Why Germany still can't defend itself

The list of material that Germany is sending to Ukraine is long - but there is no reason for complacency. Replenishment is not working and, even in the second year of the war, there is often a lack of awareness of the new threat.

5000 helmets. Does that still ring a bell? On February 26, 2022, two days after Russia invaded Ukraine, the German support shipment arrives in the European country under attack. The then Minister of Defense, Christine Lambrecht, wants these protective helmets to be seen as a "very clear signal that Germany stands by Ukraine". One day later in the Bundestag, her boss, Olaf Scholz, called what was happening in Eastern Europe a "turning point". According to the Chancellor, this means: "The world afterwards is no longer the same as the world before."

It was a clever strategy for Scholz at the time to use a broad term to describe the fundamental decisions and massive changes that must result from the invasion of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin. Turning point - that sounds like something big, something for which German politics must change course and recalibrate its compass.

But how much progress has Germany actually made in year 2 of the turning point, which is now drawing to a close? The 5,000 helmets from back then are now matched by: 48 Leopard I and II main battle tanks, 80 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 52 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, 13 Biber armored bridgelayers, two Patriot air defence systems, two wheeled and 14 self-propelled howitzers, 5 MARS multiple rocket launchers and 162 Vector reconnaissance drones.

The list from which these weapon types and quantities are taken comprises a total of 144 items, including winter caps (240,000), refrigerators (67, for medical supplies) and heavy-duty semi-trailer trucks (85). It is a publicly accessible website that the German government likes to refer to on occasion, alongside the admission of one million war refugees and humanitarian aid.

And yes, this really long list of weapons and equipment proves that the German government no longer believes that it can stand by Ukraine with 5,000 helmets. But the impulse, after scrolling down to the end of the screen, to pat yourself on the back for this help, which you like to think of as hands on - "What about cold weather pants?" - "We need them" - "All right, we'll send 80,000" - this impulse is deceptive. After all, Germany's efforts to support the fighting Ukrainians should not be measured against the Germans' domestic perspective.

Reversing the thrust deserves respect, but ...

Germany's thinking dates back to peacetime. The German government has forbidden itself in principle to approve arms exports to crisis regions. Of course, the arms industry has made good money in the past from business with Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and South Korea. But the crises and wars in which these countries are involved have a different feel to them and have allowed the decision-makers in Berlin to assume that the exported war equipment will not be used directly on the front line.

In order to stand by Ukraine's side, the German government not only had to throw its principle overboard, it had to turn it on its head: Precisely because Ukraine is at war, Germany is supporting it with weapons and other equipment. This 180-degree turnaround, this reversal of course, deserves respect. And it has gained strength in 2023: While around 1.63 billion euros were spent on military aid to Ukraine in the first year of the turnaround, says the German government, the item increased to more than 4 billion in the second year.

Nevertheless, there is no reason for (self-)satisfaction. Because in order to be able to "appreciate" this 4 billion euro list of military aid in the truest sense of the word, you need to look at the entire budget: the sum for howitzers, tanks, first aid kits and night vision goggles is offset by total expenditure of 500 billion euros. Germany gives friends less than one percent for their struggle for existence.

Moreover, this expenditure must be measured against Putin's goals for the coming years. How he is already focusing on Moldova. How he sees his image of the West increasingly confirmed: too comfortable, too decadent to really show commitment and perseverance when it counts.

The Russian president wants to push even more boundaries in Europe. What can stop him? A failure of the attack on Ukraine. It needs enough Western weapons to put Putin back in his old place. The help of the NATO states must be measured against this challenge. It is currently nowhere near enough.

Germany cheats on the two percent target

Germany and other alliance members are still fiddling around with NATO's two percent target - as if they had not even considered their violent opponent. Deterring Russia, showing superiority, has become so necessary that the two percent of GDP for the defense budget should be taken for granted, a mark that is taken in passing. Instead, Germany is playing tricks to reach the two percent by including pension money for former soldiers, for example. How Putin is deterred by pension payments? We are still waiting for an answer from the government.

After all, two thirds of the 100 billion in special funds for the Bundeswehr have now been contractually committed, for example for PUMA infantry fighting vehicles, heavy transport and light combat helicopters, an air defense system and F-35 fighter jets. But it will be years before all this reaches the troops. It is also completely incomprehensible that the procurement of much simpler items such as artillery ammunition has not yet progressed much faster.

