Ukraine is running out of soldiers - a controversial mobilization is to help

Hundreds of thousands are missing - Ukraine is running out of soldiers - a controversial mobilization is to help

The mobilization of new soldiers for the fight against the Russian invasion poses a major problem for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. "The question of mobilization is a very sensitive one," said Selenskyj on Tuesday in Kiev.

For months now, the commanders of his armed forces, which are equipped with Western weapons, have been calling for more personnel to be deployed on the front line. There is talk of a need for 450,000 to 500,000 additional soldiers. But in addition to the costs, which according to Selenskyj amount to around 500 billion hryvnia (12.2 billion euros) and still have to be raised, there is also a motivation problem.

Conscripts flee Ukraine - or buy their way out with bribes

Thousands of men are trying to evade military service by fleeing abroad. Checks at the borders are strict, officials search cars and tear open disguises on trains. Men are also repeatedly apprehended at the green border. There are also many known cases of conscripts buying their way out of service with bribes at sample points.

Selenskyj not only has to worry about the third year of the war in view of the crumbling financial support from the Western allies - despite the dwindling reserves there, he urgently asks for weapons and ammunition. Above all, his own military leadership expects him to find a solution to the personnel problem. There are many dead and injured every day, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are in captivity.

Russia lures volunteers with high pay

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, who has been waging a war of aggression against Ukraine since 24 February 2022, has long been counting on his neighbor running out of fighters at some point. The Russian president has not only increased the number of soldiers, but is also luring thousands of volunteers to the front, especially with comparatively high pay. And Putin claims that the initiative in the war lies once again with the Russian soldiers, while the Ukrainians are on the defensive.

It is true that the Russian troops suffered several defeats, particularly in the first year of the war. However, they still occupy almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory. Of the more than 800,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the armed forces, around 300,000 are said to be deployed directly on the almost 1,000-kilometer-long front.

Men are to be conscripted - even against their will

The desperate search for new soldiers is visible in markets, shopping centers, restaurants, fitness studios and spas. Military personnel, some of them heavily armed, often approach and try to take men to the draft. Selensky said this year at the EU in Brussels: "We can't chase someone into war with clubs like Russia." But even then, videos were making the rounds showing men unwilling to go to war being beaten up and forcibly taken to the district conscription offices.

Following reports of miserable enlistment figures, systematic exemption from military service and corrupt heads of the enlistment offices, Selensky dismissed all regional heads of the district conscription offices in August. But the mobilization figures plummeted even further.

Military intelligence chief: They are running away

According to the media, the enlistment plans are now only being fulfilled by single-digit percentages, especially in the major cities. Although men between the ages of 18 and 60 who are fit for military service are not allowed to leave the country, the number of escapes is still rising. How many manage to flee can only be estimated. However, according to Eurostat, over 700,000 Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 64 were registered as refugees in the EU states alone in October.

The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has an explanation. According to him, the majority of people like to shout: "I am Ukrainian - Ukraine above all else." But in essence, they do not feel like citizens of Ukraine and therefore do not see a "sacred duty" to defend it. "Everyone is rooting for Ukraine, but they are running away," said the intelligence officer at a recent discussion event. The gaps at the front can no longer be closed with volunteers. Therefore, the country cannot avoid forced mobilization.

Unpopular solutions

In view of the difficult situation, the government has been forced to take unpopular steps. In order to gain easier access to more than 400,000 young men, the reservist age is to be lowered from 27 to 25. In addition, the criteria for fitness for service have been softened - men with only one arm or an amputated lower leg are now considered conditionally fit for service. The conscription of women is also up for discussion. However, Selenskyj has so far rejected a change in the law. More than five percent or around 43,000 members of the armed forces are women, more than 5,000 of them directly on the front line.

A quick solution is not in sight. Former Foreign Minister Vadym Prystayko recently floated the idea of deploying Western soldiers - for example from Great Britain. In the event of a "catastrophic development of the war", this would be one way forward. So far, there have only been foreign volunteers in the so-called International Legion, but it hardly plays a role any more.

The deployment of foreign soldiers has so far been considered taboo by Western allies. However, Ukraine is always proud that the West has thrown other taboos overboard with its tank, missile and announced aircraft deliveries. Hopes for help are high.