Trump still has work to do.
The first time in the US, a former president has been found guilty in a court case, and it's possible that a convicted individual could occupy the White House. This potential scenario has become more plausible with this verdict.
This verdict is significant - not just for today but also in retrospective terms. Its ramifications aren't clearly apparent yet. For the first time, a criminal trial was conducted against a former US president, and the jurors have declared that Donald Trump is guilty. They didn't just find him guilty once but 34 times.
It's unnecessary to debate whether it was correct or incorrect to prosecute Trump. Courts in the United States don't operate on the basis of tactical or strategic considerations but rather abide by the law. Trump has the option to appeal the verdict. The sentencing announcement won't occur until July 11. The application of the verdict and the timing of its enforcement could depend on the November presidential elections. It's considered unlikely that Trump will be sent to prison. Even if he's convicted, he'd still reside in the White House if a higher court doesn't reverse the verdict.
Regardless, one thing remains definite: Trump's conviction will exacerbate the radicalization of his supporters. This embodies the fabled "division" of the United States: the extreme radicalization of the Republicans and their electorate. What were once political rivals are now sworn adversaries, with Trump and his die-hard supporters viewing them as mortal foes. The Republican Party now has a leader who detests democracy. He's honed his antipathy for democracy since 2020, the year he lost the election. Although, a second Trump presidency wouldn't run as seamlessly as the first.
Clearly, what won't transpire: Convicted followers will never desert Trump. This isn't just because Trump is Trump and could murder someone on Fifth Avenue without reducing his supporters, as he boasted in his unbridled self-love, many moons ago. It's also because his supporters - more powerful than ever before - consider themselves a sworn league against "those up there." This defensive mentality, coupled with dissimilar media consumption, means that such scandals might turn away some, but they won't penetrate the core group.
Trump poses a threat to American democracy and consequently the West as a whole. He's voiced that there would be "bloodshed" if he doesn't win re-election. He meant the supposed ruin of the United States, but his choice of words is apt to incite violence.
The verdict will not deter Trump, but it'll make his defeat more attainable - albeit marginally. Only a small percentage of Republican voters who were considering voting for him might reconsider now. Nonetheless, this negligible difference matters. The verdict makes it simpler to thwart Trump.
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In the midst of the controversy, Donald Trump remains a formidable figure in the US presidential election 2024, leveraging his right-wing populist rhetoric and supporters' loyalty. This trial and conviction might not affect his political processes significantly in New York, as his followers remain steadfast and his anti-democratic views continue to resonate with a portion of the Republican electorate.
