Experience a weakened dollar, soaring costs, and unparalleled visitor influx this summer in Europe.

Enjoy Europe this summer despite a weaker dollar, surging expenses, and a staggering influx of tourists.

The current situation appears chaotic just by glancing at the headlines. Famous sites are increasing their entrance fees, hotel rooms are scarce, and the dollar's diminished value against both the pound and the euro is causing concern.

One notable issue is the influx of American tourists to Europe. Tom Jenkins, CEO of the European Tourism Organization, has remarked on the significant increase in American travelers visiting the continent. His figures reveal that 2023 surpassed the numbers from 2019, with even more record-breaking volumes expected this year.

Kayla Zeigler, owner of Destination Europe, shares a similar sentiment and is sending an unprecedented number of clients to Europe this summer. However, Graham Carter of Unforgettable Travel, a tour operator with a predominantly American clientele, suggests that many travelers might feel Europe is no longer affordable.

"People are questioning whether Europe is worth it," says Carter. "It's getting booked up early, and prices are on the rise. There's been a massive increase in travel demand, and a lot of places are bumping up their prices due to this."

But is this a waste of time and money? According to experts, it's ultimately about balance.

A dilapidated dollar

First and foremost, Americans traveling to Europe face the issue of a weakened dollar. As of June 5th, it was worth approximately 91 to 92 euro cents, although this is better than the December 2020-January 2021 low when it stood at 82 cents. However, it's still down from a year earlier when a dollar equated to about 95 euro cents. For those planning a trip to the UK, it's a similar story. One year ago, $1 earned 80 British pounds; as of June 5th, it was 78 British pounds, a drop from the September peak of 83 pounds.

It's not only the UK and Eurozone affected; the dollar is down year over year against 11 European currencies. This includes Bosnia, Bulgaria, Denmark, Iceland, Poland, Romania, and Sweden. While these smaller changes might seem insignificant, they can add up on a credit card bill when you return home. For instance, a 500 euro hotel room would cost $543 at the current mid-market rate compared to $480 in September.

Though the dollar is down against several currencies, it remains relatively strong in relation to the Turkish lira. Americans exchanging dollars for lira could expect to receive an extra 11 lira as of this week compared to last June when they would have received 21 lira.

... and extraordinary price hikes at accommodations

High inflation and rising fees are problems faced not only by tourists visiting iconic attractions but also those in pursuit of a place to stay. The Eiffel Tower will raise prices by 20% from June 17, while the Hagia Sophia now charges 25 euros. Venice has also increased day-tripper fees to 5 euros on peak days.

The dollar is down against the euro, which makes on-the-ground expenses trickier.

Skyrocketing hotel bills have a more significant impact on visitors. According to Jenkins, "prices have increased quite dramatically" in major cities. Tim Hentschel, CEO of HotelPlanner.com, corroborates this trend. "We're seeing several hotels charging $500 a night that were $300 last year," he says.

However, this may not be a simple price hike. Hentschel points out that it's rather due to the increasing occupancy levels. As hotels fill up, their remaining rooms become more expensive. "It's a scenario where the hotel is selling the last 10% of their inventory, and the prices spike because of compression," he explains.

"Once you hit 90% occupancy, a $350 room could surge to $500. It's not as if the entire hotel is selling at $500 – a lot sold at $250. It's the people who leave their bookings to the last minute paying $500." Hentschel identifies with that situation as he is, unapologetically, a procrastinator.

The 2024 hotel rate predictions from Hotel Monitor, part of American Express Global Business Travel, provide evidence to support Hentschel's hypothesis. Major European cities might see increases of 9-11% in room rates, with Paris, Amsterdam, Dublin, Berlin, Stockholm, Barcelona, and London all expected to go up by over 9%. Bottom line: start planning your summer vacation sooner rather than later.

[image: Prices increasing with occupancy]Campaign for a positive direction in tourism and hospitality: Early bookings can help you avoid sky-high prices.

[image: Predicted rate increases by city]Expected 2024 room rate increases in major European cities, according to Hotel Monitor's industry predictions.

The good news is that Hentschel reveals these price hikes aren't universal; they mainly impact the higher-end hotels. His recommendation is to decrease the star ratings to find an attractive deal. At the lower end, one- and two-star accommodations lack the pricing power. The same principle applies to hotels slightly distant from the destination. For instance, he suggests going to Murcia instead of Marbella or Milos instead of Mykonos - you'll get the same stunning sunsets and Instagram-worthy scenery for a fraction of the cost. These are not downgrades; they're places that haven't graced the top 10 list of Conde Nast for the past decade.

When it comes to cities, consider opting for a town beyond its outskirts. In London's case, five-star hotels are charging a whopping £1,000 (over $1,270) a night. However, three- and four-star hotels in areas beyond London's M25 outer ringroad are struggling to get £100 a night. What's the London insider tip? Windsor, home of the royals, just a 29-minute train ride from Paddington station.

