German aggressor impressed, France hates
After 18 thrilling preliminary round matches in front of record-breaking crowds at Lille's Pierre Mauroy Stadium, the Olympic basketball tournament moves to the capital, where medals will be awarded from Tuesday onwards at the grand Paris Bercy Arena. The three favorites, USA, Canada, and Germany, remained unbeaten. France, Serbia, and Australia each finished second in their groups; Brazil and Greece also qualified for the knockout rounds as the best-placed third-placed teams. Spain, Japan, Puerto Rico, and South Sudan, however, failed to progress from the group stage. Germany's national team, the reigning world champions, not only started with a perfect 3-0 record but also confirmed their status as one of the absolute top teams with increasingly dominant performances against Japan, Brazil, and France. Greece awaits in the quarterfinals.
"Biggest Threat to USA"
"The first half my team played today was simply outstanding. It's hard to describe. I'm more than satisfied. I haven't looked at the other teams yet, but we'll be well-prepared for the quarterfinals too," said Germany's head coach Gordon Herbert, who was in high spirits after his team's third win in a row - and the 18th in their last 20 international tournaments.
An 85:71 demolition of the hosts on the final group day catapulted Germany into the circle of top medal contenders. The manner in which the reigning Olympic silver medalists were humiliated caught the eye. "Germany and Canada, obviously. The eye test shows clearly that these two teams pose the biggest threat to Team USA," said NBC co-commentator and three-time NBA champion Dwyane Wade on Saturday.
"I'd rather tame a lion than teach a cat to roar," Herbert said this week, referring to the aggression level of his team. "Our confidence level is immense," said Moritz Wagner after the win against France. "We want to be the aggressor, know exactly who we are and who we have beside us. We have no fear, we attack, are the more aggressive team on both ends. We're not here to lose."
Franz Wagner didn't just dunk once, but twice over the French, while a smiling Dennis Schröder sank jump shot after jump shot. In the end, Germany's top players each scored 26 points - the fifth-highest scoring games in the history of the DBB at Olympic Games (Detlef Schrempf holds the record with 36 points, and places two to four are also his).
"If we play like this, we can beat anyone. But we mustn't get carried away, there are still eight very good teams in the tournament. Now it's 'do or die', we can't afford any more mistakes," warned Daniel Theis ahead of the game against Greece on Tuesday (from 11 am). The Greeks come primarily through the extraordinary powers of their absolute megastar Giannis Antetokounmpo. The athletic wrecking ball not only counts among the NBA's elite but is also unstoppable at these Olympic Games.
With 81 points overall and 27.0 per game, the "Greek Freak" leads the scoring list by a wide margin. Almost 70 percent from the field (68.9% FG) and nearly ten free throw attempts per game clearly show: once Antetokounmpo has the ball in his huge hands, it's often too late. Fortunately for Germany, the rest of the team leaves something to be desired. Only one other player (Vasilis Toliopoulos) scores in double figures, and Greece ranks as the weakest of all quarterfinal teams in both offensive rating and three-point percentage.
As long as Germany maintains its offensive momentum and manages to neutralize Antetokounmpo or his teammates on defense, it should face no problems. In their last encounter, Germany eliminated Greece in the quarterfinals of EuroBasket 2022, marking the beginning of an unprecedented run for the DBB.
Internal Struggles for the Hosts
Like Germany, Canada is also experiencing its best era in basketball. Last year, the North Americans won bronze at the World Cup, their first-ever medal in the event. They are participating in the Olympics for the first time since 2000 (placing seventh) and are aiming to improve on their only Olympic medal, a silver in 1936, when they lost to the USA in a torrential downpour.
In the "Group of Death," Canada remained undefeated and held their own against Greece, Australia, and Spain. Led by All-NBA guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (19.0 PPG), top scorer RJ Barrett (21.0 PPG), and Dillon Brooks (14.3 PPG, 60.0% 3P%), the NBA-talented team has been soaring through the tournament with a perfect blend of offense, defense, and pace. There's still room for improvement, particularly for Jamal Murray, who is far behind his usual form (5.7 PPG, 10% 3P%).
It seems unlikely that the hosts could become a stumbling block on the path to a medal. France, the three-time silver medalist (1948, 2000, 2021), has the home advantage and Victor Wembanyama leading the team in points (17.0 PPG), rebounds (10.7 RPG), assists (3.0), and defense (4.7 steals and blocks per game). However, apart from Wembanyama, France's "Equipe Tricolore" is struggling, scoring the third-fewest points among quarterfinalists and lagging behind in pace.
Veteran Evan Fournier criticized national coach Vincent Collet's playing style after a decisive loss in the third game, further indicating frayed nerves. "We lack the basics. I believe our playing style is no longer up-to-date, and we're paying the price. These days, offense is the best defense. This isn't the basketball of the 1990s or 2000s, where you can defend in the half-court. Your offense is crucial, balance, your transition game. Especially against a strong team like Germany."
