The traffic lights are already facing the next warning
The traffic light coalition has again received news from Karlsruhe, from the Federal Constitutional Court. And again it is not good news: the federal election will have to be repeated in parts of Berlin. That could be embarrassing for the traffic light coalition.
"That too," might have flashed through the minds of the remaining friends of the traffic light coalition this morning. Once again, the Federal Constitutional Court has made a ruling that the federal government cannot like - even if it is not as dramatic as the ruling on the budget just over four weeks ago. The Bundestag election will have to be repeated in parts of Berlin. The time has come on February 11. 455 of 2257 constituencies, including postal voting districts, are affected, which is just under 20 percent. Although the coalition government will not lose its majority under any circumstances, there is a risk of an embarrassing setback.
Back then, on September 26, 2021, the capital embarrassed itself in front of the rest of the country by failing to conduct the ballot properly. Ballot papers were missing, printed incorrectly and some polling stations did not close until well after 6 pm. As a result, predictions about the result were already being circulated before everyone had even cast their vote - an absolute no-go in the democratic process because it could influence the election decision. The election to the Berlin House of Representatives, which took place at the same time, was therefore repeated in full last February - and ended with a clear victory for the CDU.
CDU wants to show traffic lights a "stop sign"
Due to the numerous errors, the Bundestag had already decided to partially repeat the election. However, this did not go far enough for the CDU/CSU. It turned to the Federal Constitutional Court, which has now partially ruled in favor of the opposition party. Voting must now be repeated in 31 more constituencies than previously planned. SPD leader Saskia Esken tried to look on the bright side. The ruling strengthens voters' confidence in the importance of their vote, she said. She told the German Press Agency that it must be ensured that such an election is conducted without errors and is counted correctly.
Meanwhile, the CDU is rubbing its hands in glee. "We see the repeat election as an opportunity to show the traffic light government a stop sign," said CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann in the early afternoon in the Konrad Adenauer House. In contrast to polls, there will now be reliable figures.
The Left Party can breathe a sigh of relief: the repeat election cannot jeopardize the two direct mandates it won in Berlin for the Bundestag. The party will therefore remain represented in the Bundestag.
The polls do not bode well for the traffic light party. The latest RTL and ntv trend barometer shows disastrous results: SPD 14%, Greens 13%, FDP 5%. Together, that is just one percentage point more than the CDU and CSU, which are on 31%. The AfD comes in at 23% in this survey. The budget crisis of recent weeks has cost the federal government further confidence.
However, the government majority is secure - the traffic light factions together have almost 100 seats more than the opposition and only 17 of these are held by Berlin MPs. It is still unclear how many of these could be lost. But a debacle is looming. Around half a million eligible voters are called to cast their ballots. That is more than the number of eligible voters in Bremen and therefore enough to make a political statement.
February 11 only the first difficult election
One must not make the mistake of transferring the figures from the nationwide survey to the capital city on a one-to-one basis. Traditionally, different majorities prevail there and left-wing parties are usually stronger. In the 2021 federal election, for example, the CDU only achieved 18.9% (nationwide result: 24.1). The Left Party came in at 14.3% (4.9), while the Greens landed at 20.9% (14.8).
This is all the more true if you take a closer look. Many of the constituencies now under scrutiny are in Pankow constituency 76, which is a stronghold for the Greens (2021 result: 25.5 percent) and at least a good area for the SPD (21.5 percent). The CDU/CSU only achieved 12.7% there. In constituency 80 (Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf), which was also badly affected, the CDU is significantly stronger, but the SPD and Greens also had many voters.
However, the figures from this February's election to the House of Representatives are more recent and therefore probably more meaningful. The CDU was by far the strongest party, with 28.2 percent of the vote. The SPD and Greens both came in at 18.4 percent, the Left Party at 12.2 percent, the FDP was kicked out of parliament, while the AfD only received 9.1 percent of the vote, which was also far below the national trend.
February 11 will be the first major election date in the coming year. A good start could provide a tailwind for the European elections in June and the state elections in Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony in the fall. Anything other than an embarrassment in Berlin would be a success for the traffic light parties. More is not possible at the moment.
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- The union parliamentary group is expressing concern about the upcoming repeat election in parts of Berlin, as it could be a challenging situation for the traffic light coalition, particularly given their majority in the German federal parliament might not be significantly affected but an embarrassment is still a possibility.
- Following the Federal Constitutional Court's decision to partially repeat the federal election in Berlin, the CDU/CSU is hopeful that this will present an opportunity to display a "stop sign" to the traffic light coalition, as they anticipate more reliable results and improved polling performance.
- The traffic light coalition faces a difficult election on February 11, but they recognize that the figures from the state-wide survey cannot be directly applied to the capital city due to varying majorities and traditional strength of left-wing parties in Berlin, and their ultimate goal is to avoid any embarrassment during the election process.
Source: www.ntv.de
