The US presidential election result is determined here.
Some experts predict that the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election will depend on just six states out of the 50 - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states are known as "battleground states" because they could either help incumbent Joe Biden secure another term in office or propel Republican candidate Donald Trump back into the Oval Office.
With current polls showing a clear advantage for Trump, the Democrats and Biden's team are worried. They point out the legislative achievements under the Democratic administration but acknowledge that they haven't been well-received by the voters. The polls don't look promising for the presidential election in November.
In the indirect voting system for the US presidential election, the electoral college decides who becomes president. The orders are as follows: the states send their electors to Washington, and they then vote for the winner of their home state, irrespective of the margin of victory.
Trump would likely have a narrow lead if the US elected its president directly and nationally. In the electoral college system, however, a victory for the candidate who receives fewer popular votes is also possible. In 2016, Hillary Clinton would have become president had she had a slightly lower lead, but she lost to Trump due to the electoral college. Biden had a 4.5% lead in 2020 based on popular votes, but this was not enough.
Biden's best bet lies in the Midwest. These six battleground states house around 50 million people out of a total of 333 million in the US. He won all six states in 2016, though some were incredibly close. In Georgia, he won by a razor-thin margin of 0.23% (around 12,000 votes), in Arizona, it was 0.3% (approximately 10,000 votes), and in Nevada, it was 2.39% (30,000 votes). These southern states are part of the so-called Sun Belt.
If Biden retains these southern states in November as the polls predict, his only other chance is to safeguard the "Blue Wall." The "Blue Wall," named after the Democratic party color, was once perceived as impregnable for the Republicans. Trump managed to break through it, but Biden restored it: Michigan and Wisconsin in the Midwest, as well as Pennsylvania, were won by the Democrats, not Trump.
Voters in the south are discontent with Biden due to issues like illegal immigration across the southern border from Mexico and inflation. Meanwhile, some Americans are upset with the abortion chaos in the United States, where each state now has its own laws, which appears to benefit the Republicans. On the other hand, younger voters are increasingly displeased or angry with Biden. Blacks and Latinos are less inclined to vote Democratic this time around compared to four years ago.
Despite Biden's low popularity and the desire for significant change in the country, the future remains uncertain. Around two-thirds of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, with 70% thinking radical change is required. It's uncertain if the majority of these people will vote for Biden. Trump is gaining support across the board and has a good chance of making a triumphant return to the White House.
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In the 2024 US presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump might once again be the main contenders, given their prominent roles in the 2020 and 2016 elections, respectively. In the 2020 US presidential election, if voter sentiment remains unchanged, Biden's retention of the "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, along with successful campaigns in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin, could secure his second term.
As speculation about the 2024 US presidential election mounts, experts are examining the 2020 election results and analyzing the shift in voter dynamics, pointing out that policy issues such as illegal immigration, inflation, abortion, and frustration over the political climate may significantly impact the election outcome.
Source: www.ntv.de
