Unprecedented US election year: what could be dangerous for Biden and Trump

Race for the presidency - Unprecedented US election year: what could be dangerous for Biden and Trump

The United States is facing an unprecedented election year. Everything points to a rematch of the election campaign between incumbent President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump, who wanted to undo his defeat three years ago by force and brought the country to the brink of a constitutional crisis with the unprecedented storming of the US Capitol by his supporters. The stakes are correspondingly high.

Trump could again try to question the integrity of the election, incite his base and create chaos around the vote. Above all, however, he faces four criminal trials in the election year, including for his campaign against the outcome of the 2020 election. Never before has an ex-president and presidential candidate had to sit in the dock in the USA. And regardless of whether Trump is convicted or acquitted, both will put the country's constitutional system to the test in an unprecedented way.

Trump and Biden both face particular challenges in the coming months. They share one. An overview:

The challenges for Joe Biden

The world situation

Biden has to deal with several international crises. Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza could become a major conflict in the region: Attacks by Iran-backed groups against US forces in the Middle East have increased. The Democrat is likely to do all he can to prevent America from being dragged into a war. In view of the high number of civilian casualties among Palestinians, Biden's rigorous support for Israel has also been widely criticized by parts of the US population. This could alienate voters in the long term. Russia's war against Ukraine is also dividing the US: support for the immense US aid to date is dwindling. Biden is therefore finding it difficult to continue his course of unrestricted support for Kiev, especially as there is no end in sight.

The economy

With the end of the coronavirus crisis and the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, prices rose in the US. In the summer of 2022, inflation in the world's largest economy reached a 40-year high of more than nine percent. The rate of inflation has fallen significantly since then. But this means that the high prices are now continuing to rise moderately. Biden is only responsible for the high consumer prices to a very limited extent and things are also looking good on the labor market. However, when people in the US can afford less and less for their money, they generally blame the current president. Added to this is the Fed's fight against inflation with the drastic increase in the key interest rate. Interest rates on loans have gone through the roof as a result.

The age

Biden moved into the White House as the oldest president ever. He is now 81 years old; he would be 82 at the start of his second term of office and 86 at the end of his presidency. The most powerful man in the world regularly gets his words mixed up during appearances, searches for words, mixes up numbers, sometimes places, sometimes people. His frequent gaffes provide the Republicans with constant fodder for publicly questioning his mental suitability for the highest office in the United States. But even within his own party, enthusiasm for his re-election campaign has been curbed for this reason.

The son

Hunter Biden has been making headlines for a long time: with years of alcohol addiction, drug addiction and shady business deals. In the meantime, the 53-year-old has been charged with two counts of violating gun laws and tax offenses. Very delicate details have come to light in the course of the investigations. The public prosecutor's office lists expenses for drugs, strippers and luxury hotels. Criminal charges against the son of a sitting US president are highly unusual, if not unprecedented. During the election campaign, it provides the Republicans with plenty of material for political attacks. The son's opaque business dealings have also landed Joe Biden under investigation in the House of Representatives for possible impeachment proceedings. Although this has no prospect of success, it also provides plenty of scope for attack.

The challenges for Donald Trump

The lawsuits

In the middle of the election campaign, Trump is facing four charges in criminal proceedings - two of them in connection with his attempts to retroactively reverse the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. The charges and even a possible prison sentence do not prevent Trump from running for the highest office in the land - and it remains to be seen when the verdicts will be handed down. However, a number of trials will begin in the election year. They are likely to not only tie up the Republican's time, but also stir up a lot of unwelcome dust. In addition, there are civil lawsuits that could cost Trump a lot of money and also his reputation.

Old age

Old age is actually a perennial issue for Biden. But Trump is no longer the youngest either. If the 77-year-old were to be re-elected, at 78 years and seven months he would be the oldest president ever to have moved into the White House. And even the Republican sometimes seems a little confused: he recently made Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban the Turkish head of state. The Republican often turns Biden into former US President Barack Obama. However, Trump is never at a loss for an excuse - and simply claims that he is deliberately confusing the two Democrats.

The Supreme Court

Trump opponents in various US states are trying to remove Trump's name from the ballot papers for the presidential election. They are arguing on the basis of a constitutional amendment that excludes people from elections who have instigated an "insurrection". They have failed in a number of courts. However, shortly before Christmas, the Supreme Court of the state of Colorado ruled that Trump was ineligible for the presidency due to his role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The final word has not yet been spoken. The case is likely to end up in the US Supreme Court. Should the Supreme Court accept it, the further course of the election will be in the hands of the court.

The rivals

It is currently considered a foregone conclusion that Trump will win his party's nomination. He seems to have an unassailable lead in the polls. His only serious opponent so far, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has recently lost a lot of popularity. On the other hand, Trump's former US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, is gaining approval in the polls. Yes, the gap to Trump of around 50 percentage points is huge. But anything is possible in an election campaign. And the final candidate will not be chosen until the summer.