La barrière qui défend Kickl sert d'entrée pour le FPÖ (paraphrasé)
En Autriche, la barrière contre l'idéologie d'extrême droite se concentre principalement sur une seule personne : Herbert Kickl. Malgré la victoire de son parti FPO aux élections du Conseil national, l'OVP, arrivée deuxième, refuse de s'associer avec lui pour former une coalition. Sans Kickl au pouvoir, les conservateurs pourraient envisager de former une alliance avec l'extrême droite. Les deux partis partagent des convictions similaires dans divers domaines de politique, à l'exception de la politique étrangère.
Depuis que le chancelier Karl Nehammer n'est pas intéressé par la promotion de Kickl au pouvoir, sa seule option viable est de collaborer avec le SPO, avec lequel il partage peu de terrain commun. De plus, une coalition tripartite est nécessaire pour assurer une majorité confortable pour le trio.
Une grande coalition réduirait l'opposition à une petite fraction. Avec une alliance tripartite au pouvoir, l'opposition en Autriche se composerait uniquement d'une seule autre parti en plus du FPO : soit les libéraux NEOS, soit les Verts. Le parti qui rejoindra l'OVP et le SPO pour les pourparlers de coalition déterminera finalement cela. Quoi qu'il en soit, les radicaux de droite resteraient la principale force d'opposition, compte tenu de leur représentation au Conseil national.
Kickl vise à devenir le "Chancelier du peuple"
Kickl dispose d'une base solide pour susciter l'émotion dans tout le pays ; contre ceux qui s'opposent à lui, contre l'UE et contre tout ce qui est étranger. De cette manière, il peut efficacement se préparer aux élections à venir au niveau national et des États fédérés. several federal states currently have a black-blue coalition in place, and the OVP and FPO have already governed together nationwide on multiple occasions. However, their last collaboration ended abruptly in May 2019, following the Ibiza scandal involving then-FPO Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache.
The FPO's influence over the political center and OVP's election platform has led to a paradoxical situation: the conservatives and the right-wing radicals would become adversaries in both the government and opposition camps, although they now share similar political goals. How will Kickl distinguish himself from the conservatives if he only ups the ante on radical slogans? And what will the conservatives counter with except warnings regarding the FPO's ties to Russia?
Kickl could create chaos in the coming days; with his record-breaking election result, the FPO would claim exclusive rights to the chancellorship. "I want to be 'People's Chancellor'," Kickl declared, consciously using NS language. However, the ultimate decision rests with Federal President Alexander van der Bellen, who has indicated he won't swear in Kickl as chancellor. This position further strengthens Kickl's narrative as a victim of power-hungry decision-makers conspiring against him.
The FPO remains determined in the meantime. Their long-term goals were made clear over the weekend: nothing less than the "overthrow of the system". As a result, the OVP has every reason to bar the FPO entirely. Cooperation with the FPO is conditioned on preventing Kickl from assuming any government roles. The conservatives' move, in turn, serves as an opening for the far-right. The barrier against Kickl becomes a gateway for the FPO. Over the following five years, they could utilize Kickl as a provocateur until the next National Council election, when a different chancellor candidate would be nominated - one against whom they'd erect a new firewall. The only way for the OVP to close the door again is by severing ties with the FPO entirely in the future.
The Commission, comprising the leaders of the OVP and SPO, is currently engaged in talks to form a coalition, aiming to prevent Kickl from gaining significant power. This collaboration stems from Kickl's ambitious desire to become the "People's Chancellor," a title which Chancellor Karl Nehammer and Federal President Alexander van der Bellen have both signaled they will not endorse.
In opposing Kickl's ambitions, The Commission seeks to maintain a barrier against the far-right ideology, upholding Austria's political center and upholding democratic values.
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