Canada had already beaten France in a warm-up game (85:73). Since then, the form curves of both teams have been moving in opposite directions. Despite what the French coach says, "They have more to lose than we do in this position. It's 0:0 on Tuesday," France appears stuck between generations and not solid enough to pressure one of the tournament's most dangerous teams for 40 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander is confident, stating, "We've played against many good teams and beaten them all. We can do a few things better, but it was okay. Our goal is not to lose any games."
USA: Unstoppable and Improving
Brazil qualified from Group B as the best third-placed team despite losses to Germany and France, thanks to Bruno Caboclo's 33 points and 17 rebounds in the decisive game against Japan. The South Americans have only one NBA player (Gui Santos of the Golden State Warriors) but six players averaging at least eight points per game. They dominate the offensive glass and are the best 3-point shooting team so far, with 11 makes per game at a sizzling 45.3% clip. These two elements are among the few weaknesses of the USA that opponents could potentially exploit.
The first foray of the Brazilians into an Olympic semi-final since 1968 and the first medal since bronze in 1964 is likely to remain just a dream. Not only because they have never beaten their quarter-final opponent at the Olympics (0-9), but because these American players seem absolutely invincible so far. After a perfect 5-0 record in preparation, the favorites also sailed through group C and enter the knockout rounds as the number one seed.
The individual quality of the squad is too great, the basketball played by the NBA stars too overwhelming, and the lineup roulette that head coach Steve Kerr can play too complex. Kevin Durant (23 points) shone in game one against Serbia, Bam Adebayo (18 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks) excelled in the win against South Sudan, and Anthony Edwards was on fire in the blowout win against Puerto Rico (26 points in 17 minutes). All formations are held together by a timelessly dominant LeBron James, who is the third-best scorer (14.3 PPG), third-best rebounder (6.7 RPG), and best assist provider (7.3 APG) on his team.
"They are very physical, have a lot of good shooters, are the best team at offensive rebounds, and play hard. We need to be well-prepared," warns Kerr ahead of the Tuesday clash. Despite having five players in their roster who hit at least 40 percent of their threes, the Brazilians have the third-weakest offense according to offensive rating and the worst defense of all remaining teams. Meanwhile, the USA has been getting better as the tournament progresses - and Steph Curry hasn't even warmed up yet (7.3 PPG at 26.3 percent three-point shooting). It's a clear case for the top favorites.
FIBA-Bogdanovic is on fire
Waiting in the semi-finals is the winner of the Serbia vs. Australia match. Both opponents have already played against the USA: Australia in a test in Abu Dhabi, Serbia both there and in group C on the first day. These teams know each other. The "Boomers" also won against the team of Svetislav Pesic on July 16, 84-73, and demonstrated their preferred style of basketball: aggressive defense and on the boards, ultra-fast transition from defense to offense, and a lot of balance in attack.
Five NBA players score in double figures, led by big man Jock Landale (17.7 points and 9.7 rebounds per game), all-rounder Josh Giddey (15.0 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game), and "FIBA-Patty" Mills. The veteran shone in the test match win with 28 points and has maintained his strong form since (13.3 points, 41.2 percent three-point shooting). To secure their third consecutive semi-final appearance, Coach Brian Goorjian's team must eliminate the reigning vice-world champion. Serbia won two workmanlike victories against Puerto Rico and South Sudan without shining, but still reached the quarter-finals for the fifth consecutive time.
In contrast to the duel in Abu Dhabi, Pesic can now access his full player contingent and best lineups this time. This means not only that triple NBA MVP Nikola Jokic will play more minutes and dominate the interior as usual (18.7 points, 11.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists on average with 75.0 percent two-pointers), but also that one of the most dangerous scorers and shooters in international basketball will be back.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is among the top scorers in this tournament, averaging 19.0 points per game and shooting 52.9% from three-point range. He recently became the all-time leading scorer in the history of the Serbian Basketball Federation. In their last game victory, "Bogi" (30 points, 8 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks) and the "Joker" (22 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists) dominated South Sudan in a dynamic one-two punch.
Serbia distributed a tournament-high 31 assists as a team. Despite starting the tournament with struggles from downtown and preferring to rely on their defense, they have scored the second-most points and have the third-most efficient offense among the quarterfinalists. This gives Pesic's team a theoretical advantage over Australia and a chance for redemption against LeBron, Curry, Durant, and company on Thursday.
"In the upcoming quarters, Germany and Canada, along with the USA, are expected to be the top contenders for the NBA medal. Dwyane Wade, NBA champion and NBC co-commentator, highlighted Germany and Canada as the biggest threats to Team USA."
"After their impressive performance against France, Germany's confidence is sky-high. With their offensive momentum and the ability to neutralize strong opponents like Greece's Giannis Antetokounmpo, they have a good chance of advancing further in the tournament."
