A huge tangle of calculations looms in the European Championship qualifiers
It is not yet clear what the field of participants at next summer's European Football Championship in Germany will look like. There are still 15 tickets up for grabs in the final qualifying matches, with nine nations already confirmed. But the rules are likely to make things complicated. An overview of the current situation:
The mode: In principle, the following applies: In addition to hosts Germany, the first two teams in the ten qualifying groups qualify. Three further tickets will be awarded via the play-offs in March. The participants in these mini-tournaments are determined by the ranking of the previous Nations League season.
Group A: Spain and Scotland can no longer be displaced from the top two places and are therefore guaranteed a place at the European Championship.
Group B: France have already qualified as group winners. If the Netherlands win their next qualifying match against Ireland on Saturday, the 1988 European champions will also be guaranteed a place in the European Championship. Greece, who, like the Netherlands, currently have twelve points and have played one game more, would then be guaranteed a place in the play-offs.
Group C: The English team led by Bayern Munich star striker Harry Kane have secured a place in the play-offs for Germany. Behind them is a duel between Ukraine (13 points) and European champions Italy (10). Because the Squadra Azzurra have played one game less than the Ukrainians, the final decision can only be made in the direct duel on the last matchday in Leverkusen (November 20). Should Italy defeat North Macedonia three days earlier, a draw will be enough in the "final".
Group D: While Turkey (16 points) can safely plan for the European Championship, Wales and Croatia (ten points each) are in contention for the second direct qualifying place. As the Welsh have won the direct comparison, they would qualify with two wins against Armenia and the Turks. World Cup semi-finalists Croatia have to play Latvia and the Armenians. The latter are on seven points and only have a theoretical chance of qualifying for the European Championship.
Group E: Albania (13 points) can secure qualification with a draw in Moldova on Friday. A win for the Poles against rivals the Czech Republic would also be enough. The Czechs (eleven points) will qualify if they beat Poland and Moldova do not beat Albania. Robert Lewandowski's Poland (ten points) are dependent on help from their opponents, as the play-offs are looming.
Group F: Belgium (17 points) and Austria (16) have already reached the final round.
Group G: Hungary (14 points) are the top contenders for a place in the European Championship and only need one more point. Serbia (13) are also unlikely to be caught out by the third-placed Montenegrins (8), who have played one game less.
Group H: Slovenia and Denmark (19 points each) have the best chances of reaching the European Championship, but are not yet through. The top teams will now face each other, with the winner qualifying. However, Kazakhstan (15) are lurking in the wings and could challenge the Slovenians in the final game on the last matchday.
Group I: Israel (11 points) suffered a major setback in Sunday's 1-0 defeat in Kosovo, while Romania (16) and Switzerland (15) now have a good chance of a European Championship ticket. All three top teams still face each other in direct duels.
Group J: Cristiano Ronaldo and the Portuguese have stormed to the EURO with eight wins from eight games. Behind them, Slovakia (16) can secure their ticket with a draw against Iceland. Luxembourg (eleven) and the Icelanders (ten) need wins to keep dreaming of one of the top two places. However, at least the play-offs beckon for them.
The play-offs: The three remaining European Championship tickets will be awarded in three mini-tournaments. In three paths of four teams each, the winners of the Nations League groups in Leagues A, B and C will each play one participant in the semi-finals and final. If a group winner - such as Spain - has already qualified for the European Championship, the team with the next-highest ranking in the Nations League will advance.
As things stand at present, Croatia, Italy, Poland and Estonia would play off for a European Championship ticket in Path A. The Estonians would move up as the best team in League D because all other teams in League A would qualify directly or be in the play-offs. In Path B, Finland and Bosnia-Herzegovina are certain to make the play-offs. Israel is also seeded for the play-offs as a minimum, but could also make it directly. Fourth place would currently go to Iceland. Erling Haaland's Norwegians, who can no longer qualify directly, only have a small play-off chance. In Path C, Georgia are certain to play in the play-offs - Greece, Kazakhstan and Luxembourg are also in the mix as things stand. However, the latter trio still have a chance of qualifying directly.
England's soccer team, current leaders of Group C, have secured a spot in the European Championship play-offs. The winners of these play-offs at the European Championships.
Depending on the results, Italy and Greece could face off in a play-off match for a spot at the European Football Championships.
Source: www.ntv.de
