Is the German national team overrated?

The German national soccer team just can't get back on its feet. Every attempt to take an upright step is followed by the next fall. This gives little hope for the coming year. But everything has to get better. But how?

We need a summer fairytale. That's what Rudi Völler said. He practically ordered it. And "Auntie Käthe" is allowed to do so, as she (i.e. he) is the most important liaison between the German national soccer team and its supporters, who have become fewer and fewer in recent years. The idea is that 2024 will be just as good as 2006, when Germany welcomed the world with open arms and was inspired by itself. But the times were different, the world was not in turmoil like it was at the end of 2023. Everything was more carefree. At least in these parts. The Hindu Kush and Iraq were far away, even emotionally. Unlike Ukraine and Israel today. And so this summer's tournament, the European Championship at home, is also based on the hope that soccer and the host nation Germany will ignite a healing force for the people and the democracies under attack.

That's quite a heavy rucksack to pack. It has to be carried by the footballers with the eagle on their chest. However, they themselves are in urgent need of healing. They had once again slumped under the weight of expectations in November. They are miles away from an upright, even proud gait after the at times appalling performances against Turkey and Austria. The national team is a sick, stooped man who is being beaten up on from all sides. Even from people within his own association.

After Christmas, DFB vice-president Ralph-Uwe Schaffert stomped all over the players like a wild bull, taking Joshua Kimmich and İlkay Gündoğan to task and suggesting a "radical" change of personnel. Another source of fire. Where extinguishing water would have been needed, the man from Lower Saxony resorted to oil. This outburst was not well received, and Völler received an official response. The man who longs for the summer fairytale like perhaps no other once again swung himself up as the team's first protector.

"No matter what it is, it has to be fixed"

But what kind of team is this? Who is supposed to understand what's wrong with them if not even the players know? "Honestly, sometimes I don't understand what happens to us when we put on the DFB jersey," Antonio Rüdiger recently marveled: "Everyone at the clubs actually delivers quite decent performances. "But there's no time for in-depth research into the causes. In six months' time, the sense of achievement ordered by the highest authorities must finally be achieved. And until then, the nation must be brought behind the team as the 12th man. Rüdiger, a candidate for the vacant role of defensive boss, told 11Freunde: "No matter what it is, it has to be fixed. We have a home European Championship." The principle applies: Find the error! Like a picture in a puzzle book. Only there is a guaranteed solution.

German national coach Julian Nagelsmann has understood what the clock of the year is now striking. He strolled into the sports studio in mid-December to send out big words and announcements to the soccer nation. Kimmich, the driving force in central midfield, will probably be transferred. To right-back, ending a grueling debate in the country. The mood had clearly swung towards a transfer. And Gündoğan will also be moved. But not quite as extreme as Kimmich. The national team captain should remain in the center, but play more offensively. Nagelsmann is hoping that Gündoğan will provide the kind of great impetus that he once did at Manchester City.

Will all this be enough to generate more optimism? So far, there has been no survey that has asked about this trend. One should not be too confident that mere announcements will change the wind. But at least for the internal climate, the coach's words are good enough to cause a minor hurricane. Because no player can be sure of anything anymore. Except, of course, Manuel Neuer, who will return to goal as number one when Germany take on France and the Netherlands in March. Too much has been broken in recent years for a new coach with a bit of carrot for players like Robert Andrich, Grischa Prömel or Pascal Groß and a bit of stick for out-of-form stars to act as a lightning putty for all the broken pieces left behind by the two former national coaches Joachim Löw and Hansi Flick.

Only the next six months count for Nagelsmann

Löw's disengaged resistance to advice and Flick's desperate experiments. These times should be over for good, but fiddlesticks. Nagelsmann is cashing in everything that has gone before and rolling the dice again. He is taking a full risk. But what does he actually have to lose? The DFB squad is miles away from being a stately structure that just needs a few stabilization measures to defy the raging storms around it. There is no well-functioning axis (or any axis at all), the hierarchy has been blown in all directions by the storms of recent years (since the Russia debacle in 2018), i.e. poor results and experiments. Perhaps there has rarely been a better time to reset everything. Nagelsmann doesn't have to focus on the medium or long-term future. He can fully focus his work on the next six months. After that, as things currently stand, his time with the association will end.