The ideal choice? A cozy three-star hotel in a secondary destination. This should provide a great deal, even in the dismal summer of 2024.

Cheaper airfares are back

Swap Mykonos for quieter Milos, advises Hotelplanner's Tim Hentschel.

Surprisingly, flight fares from the US to Europe are on a downward spiral, reveals Hayley Berg, Chief Economist at Hopper. Her research - an amalgamation of all international flight fare searches - demonstrates that the average air fare from the US to Europe this summer has fallen 16% compared to 2023, averaging at $892 round-trip.

Surprisingly, Europe is a manageable bargain this year.

The major destinations also reap the benefits of this trend. According to June data from Hopper, the average round-trip airfare from the US to London has dropped 21% year-on-year. In continental Europe, Rome, Barcelona, Athens, and Paris have each witnessed equally formidable decreases of 34%, 37%, 28%, and 38% respectively.

While these fares aren't absolute bargains, Berg coins it as "a path back to normal prices."

Steering clear of the crowds

Remember the crowds? With tourism numbers soaring and new anti-tourism measures like Venice's daytripper fee or frustrated residents of Mallorca demanding to stop the influx, some travelers seek to stay away from popular European destinations.

Jenkins highlights a "softening in demand" for "main cultural cities."

Carter's clients prefer to travel to lesser-visited months like May, June, and September to dodge the crowds and the heat, forgoing the sweltering summer months. However, the lesser-visited months can also be packed, so his clients are opting for less glamorous destinations.

"We've seen many clients looking to avoid places like Venice, Rome, Florence. They still want to visit Italy, but they wish to avoid the crowds," he says.

The year 2023 witnessed a record-breaking 134 million "arrivals" in Italy - the most visitors in history as per data from Italy's tourism ministry. About half were tourists, and the prospects for 2024 are looking even more optimistic, thanks to Tourism Minister Daniela Santanchè's "targeted strategy."

2024 has seen multiple anti-tourism protests from Mallorcan residents.

Zeigler advises her clients, about to visit tourist-heavy destinations, on the upcoming crowds. "We alert our clients booking popular destinations this year on the crowds, and often arrange their tours and activities around peak crowd times. We're also booking them accommodation slightly outside the prime locations, such as Praiano and Ravello if they're visiting the Amalfi Coast," she says.

Carter is nudging his reluctant travelers to less-crowded regions, such as Puglia or Sicily, or, alternatively, recommending other European countries entirely. Case in point: Slovenia for its mountains and vineyards, over Italy; and Croatia for its islands over Greece. Ireland and Portugal are also becoming popular among his clients.

Jenkins predicts that Paris - an Olympic host city - might see less tourism during the Games. As a result, proper accommodation outside the city center would provide a more enjoyable experience. Evidence? Paris's hotel rates have risen by 8% so far, far lower than the 38% increase predicted by Amex GBT analysis.

People who still want to visit popular destinations need to watch out for higher costs when it comes to extras and activities, according to Hentschel, who recently booked a client trip to the Amalfi Coast complete with a 60-minute massage priced at $400. Hentschel explains, "Travel prices have hit new heights, and inflation is high. Activities have seen a significant increase." These add-ons are also booking up quickly, so you'll want to act fast if you're keen on experiencing them.

Another travel expert, Zeigler, notes that her clients' on-the-ground expenses are around 30% more expensive than in 2019.

Is it too late to plan a European summer?

Can you still arrange a European summer holiday, or has it become a missed opportunity?

To avoid rising prices, Berg recommends reserving that flight right away. Prices will only rise further. Alternatively, if you're flexible, she suggests booking in September because there might be a similar drop in prices compared to the previous year, alongside the typical 10-30% price decrease that occurs in autumn. Or, you might want to wait until 2025 when she forecasts that fares between the US and Europe will remain the same or even go down.

Hentschel suggests considering "alternative accommodations" for late bookers. This could involve dropping a star rating, staying closer to where you want to be, or staying at a bed and breakfast.

For Carter, there are still some spots available in July and August, but don't expect any last-minute discounts. Plus, he's candid about what he thinks: "I wouldn't even bother with summer this year. I'd consider autumn 2024 or spring 2025 if you want to get any value from your trip."

If you want to hang out in London's parks this summer, it may be best to stay outside the city and commute in.

Hentschel emphasizes the importance of planning in advance and saving money: "The earlier you book, the more money you'll save." As European travel numbers continue to increase, consider this your mantra.

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Despite the weakened dollar and surging expenses, many American tourists are still flocking to Europe. According to Tom Jenkins, CEO of the European Tourism Organization, the number of American travelers visiting Europe in 2024 surpassed the numbers from 2019, with even more record-breaking volumes expected this year.

The dollar's decline against several European currencies, including the euro and the pound, means that on-the-ground expenses in Europe are becoming more costly for American travelers. For example, a 500 euro hotel room would cost $543 at the current mid-market rate, compared to $480 in September 2023.

[A dilapidated dollar is making on-the-ground expenses trickier.]