Legal Fairness Achieved in a Legal Setting - Trump's Criticism and Its Impact on the U.S. Election
A criminal felon vying for the presidency? Incredible, but true. In the United States of 2024, anything is possible, even this. The Republican front-runner, Donald Trump, has smashed through numerous barriers into the unimaginable realm. Currently, he's facing a unique distinction: the 77-year-old was found guilty of a legal offense - for concealing a payoff to a porn actress.
And what about it? The historic verdict of a former president and current candidate is just as surprising as the possibility that Trump might emerge unscathed. He's gearing up for another presidential run in November, undisturbed by this legal setback.
The Election
This conviction won't deter Trump from running for the presidency as planned in November. All the US Constitution requires is that candidates be US-born, at least 35, and have been living in the country for at least 14 years. There are no other criteria. Even if Trump were to be in prison, he could still nominate himself for the presidency. The precedent? The socialist candidate Eugene Debs ran in 1920 from jail, though he ultimately failed.
It's improbable that Trump will end up in prison, despite the guilty ruling. The sentencing hearing is scheduled for July 11 - four days before the start of the Republican National Convention, where Trump will officially be crowned as the presidential candidate.
The judge could suspend the sentence, place him on house arrest, simply levy a fine, or order community service. The fact that Trump has never been convicted before may work in his favor.
Moreover, he's expected to file an appeal against the verdict, which could drag on for months. It's extraordinarily unlikely that a definitive, binding verdict will be in place by the election date of November 5. It could even lead to a bizarre situation where the candidate for the highest office in the nation must adhere to probation terms in the heart of the election campaign, has restricted mobility, or is performing community service. Unless otherwise stated, the verdict wouldn't technically hinder his candidacy.
The Voters
The verdict could undermine Trump's standing with voters, but that's uncertain. Trump has been leading Biden by one to two percentage points in national polls for weeks. This development didn't modify that reality, despite the New York case revealing raunchy details about Trump's sex life and questionable business practices.
Certain Trump supporters might retract their votes if he were convicted, but many wouldn't vote for Biden. Instead, they'd abstain from voting altogether. Whether this could create a tipping point remains unclear. Trump's fervent devotees remain unwaveringly loyal. And across the nation, many Americans appear unconcerned about Trump's blunders.
There are far more severe things known about Trump than the forgery of business documents to conceal a payoff to a porn star - without any political repercussions for him. The chilling climax: In public view, Trump attempted to overturn his defeat in the 2020 presidential election and encouraged his followers to attack the core of the US democracy.
As a result of attempts at electoral manipulation and other grave accusations, three more criminal cases are pending against him. Just a couple of months ago, Trump was ordered to pay millions after being found guilty of sexually abusing a woman in the 90s and later slandering her.
None of this imperiled his political career. On the contrary: Trump's brand has been forged on turning legal accusations into personal victories, martyring himself, rallying his supporters, and fundraising for his legal defense.
His narrative that the political elite is trying to silence him using law is appealing to many Americans. In the Trump cosmos, a guilty verdict strengthens him even more and breeds a "my way or the highway" mindset among his supporters, as the initial responses from Trump supporters after the verdict indicate.
The Party
Trump has stronger control over his party - despite the scandals. After the Capitol storming on January 6, 2021, it seemed for a moment as if Trump's political career was finished. Even his loyal followers initially distanced themselves from him. But, in fear of the party base, which unquestionably follows Trump blindly, they all returned to his side. Trump's performance in the Republican presidential primaries proved he's still the frontrunner for the Republicans.
The whole party establishment supports Trump's presidential bid publicly and condemns the legal proceedings against him as politically motivated. It's unforeseeable that anyone in the party organization could now turn on him. To the contrary: Trump lined up a string of party colleagues to show solidarity with him - particularly those with ambitions for his potential second government.
The Other Cases
The verdict has no significant impact on the other cases. The former president is still facing charges in two cases in Washington, DC and in the state of Georgia, of attempting to overturn the 2020 election result. In another case in Miami, he's under suspicion of improperly storing highly sensitive government documents.
Instead of New York's cases, these three instances include way more severe allegations. For instance, conspiracy against the United States is just one of many charges involved. But through deliberate delays and legal strategies, Trump has successfully derailed all these judicial proceedings, bringing the Washington election fraud case to the verge of crumbling.
The critical Washington case is at great risk of falling apart. Initially, the highest court in the US must decide if Trump can't avoid being prosecuted in this situation. This ruling could also potentially impact the two cases in Georgia and Florida. As of now, there's a high probability that none of these legal actions will start before election day.
