How Union Berlin could put the brakes on German soccer
In old soccer, there was always that one moment when fans of all clubs were suddenly forced to become fans of the last remaining team in European competitions. "You have to think about the five-year ranking!" was the request, and someone always rummaged through the databases and declared German soccer a failure. At that time, it was all about possible qualification places for the Champions League and therefore also for the other European competitions. However, the compulsory order was lifted at the latest with the reform of the top flight for the 2018/2019 season.
The previously important five-year ranking was for nerds and fatalists who feared that the Bundesliga would fall behind the French one-team league led by Qatari billionaire club Paris Saint-Germain. With the reform, there were now four fixed starting places for the four best nations in the five-year ranking and, thanks to Bayern Munich and sufficient performances from other clubs such as Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund, it was always enough for the top four.
That would hardly have been enough before the reform. After all, fourth place meant only two fixed starting places, which was a thing of the past. The story of the all-important five-year ranking was over. It became boring for those who didn't want to comply with the compulsory order, but would much rather point the finger at other clubs.
Why every single game is important
There is now good news for the very clientele who want to blame individual clubs for the downfall of German soccer. So there is now also good news for those who want to add "they are destroying German soccer" to Union Berlin's disastrous series of defeats. This news is, of course, connected to the new Champions League, which will be launched next year with 36 clubs for the first time and in the so-called Swiss format. This only means that there will no longer be a group stage. It also means that there will be even more matches for the participating teams.
In this league of 36 teams, they will play against eight other, not entirely randomly drawn teams before something like a knockout phase begins (for details, please read up on the statistics fox Kevin Schulte here ). The clubs can of course also make extra money with these extra games in order to further expand their supremacy in the national leagues and leverage the competition even more.
Because 36 clubs rather than just 32 are taking part in this new premier league, four more starting places are suddenly available and two of them go to the top-placed leagues in the newly introduced one-year ranking. In official UEFA parlance, this is calledthe "season club coefficient ranking" and is based on the points gained by all clubs in the respective association in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League in a given season. These are awarded for wins and draws in all phases of the competitions, there are bonus points for qualifying for the knockout phase of the top flight and much more. Then all the points of a country's participants are added up and divided by the number of clubs participating from the respective association.
How the Bundesliga can take eight clubs to Europe
If the Bundesliga really does finish among the top two nations at the end of the season, it will receive five starting places in the Champions League, two in the Europa League and one in the Conference League. Eight teams would then be able to compete in Europe. Almost half the league. Under very specific conditions, even more starting places are possible. But these conditions are so specific that they are unlikely to materialize.
What seems so theoretical is important for every single game played by a German representative. Every early exit of a Bundesliga team reduces a country's points simply because the team no longer collects any points. If, for example, Union Berlin leave the Champions League group stage with zero points, they will only contribute the four points they have collected, which amounts to just 0.571 points in a group of seven participants. The remaining clubs would still only contribute a seventh of their points to the standings.
The starting conditions are still almost perfect. This is primarily due to the failure of CA Osasuna. The Spanish representative lost to FC Brugge in the Conference League play-offs and will only contribute 0.063 points to the Spanish result as a result. Every Real Madrid victory this season has been marred by this disaster. Only twice in the past eight seasons has a country been able to secure a place in the top two nations when not all of the competing clubs have reached the group stage. Both times, in the 2015/2016 and 2018/2019 seasons, it was the Premier League, which was already ahead of the competition.
What the current situation is
Things are still looking okay for the Bundesliga this season. With 6,357 points collected so far, German soccer is in fourth place. Of the top leagues, only Italy's Serie A can boast a better score with 6.571 points. However, the giants from the English Premier League (6.25 points) and the heavyweights from Spain's La Liga (6.187), albeit already decimated in the case of Spain, are just waiting for the Bundesliga teams to slip up. Thanks to good results in the qualifying competitions, Belgium's quintet led by Champions League participant Royal Antwerp is currently ahead of the top five leagues with 7.4 points. Turkey have made a lightning start at the top. Although they are only in the running with three of the four teams left after Adana Demirspor dropped out, the Istanbul trio of Galatasaray, Fenerbahçe and Besiktas have collected most of the 8.75 points so far.
A look at recent years reveals that while it could all come down to a top score for Turkey, they are unlikely to be rewarded with a place in the new Champions League. In the last seven seasons, the places have been fairly easy to fill anyway. England and Spain claimed 11 of the 14 possible top spots, while Italy last year, the Netherlands the year before and the Bundesliga in the 2019/2020 pandemic season were the only three leagues to break the dominance of the giant leagues. It was particularly close in August 2020. Bayern Munich had reached the final of the Champions League and only the triumph sealed by the brilliant Kingsley Coman allowed Germany to overtake England. It was the only year in which the Premier League would have been denied another place in the top flight.
The Bundesliga scored 18.714 points that season, a figure that has not been equaled since and is usually not enough. And that's why every win by a Bundesliga team counts these days. Does Union Berlin not even think about the one-year ranking? The same goes for Borussia Dortmund, who receive the delivery order today in the Champions League against Newcastle United. Points for the Bundesliga are not points for the Premier League in this game.
If 1.FC Union Berlin manages to advance in the Champions League, they could significantly boost Germany's one-year ranking and increase the chances of the Bundesliga sending more than four teams to Europe. In the new format of the Champions League, every match counts, and Borussia Dortmund's performance against Newcastle United in the Champions League could also contribute to Germany's total points.
Source: www.ntv.de
