What the FDP vote now means for the traffic light government

Member survey - What the FDP vote now means for the traffic light government

The question to the party base was simple and direct: "Should the FDP end the coalition with the SPD and Greens as part of the federal government?" You could answer "yes" or "no". The FDP had been polling its members since December 18, after a motion for this procedure reached the required 500 votes.

The result came with the new year. According to the results, a narrow majority want to remain in the traffic light coalition. 52.24% of those voting are in favor of continuing to govern with the SPD and Greens. 47.76 percent want to leave the coalition. 26,058 of the approximately 72,100 party members took part, i.e. just over a third.

This much is clear: it could have been worse for Christian Lindner and the FDP leadership. But what does this mean for the party and the government - here are the most important questions and answers.

What are the concrete consequences of the member survey?

It was clear even before the survey that the result would not be binding, whatever the outcome. Unlike a membership vote, a membership survey is only there to obtain a picture of the mood of the grassroots. This is stipulated in the FDP's constitution. The fact that only 500 members are needed to initiate such a process was sold by the party leadership in advance as a positive feature of a "participatory party".

What can be read from the result is therefore a question of interpretation. Of course, you can see it as a success that more than a third of members voted during the Christmas period and celebrate themselves as a "digital participatory party". Or you can ask yourself whether the rest refrained from voting out of disinterest, dislike or approval of the traffic light system.

Research into the causes can also follow different approaches. Why is the vote for the traffic light so close? Is it because the Liberals are not getting enough done in government? Could it have something to do with the fact that the Liberal party leadership itself so often speaks badly about "this left-wing government", whose corrective they want to be? Or are many FDP members simply in a permanently bad mood when they see Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck on television and remember that they are governing together with him?

But one thing can be said without a doubt: For all those who didn't want to believe it, the FDP has now documented once and for all how unpopular and even hated the traffic light system is in a section of the party that is so large that it cannot simply be ignored.

How has the party leadership reacted?

FDP Secretary General Bijan Djir-Sarai was satisfied. He sees the result as a "boost for the FDP leadership". The overwhelming majority of voting members wanted the FDP to continue to take responsibility.

Party Vice Chairman Wolfgang Kubicki was also pleased with the result. "The party wants the FDP to continue to participate in government with a clear majority," he told the "Süddeutsche Zeitung". The "silent majority" apparently did not want to leave the government either. "With this tailwind, we are now doing better in the coalition." Kubicki, who himself rarely spared criticism of the traffic light, now hopes: "The moaning must stop." After all, the aim is to achieve a double-digit result in the next general election in 2025.

Is peace now returning to the FDP?

The party leadership has ample opportunity in January to demonstrate unity and confidence in a very offensive manner. First, the Liberals will traditionally meet on Epiphany in Stuttgart, where Lindner and Djir-Sarai will give a speech. This will be followed by the European Party Conference in Berlin at the end of the month. The party will put forward Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann as its top candidate for the European elections. The grande dame of the FDP will probably know how to use her rhetorical talent to spark new motivation among the Liberals after weeks of self-absorption.

The grassroots rebels who instigated the survey in the first place will be able to cope with the close result. They may take it as proof of how good their instincts were. At the federal party conference at the end of April at the latest, they will be looking for a new opportunity to campaign on the big stage for an exit from the traffic light system. After all, it cannot be ruled out that the federal government will still be in a deep crisis and the FDP will fall below five percent in the polls again.

On the other hand, the member survey could not have gone better for all the critics of the traffic light system in the FDP parliamentary group, who, for example, have made a big fuss about "Habeck's heating hammer". They do not have to fear new elections and can continue to co-govern - and always refer to how unpopular the traffic light is with their own people. What was previously just a gut feeling argument for opposition in the coalition is now well documented.

What does this mean for the traffic light?

Yes, the SPD and Greens can take a deep breath. Very briefly, perhaps. With this result, they will be spared a major debate about the FDP leaving the coalition. One problem less, as the chancellor will see it. Otherwise, however, little is likely to change. "The members want a clear liberal signature in the government," FDP General Djir-Sarai has said. But that was also the slogan before the member survey.

There are many examples that prove that the FDP has pushed through its own projects in relation to its 11.5 percent in the last federal election. The liberal signature is recognizable. But obviously the further away from the FDP base, the clearer it becomes. Which ultimately leads back to the question: What part does the party leadership's own communication play in making the traffic light so unpopular in its own ranks? The calm pulse of the traffic light depends on how the FDP leadership assesses this chicken-and-egg problem - and what lessons it learns from it.

And what about Christian Lindner?

According to the classic laws of power politics, a rejection of the traffic light by the members would also have been a vote of no confidence in the party leader. Lindner has always emphasized that the FDP entered this government out of national political responsibility. His reaction to the survey was accordingly. He saw the result as a "clear mandate to continue to show a liberal profile in government action". The Federal Minister of Finance wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that he saw the outcome of the vote "as an expression of responsibility for Germany".

Who would have taken responsibility for the FDP if the result had been only slightly different - that is another debate that the Liberals are fortunately spared. For as dissatisfied as some members may be with the traffic light system, there are no signs so far that this is having a negative impact on their satisfaction with Lindner as party leader and minister.

On the one hand, this is good news for the party leadership.

On the other hand, who else would do the job?