What are the advantages of selecting a battleground?
There's a major announcement: Western countries have given the green light for Ukraine to utilize their weapons in and beyond Russian territory. But does this actually aid Ukraine in combat? The authorization doesn't apply to all weapons and areas yet. Let's address your burning questions.
What changes does this deployment bring to Charkiw?According to Colonel Markus Reisner in an interview with ntv.de, using long-range weapons systems can strike Russian command structures, logistics hubs, supply lines, artillery groups, and rocket launchers north of Charkiw. This could weaken the combat power of the advancing Russian troops. The MARS II rocket launcher and Panzerhaubitze 2000 from German deliveries are examples that could be used in Charkiw, and Ukraine has already employed these successfully during offensive operations in fall 2022.
The use of Western air defense systems near the border would also be highly effective. This especially pertains to German weapons deliveries, such as the IRIS-T SLM and Patriot. These could potentially shoot down Russian combat aircraft, which are causing significant damage with their heavy glide bombs. These glide bombs can fly over 70 kilometers due to their own propulsion, making them difficult to detect, and the devastating attack on a Charkiw shopping center last weekend used one.
However, there's a hindrance to consider. Ukraine has been utilizing Patriot for its own airspace for months. The Russians have exposed this and have cost Ukraine at least two Patriot launchers. This complicates the use of these weapons against the glide bombs. As per security expert Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations, "The Russian reconnaissance with drones is so dense around Charkiw that it is too dangerous to use Patriot systems there. If the Russians take notice of a Patriot there, an Iskander rocket will be targeted at every storage or firing position."
What impact does this deployment authorization have on the situation around Charkiw?According to Reisner, the effectiveness of this policy shift can only be determined by visible outcomes. Previously, Western weapons systems successfully hit Russian targets, but these failed to stop the Russian advance. "The attacks with Western long-range weapons are becoming less effective, as Russian countermeasures are escalating," says the colonel. "The Russians have the momentum, they determine where they attack, and the Ukrainians are forced to react. This vicious cycle must be ceased by the Ukrainian army at any cost, otherwise they'll be worn out."
Despite having this permission to use weapons on Russian land, it's uncertain whether all weapon systems will be included. It seems that the U.S. has not yet made a decision about the weapon systems to be authorized for Russian territory deployment. If the ATACMS are omitted, then a crucial option for the Ukrainians to defend against Russian glide bombs will be denied.
"If the glide bombing persists, Ukraine will face a massive problem," elucidates Gressel. He suggests that the most effective countermeasure is to target air bases from which combat jets launch glide bombs. But this would be possible only with ATACMS, as their long range gives them the ability to still inflict damage despite being deflected by a Russian jammer. If the Ukrainians can't use these missiles, Gressel believes the decision of today will have little impact. "Then the Ukrainians can outlast the northern front with this permission. Survival."
What measures can the Russians take to protect themselves from Western weapons?The Russians have gained knowledge from the last two years, with the summer of 2022 being a particularly significant learning period. At the time, the Ukrainians shocked the Russians with US-supplied HIMARS rockets. But these types of attacks are no longer possible. "The Russians have already set up defensive measures," says Reisner. "They've loosened their command and logistics structure and established additional supply routes. Additionally, they're following the discourse in the West, fueled by Russian threats." The Russians have had ample time for preparation prior to this decision.
"There won't be any successful decapitation strikes," predicts Reisner. "Modern weapon systems are only effective as long as the targeted party hasn't developed efficient countermeasures." In his opinion, if you want to achieve a definitive result, you must attack without warning and not waste time.
Can this decision significantly enhance Ukraine's situation?
Overall, this decision could have a significant impact in the long run, as Western weapons could shore up Ukraine's defenses, prevent Russian superiority, and potentially turn the tide in favor of Ukraine. However, the extent of its effect will depend on how effectively these weapons are used, whether all possible weapon systems are included in the authorization, and how aggressively Ukraine can attack Russian positions while circumventing their defenses.
To bring about a considerable change, as per Gustav Gressel's perspective, the full involvement of Western partners is yet to materialize. Nonetheless, various doubts prevail concerning which classes of weaponry are authorized by this permission. Presently, it applies only to the Charkiv region, omitting assaults deep in Russia. "Whether the French and British will approve their cruise missiles to travel deeper into the nation and strike more lucrative targets is a matter of debate." This commitment, however, is significant and entails releasing all dispatched weapon systems.
In order to make a substantial impact, the Ukrainians must be allowed to use Western weapons bearing substantial warheads against military entities participating in the fight. "This encompasses command centers, systems of electronic warfare, and air force bases. Additionally, it refers to logistics - depots, the locomotive network on the alternate side. That would be the impact required."
Reisner measures the number of accessible Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles utilizing an overheard phone conversation of German air force officials. US precision bombs face substantial obstruction from Russian jammers. "There are various interpretations of ATACMS. These rockets have already been deployed, but without a distinct 'ATACMS effect'." Militarily, huge onslaughts with diverse weapon systems should be executed consecutively, recommends Reisner. This would trigger the necessary jamming of Russian countermeasures. "Numerous and top-notch weapons are imperative. If they are not accessible, they must be supplied. This also extends to TAURUS."