Nagelsmann therefore does not have to think about what comes after Mats Hummels and Thomas Müller. He doesn't have to worry about whether Toni Kroos, if he does return, will still play a role in the DFB team after the European Championship. He doesn't have to have a plan for the 2026 World Cup in mind. But this scenario of absolute freedom also has a big catch. No matter what the coach plans, it should work. Also for his future path. After all, with the huge burden of not having achieved what he should have achieved either at FC Bayern Munich (his time ended more than three years earlier than planned) or with the national team (he probably has to reach at least the quarter-finals, more likely the semi-finals), he would drop down a few levels in the search for a new challenge from being a hyped coaching talent.

Leadership, communication, emotion

So what needs to happen for this team to get its act together, for this team to realize the potential that is attributed to it? What might be overestimated? The answer to this is difficult to digest. It needs more stability defensively and a clear plan offensively. In short: this team needs to improve everywhere, significantly better. It needs leadership, clear tasks, communication and more emotion. The coach had missed these recently and made this clear. The operation on the team is a global task for the coaching team. To be solved in a few joint sessions and only as a collective.

While France, with Kylian Mbappé, and England, with Harry Kane, have players who can save cucumber performances with one action, Germany (still) lack this top quality. Top talents Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz or this season's strong winger Leroy Sané can provide big moments. However, they have not yet been able to do so with the naturalness of world stars, which has long since taken root in the minds of their opponents.

Where is the world class?

How many world stars does the German team have? Manuel Neuer, when he is in his best form. But will he reach it after his serious injury? Gündoğan, if he plays like he did in England, which he doesn't do at FC Barcelona. And what else? A lot of talent, great talent, of course, but also (too?) many players who are at best at a high Bundesliga level or who do not (or no longer) fully exploit their abilities. As different as the reasons may be. Serge Gnabry comes to mind here, as does Kai Havertz often enough. Or, as an extreme case, Timo Werner, of course.

This is most evident in the well-known problem positions in the center of attack, where the tireless fan favorite Niclas Füllkrug does a good job, but is not a difference-maker at the highest level. And potential candidates such as Marvin Ducksch or Kevin Behrens are not suitable as penalty area messiahs either. Things don't look much better at left back, where David Raum could be the man of choice. And in central defense? Since Mats Hummels and Jérôme Boateng, there hasn't been a duo that has been stable in the long term. Is the potential really as great as the DFB and the team think? Or will there soon be three coaches without a solution or recipe for success, indicating that truth and perception are far apart?

The search for stability and attitude

Nagelsmann now has until the end of March to come up with a plan that works. Then there are the tough rehearsals, France and the Netherlands await. It will be a gigantic task for the coach, perhaps the most gigantic of his career. He has to develop something that he can convey to his team in the shortest possible time. Hovering over him is the shadow of one-game returnee Völler, who filled the vacuum between Flick and Nagelsmann with a 2-1 win against the French, creating a go-ahead feeling, even if the opponents did not put up much of a fight.

And the shadow of his own idea hovers over him. His soccer is considered highly demanding. Some claim that it can be too demanding. So far, the team has said that this is not the case. But when Nagelsmann explained how Kai Havertz should interpret the role of left-back, for example, the soccer nation was at a loss for words. Everything blew up in the 36-year-old's face afterwards. The experts in the country went into a rage and could no longer be calmed down. Even the visit to the stadium with girlfriend Lena was blown up into a scandal.

Meanwhile, Nagelsmann said when he took office that the national team's style of play would "not be as complex as in club soccer". Rather, it is designed to "give the players stability". So far, however, they have continued to stumble through what has perhaps long been a crisis for the DFB team, flanked by a permanently crisis-ridden association that continues to look for a stance on major issues (the awarding of the World Cup to Saudi Arabia is the key word) and continues to reliably set itself on fire from within, as the "Süddeutsche Zeitung" wrote about Schaffert's reckoning. The road to the summer fairytale is a long one and the wish may be based on a completely false assumption: after all, fairytales often end brutally and tragically.