Will the general election in Berlin be repeated? Who has to tremble the most now

Judgment in Karlsruhe - Will the general election in Berlin be repeated? Who has to tremble the most now

Only a month ago, a ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court plunged the government into a deep crisis: inadmissible budget tricks - certified by the highest court - led to a shortfall of billions in this and subsequent years. An emergency compromise including numerous cost-cutting measures has just been knitted with a hot needle, and Berlin's politicians are already looking anxiously to Karlsruhe again.

On Tuesday, the judges there will decide on another complaint from the opposition: the question is to what extent the 2021 Bundestag election in Berlin must be held again - the reason being numerous glitches on election day. Everyone agrees that there were problems. More than 1,700 objections were raised against the election, including by the then Federal Returning Officer himself.

The Bundestag, with its government majority of SPD, Greens and FDP, therefore decided that the Bundestag election should be repeated in 431 of the 2257 Berlin constituencies, i.e. around one fifth. But is that enough? No, think the CDU and CSU. The CDU/CSU faction assumes that the election should be repeated in even more districts and has therefore taken the matter to court, as it did with the budget. If they are proved right, it would be the second defeat in Karlsruhe for the traffic lights in a very short space of time. How bad could it get? Answers to the most important questions.

Will the election have to be repeated?

It is at least a theoretical possibility: the judges in Karlsruhe could deviate from the Bundestag 's decision and rule that the election does not have to be repeated at all. However, experts believe this is unlikely.

It is much more likely to be a question of the extent to which the election has to be repeated: is the scope determined by the traffic light factions sufficient or does a new vote have to be held in even more districts? Is it enough to have the second votes (which are used to vote for a party) re-voted or does the Bundestag election in Berlin have to be completely repeated? The CDU/CSU parliamentary group wants the second votes for the party lists in the half of the Berlin constituencies in which the then Federal Returning Officer challenged the election to be cast again. The first votes for direct candidates should be cast again in two constituencies.

For whom will it be particularly critical?

If Karlsruhe declares all the results of the Bundestag election in Berlin invalid, around 2.4 million Berliners would be called to vote again. However, because Berlin only accounted for around four percent of eligible voters in the whole of Germany in 2021, even in this case there would hardly be any impact on the majority in the Bundestag.

However, Berlin MPs who only narrowly won their constituency two years ago could suffer a defeat in a re-run and would have to leave the Bundestag as a result. Others who failed in 2021 could now enter parliament after all.

There could be particularly harsh consequences for the former Left Party, which remained below the five percent threshold in 2021 and was only able to enter parliament because it won three direct mandates, two of them in Berlin. If either Gregor Gysi or Gesine Lötzsch lose their direct mandate in the repeat election, all 39 MPs would lose their seats - including the ten defectors around Sahra Wagenknecht.

Experts disagree on how likely this scenario is. In the opinion of constitutional law expert Ulrich Battis, professor emeritus at Berlin's Humboldt University, it is quite possible: "I reckon that there will be a repeat of the Bundestag election in the whole of Berlin," he told the Tagesspiegel newspaper. Constitutional law expert Sophie Schönberger from the University of Düsseldorf, however, disagrees: "In the Berlin election, there were obviously errors in the ballot papers that do not apply to the Bundestag election. This could speak against a complete repeat of the Bundestag election in Berlin," she also told the "Tagesspiegel".

What she means: In 2021, Berliners will not only elect a new Bundestag, but also a new House of Representatives. The elections to the House of Representatives were already completely repeated on February 12, 2023. With far-reaching consequences: The CDU replaced the SPD as the strongest force in the state and has led the state government ever since.

What is the most likely scenario?

The most likely scenario is that, in the end, only some Berliners will be asked to go to the polls again. How many constituencies will be affected is the crucial question. It is conceivable that the Federal Constitutional Court will reject the Union's request - in which case there would be a repeat of what the Bundestag has already decided.

However, it is also possible that the court will reduce or increase the number of districts in which the election must be repeated. At the oral hearing in July, the court did not reveal which way it was leaning, Berlin state election director Stephan Bröchler told "rbb". "The judges of the Second Senate asked questions in all directions." So it will only be possible to say for sure once the verdict is known: it is due to be announced at 10 a.m. on Tuesday.

What will happen then?

That will also determine what happens next. "Only when we know whether we are facing a partial or complete repeat election can a series of elementary decisions be set in motion," explained state election director Bröchler a few days ago. For example, the number of polling stations and polling assistants as well as the number of ballot papers required would then have to be determined. According to Bröchler, there are 60 days left for implementation following the ruling from Karlsruhe. This means that February 11, 2024 is the last possible election day.

Read also:

The SPD, being part of the government majority in the Bundestag, will closely watch the Federal Constitutional Court's decision in Karlsruhe, as the court's ruling could potentially impact the Bundestag election results in Berlin.
The FDP, as a member of the government majority in the Bundestag, shares the same concern as the SPD and other parties, anticipating the court's ruling on the 2021 Bundestag election in Berlin, which was marred by several issues.
The CDU and CSU, along with other opposition parties, have expressed their belief that the 2021 Bundestag election in Berlin should be repeated in a more extensive area, emphasizing the need for a fresh vote in more constituencies.
Humboldt University's constitutional law expert Ulrich Battis suggested that there is a possibility of a complete re-election for the Bundestag in Berlin, potentially leading to significant changes in the constituency-level representations, including for the Left Party, which narrowly secured its seats in direct elections.
Should the Federal Constitutional Court rule in favor of the CDU and CSU, and declare the entire Bundestag election in Berlin invalid, the SPD, FDP, and Green parties could potentially lose their parliamentary representation in Berlin,leading to major upheavals in the German political landscape.
The crisis surrounding the 2021 Bundestag election in Berlin, which is now in the hands of the Federal Constitutional Court, will have far-reaching implications for multiple parties, including the SPD, CDU, CSU, and FDP, as well as the total political landscape of the country, especially if a complete re-election is mandated.

Source: www.stern.de