"The Bundeswehr is no more capable of war or victory today than it was last year," is the assessment of Susanne Wiegand, head of arms supplier Renk. The troops have even suffered and have had to give up what little they have, she says in the "Wirtschaftswoche" podcast. This assessment is widely agreed among experts. "The air force would still have enough ammunition for less than a day in a defense situation, the army for a few days," says CDU defense expert Roderich Kiesewetter. There has been no massive support for Ukraine with ammunition, nor have the country's own stocks been replenished in these two years. "For outsiders, this failure is incomprehensible, that we didn't even invest in our stocks. We don't even provide for our own needs."

When asked about this, government circles usually point to the arms industry, which is not even in a position to produce more. Kiesewetter does not accept this: "The turnaround should have resulted in concrete investments in the arms industry, financing commitments and guarantees, including the possibility of extending working hours." After all, despite all the geopolitical drama, the management of an arms company is still committed to the good of the company. And this prohibits massive advance investments in capacity expansion or production without secure orders.

Procurement law not yet adapted

"All the companies I know have already made every effort to increase capacity, hire staff and invest in the supply chain. At their own expense and sometimes with considerable risk," says Renk boss Wiegand. How can this risk be minimized? With advance payments. This is common practice in the export business. But German procurement law prohibits advance payments. As a result, the industry is struggling with structures "that were previously justified for 30 years because there was no perceived threat," says the CEO. Adapting procurement law to the new era so that the armaments industry can accelerate has not yet happened.

There is still a lack of urgently needed changes in the system - in procurement, administration and also within the ministry and the Bundeswehr. For months, Boris Pistorius used the same image in public: building a ship at full speed, changing the sails and captain, according to the Minister of Defense, was not a good idea. In other words: the wrong time for a major reform. After all, he has his hand on the smaller levers and so the time factor has had top priority in procurement since the spring.

However, the minister seems to have realized that many small levers only result in piecemeal work. Inspector General Carsten Breuer is to present proposals for a new structure for the armed forces by April 2024. Plans that have been in place for a long time: they can be found in a 23-page paper that was drawn up more than two years ago by experts from academia and the Bundeswehr, political parties and authorities. It is called "Key points for a Bundeswehr of the future". The plans are very specific for a strategy paper. So specific that one wonders why it should take four months to update this overall strategy and translate it into instructions for action.

At least the strategy is supposed to be concrete at all, unlike the National Security Strategy. Published in spring, it offers a clever analysis, but hardly anything on the consequences. Germany must become capable of defense and resilient - but what steps are needed next? A National Security Council could define attitudes and concepts. But it still doesn't exist.

Masala: Consider non-military threats too

In the view of security expert Carlo Masala, Germany still lacks an awareness of how necessary it is to be prepared for non-military threats. "How do you teach people how to deal with cyberattacks on critical infrastructure? How do you make them understand how to organize themselves if the power goes out in districts for three days?" asks the scientist from the Bundeswehr University. "This is set out in the National Security Strategy, but the funds for disaster control, for example, are being cut in the budget."

The flood disaster in the Ahr valley in 2021 demonstrated the chaos that disaster relief can cause if the Red Cross, fire department, THW and others are not coordinated in their efforts but get in each other's way. Only when an awareness of civilian dangers is created "will society be able to defend itself", says Masala ntv.de. If the turn of an era is to be understood correctly, defense must be thought of more broadly. In the sense of overall defense. "I don't see any signs of that."

In terms of the turning point, 2023 was a mixed year at best, albeit considerably better than 2022. Major projects from the special fund were initiated, the time factor was introduced into procurement, and military aid for Ukraine was noticeably increased.

However, it remains to be seen whether the major reform of the Bundeswehr will become reality. The same applies to when the Bundeswehr will receive new ammunition. Ukraine is on the defensive - also because Germany and other supporters supplied it with too few heavy weapons too late. The aid must make Kiev's troops capable of going on the offensive again. And Germany must equip itself in such a way that the Bundeswehr would be able to defend itself or a partner country in the NATO alliance. Pistorius' call to become "ready for war" points in the right direction and into the coming year.