut out: In EURO Group C, the determination of Germany's quarter-finals opponent - England, Denmark, Slovenia, or Serbia - will transpire after 21:00. The second-ranked team will square off against Germany on Saturday at 21:00 in Dortmund. After the game versus Switzerland, Nagelsmann expressed in the ARD interview that the video analysts will be swamped with work. The video team has already scrutinized all four possible opponents, but for a detailed analysis, they must meticulously sift through the footage all night long, so they can refer back to the accumulated data during Wednesday's training sessions.
England is scheduled to play against Slovenia on Tuesday evening. The Three Lions lead Group C with four points, holding the superior position. Slovenia follows in second place, both on points and goals, alongside Denmark, which also boasts two points. Serbia is at the bottom with one point, but could jump to third place with a win against Denmark.
- Scenario 1: England victories vs. Slovenia, Denmark doesn't lose vs. Serbia: 1. England, 2. Denmark
- Scenario 2: England victories vs. Slovenia, Denmark suffers a loss vs. Serbia: 1. England, 2. Serbia
- Scenario 3: England and Slovenia draw, Denmark prevails vs. Serbia: 1. Denmark, 2. England (Special case: England outscores Slovenia in the draw more than Denmark outscores Serbia in a win with goal difference: Fairplay ranking deciphers between England and Denmark)
- Scenario 4: Both games end in draws: Height of the draws determines between Denmark and Slovenia for second place. In case of identical draws, fairplay ranking decides for second place. England would lead in any event.
- Scenario 5: England draws vs. Slovenia, Serbia wins: 1. England, 2. Serbia
- Scenario 6: England succumbs vs. Slovenia, Denmark wins: The victory height of Slovenia and Denmark decides first and second place. England would be in third place.
- Scenario 7: England falters, Slovenia advances: 1. Slovenia, 2. England
- Scenario 8: England falters, Serbia advances: 1. Slovenia, 2. England
Quarterfinals versus England, Denmark, Slovenia, or Serbia
It's apparent: If England triumphs against Slovenia, the Three Lions secure first place and can only meet the DFB team in the final. An English victory remains the most likely scenario, despite unsatisfactory performances thus far. In this scenario, the outcome of the concurrent game between Denmark and Serbia decides Germany's quarter-finals adversary. Denmark would already guarantee second place with a draw, putting the European champion of 1992 in an advantageous position. It would be the fourth EURO match between Germany and Denmark. Germany triumphed in the first home EURO in 1988 (2:0), Denmark emerged victorious in the final in 1992 (2:0), and Germany won again in 2012 (2:1).
Serbia and Germany have yet to spar at a major tournament. In 2010 in South Africa, Serbia stunned everyone in the group stage with a 1:0 win. A showdown against Slovenia has only transpired once before, in an insignificant friendly in 2005 (1:0). Germany and England have faced off three times in the European Championship: in 1996, Oliver Bierhoff & Co. bested England in the semifinals (1:0), 2000 and 2021 England emerged victorious (1:0, 2:0).
The knockout stage layout won't be solidified until Wednesday evening, once the group stage draws to a close. The third-place team rule permits a great deal of flexibility. The layout can only be finalized once it's apparent which groups the four best third-place teams hail from. It's likely that groups D (currently Austria) and E (Slovakia) will be able to set their sights on the Round of 16. For Group A, Hungary is already sealed as the third-placed team and appears promising. Groups B, C, and F will determine the last contender for the Round of 16 among themselves. It's highly plausible that a team with merely two points from three games will qualify.
Quarterfinals against Spain, Semifinals against Portugal?
Let's hope for twists in the final group stage matches, as the layout might appear as follows from the Round of 16. It's noticeable that there will be no matches between the top favored teams yet:
- Spain - Slovakia (in Cologne)
- Germany - Denmark (in Dortmund)
- Portugal - Hungary (in Frankfurt)
- Netherlands - Romania (in Düsseldorf)
- Belgium - Austria (in Munich)
- France - Turkey (in Leipzig)
- England - Czech Republic (in Gelsenkirchen)
- Switzerland - Italy (in Berlin)
In the quarterfinals, assuming there are no upsets, the German team would face their first significant challenge against Spain on the coming Friday. In Stuttgart, Spain could potentially be Germany's adversary. The other matches in the Round of 16 also promise excitement:
- Spain - Germany (in Stuttgart)
- Portugal - Netherlands (in Hamburg)
- Belgium - France (in Berlin)
- England - Italy (in Düsseldorf)
Here's the paraphrased text:
If Germany knocks out the current Euro Cup top team, the semifinal in Munich (July 9, 9 p.m.) would be scheduled four days later. Teams like Portugal or the Netherlands might be up against Germany then. Currently, Portugal has a secured top spot in the bracket, but the Netherlands is still at risk of dropping to second or even third place in challenging Group D. If they maintain their lead, a match against Germany would only happen in the final. In that case, France would be the probable semifinal opponent for the DFB team.
In the final in Berlin (July 14, 9 p.m.), Germany and France could go head to head. Alternatively, Germany might square off against England in the semifinals instead of the Round of 16.
- Semifinal 1: Germany - Portugal (in Munich)
- Semifinal 2: France - England (in Dortmund)
- Final: Germany - France (in Berlin)
