Ukraine war - USA transfers "last" installment for now: What's next for military aid?
Nothing new in the east. And things are unlikely to get much better in 2024: shortly before the end of the year, the USA released the equivalent of 226 million euros in military aid for Ukraine. This is not only the last aid package for 2023, but the last ever for the time being. It is becoming increasingly uncertain whether the largest supporter of the attacked country will be able to continue to help. A long-term loss of funding from the USA would not only have serious consequences for Kiev.
Every day of war costs 120 million euros
Ukraine has received around 220 billion euros in international financial aid since the start of the war. The largest share, 85 billion, comes from EU funds, followed by the USA (71 billion) and Germany with 21 billion euros. A lot of money, but not all of it flows into the military and equipment. Each day of war costs around 120 million euros. In addition, Kiev also needs support for the pensions and salaries of state employees due to its ailing economy.
The country will remain dependent on the flow of money from abroad in the coming years - especially as the war is unlikely to end any time soon. However, the question is how many funds will be available to the government in Kiev. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has now said that he is "less worried about 2024 than 2025". The US presidential elections in particular are causing him headaches, as Ukraine aid could fall victim to his "America first" policy if challenger Donald Trump wins.
US dollars for Americans
Some US Republicans are already resisting the lavish support for Ukraine from incumbent President Joe Biden. Instead of spending money on faraway wars, it would be better spent on domestic American issues, argues the far-right wing of the conservatives. As they have the majority in the House of Representatives, they are demanding a tightening of asylum law in return for their approval - something that the Democrat Biden rejects. In October, he asked Congress to approve the equivalent of 60 billion euros for Ukraine.
So far, however, the hesitant MPs have not even been swayed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who made a special personal appearance in Washington. Many are now hoping that Congress will make a new attempt when it returns from its winter break on January 8.
Resistance to aid for Ukraine is also growing in the European Union: A 50 billion euro financial package was actually supposed to have already been agreed, but has been put on hold until further notice due to a veto by Hungary. Negotiations must therefore now be continued in January. Nevertheless, Norway and Japan, which are also among Ukraine's biggest supporters, are determined to continue providing aid.
Standstill does not have to be permanent
Even if Kiev's Finance Minister Marchenko is not overly concerned about the coming year, the country's need has long since been alleviated. After all, the country's military is hardly making any progress on the front, and the progress is essentially the same as it was a year ago - no more was possible with Western aid. However, some experts point out that the stalemate does not necessarily have to be permanent.
"Many people forget that the majority of the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles still exist and that a lot of the promised weapons are still being delivered," German security expert Nico Lange recently told Die Welt. For example, only 30 of the 200 German Leopard 1 tanks have arrived in Ukraine. In addition, more than 95 percent of all weapons systems delivered from the West have not yet been deployed, according to the Dutch military website Oryx.
If Russia is successful, it will be expensive
The outcome of the war in Ukraine has long since become a possible blueprint for other (future) conflicts around the world. The International Institute for Strategic Studies writes about the increasing tensions: "Conflict containment also requires deterrence. This includes preventing any semblance of a Russian victory in Ukraine. The whole world will pay a high price if Russia's aggression succeeds in 2024 or even later."
Statista,"Welt", DPA, AFP, Reuters, Japanese government, Norwegian government, Oryx
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- The USA recently transferred an equivalent of 226 million euros, marking the last military aid package for Ukraine in 2023 and potentially the last for the time being.
- Joe Biden's USA has been one of the largest supporters of Ukraine, providing 71 billion euros in aid since the start of the conflict.
- The military aid is crucial for Ukraine, as each day of war costs around 120 million euros and the country's economy requires support for state employee salaries and pensions.
- However, the US presidential elections in 2024 could impact Ukraine aid, with challenger Donald Trump's "America first" policy potentially affecting funding.
- Germany is another significant contributor, donating 21 billion euros since the beginning of the war, while Norway and Japan are also among Ukraine's biggest supporters.
- Some US Republicans resist the military aid to Ukraine, arguing that the funds could be better spent domestically, and negotiations for a 50 billion euro EU financial package are currently on hold due to a Hungarian veto.
Source: www.stern.de
