Delaying Action on Future Battery Advancements?
The progress in Electrocar battery technology is notable, yet improved range and quicker charging speeds remain desired enhancements. This dilemma might be causing hesitation among potential buyers: Should one buy now or wait for better batteries?
One reason for the slow sales of electric cars could be the fear of missing out on a revolutionary battery technology. It's not about distrust in current technology but rather uncertainties about potential breakthroughs soon. Waiting too long might not yield beneficial results.
Electric vehicle tech is evolving much faster than conventional cars, and while incremental advancements have been achieved in the latter after years, electric drive and batteries continue to grow. Though dramatic leaps in the short term are doubtful, the trend is definitely meaningful improvements. Over the past few decades, costs for Lithium-Ion batteries have fallen by anywhere between 30 to 50 times, and energy density has tripled. However, this rapid pace isn't sustainable; instead, we're looking at continuous growth.
Implementation of New Technologies in Mass Production is Gradual
Radical changes in battery technology are not expected to happen overnight. Researchers demonstrate significant advancements regularly, particularly in materials science. Yet, it may take several years or even decades for these innovations to materialize in mass-produced vehicles. Manufacturers' announcements are closer to implementation, with Chinese suppliers particularly eager to showcase their new products ahead of competitors. However, it's unclear when, in which cars, or at what cost these developments will reach the market. Some critical factors can aid in making informed decisions.
For the average motorist, essential aspects of future batteries are mostly twofold: potential range and charging times. A larger volumetric energy density value (Wh per liter) means a smaller battery size or a more extended range for a fixed build volume.
Currently, the energy density of standard Lithium-Ion batteries, on the Nickel basis, is approximately 450 Wh per liter. A typical electric car battery with a 50 kWh capacity and around 400 kilometers of range requires around 111 liters - nearly double the average fuel volume of a compact car with an internal combustion engine. For some vehicles, cell energy densities are provided. These are generally lower than for the entire battery, as housing, wiring, and electronics are not added to the calculation.
Range may increase but not by much
In the upcoming years, most cars are predicted to remain within the current range. An electric car with a 1000 km range is not expected in the near future. Waiting for such extreme improvements from a consumer standpoint would mean wasted time. Significant advancements are expected only for vehicles featuring solid-state batteries. With this still not series-ready battery variant, energy densities above 700 Wh are achievable. Series-production cars with solid-state batteries are scheduled for the end of the decade, but they will first target luxury or rare niche vehicles.
Despite ranges of favorable cars increasing over the next few years due to more efficient engines, smarter battery packs, and decreasing kWh costs for cells, significant leaps are unlikely. For those needing significantly larger ranges than current options, both range and charging speed need to be considered. The charging speed is represented by the "C-number." A C-number of 1 means the battery can be charged once per hour, while a C-number of 2 means it can be charged twice. And so forth. Currently, most series cars have C-numbers between 1.5 and 2.5 - they can be charged at best twice per hour. That's around 24 minutes. This theoretical value is mostly used for comparison as charging from 0 to 100% in real-life scenarios never occurs.
It's worth noting that the C-number is meaningful only when battery size is known. A typical battery for long-range electric vehicles with a 100 kWh capacity can be charged to 80% in 30 minutes at a C-rate of 2. Industry aims for a C-rate of 4 in this case, corresponding to a charging time of 15 minutes. However, this is only achievable with vehicles featuring 800-volt battery systems. Some manufacturers like Hyundai, Kia, and Porsche already have such models, while others may follow. Therefore, it might be wise to wait if high charging power is a priority. However, technology remains exclusive to high-end models for now. Significant charging power jumps for 400-volt models are not yet anticipated.
Weight reduction is not critical in terms of energy density, which is measured in "Watt-hours per kilogram" (Wh/kg). Current values range from 150 to 170 Wh/kg for liquid-cooled batteries, with solid-state batteries approaching 300 Wh/kg. The higher the value, the lighter the batteries for a given range.
Weight reduction is not a priority in automaker development departments as existing electric motors can handle the weight. The weight has less of a negative impact on consumption in an electric vehicle compared to a gasoline engine. Weight reduction is, however, interesting in the context of aircraft or flying taxis. The industry is thus focusing on the corresponding technology. However, as a car driver, you don't need to wait for this development.
Regarding battery life, it is not advisable to wait for a purchase if all other conditions match personal requirements.
Skimping on battery lifespan is a no-go when it comes to electric vehicles (EVs). Today's automotive Lithium-Ion batteries, featuring nickel-based technology, are good for 1000 to 2000 charging cycles. With an average EV covering 350 km in real-world driving, that equates to 350,000 km on the road. For the typical driver, hitting that milestone might take upwards of three decades - often longer than the lifespan of the vehicle itself. Yet, meaningful strides in increasing charging cycles are slow, rarely making it to the top of manufacturers' priorities. However, heavy trucking industries that average around 100,000 km yearly might benefit from extended battery lifespan. The future on this front is promising as advancements are forthcoming.
As for those who find conventional EVs less than perfect, patience can yield quicker charging times, particularly in high-end models. In the coming years, charging stations may see reduced wait times, but revolutionary enhancements are not anticipated. Enhancements in range are also on the slow side, though the selection of vehicles with improved charging technology and larger battery capacity is expanding. But you don't have to pin your hopes on technology catching up in terms of weight and battery life. Instead, consider the road available to you now as a potential electric vehicle owner.
