"The Putin era could last for years"

"I have little hope of ever seeing Moscow again," says Irina Scherbakowa, one of the founders of the Russian civil rights organization Memorial. She left her home country after the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. "I'm actually at a loss," she says in an interview with ntv.de. "I don't understand at all what the politicians in the West are doing. In other words, I know the reasons why they are so hesitant to help Ukraine. But I think such a policy is very dangerous. Anyone who is informed, who is aware of reality at all, must realize that Putin will not stop there."

ntv.de: Did you recently watch Putin's big end-of-year press conference?

Irina Scherbakowa: Not the whole event, and in reality, of course, it wasn't a press conference. It's a show, all the questions are prearranged.

Irina Scherbakowa is a Germanist and historian. During the Soviet era, she was one of the co-founders of the human rights organization Memorial.

What was the aim of this show?

It was a sign of presence. In December 2022, the event was canceled, this year Putin wanted to show successes: Successes on the front, successes in the economy, a general reassurance that there will be no mobilization. In addition, there were hundreds of selected questions about trifles, such as making eggs more expensive, which is absolutely ridiculous given the massive problems in the country. It's not just eggs that are getting more expensive, there's inflation overall. And then there was this funny sentence - as proof that the sanctions are having no effect: "Look how many Chinese cars are already on our roads."

Why was that funny?

It was meant to tell people that Russia is not dependent on the West. But the sentence also shows that the Russian economy is not in a position to build good cars. But I think the central message was a different one.

Which one?

The central message was that the war should continue until Russia has achieved "its goals". On the one hand, the polls show that many people in Russia want an end to the war, that they are tired. But they also show that these hopes are linked to Putin: He started the war, he should also bring it to an end. Putin has made it clear that this will not happen. He has not even reacted to the movement that has been going on in Russia for a few weeks: Women whose husbands were called up during the mobilization in September 2022 are writing letters to Putin and also making their voices heard on the internet. They are demanding that their husbands come home.

To assess how strong Putin's position of power is, you can use economic data, the surveys of the Levada Institute or the military situation in Ukraine - but it's still never quite clear how secure Putin is in the saddle. What is your feeling?

My feeling is that he feels much more secure than he did a year ago. The press conference back then was canceled because there were failures on the front. That has changed. The Ukrainian counter-offensive did not materialize, and Putin also survived the story with Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. All sources say that there are massive losses on the Russian side. But Putin obviously doesn't care much about that. He feels strong at the moment.

And the Russian economy?

That's a bubble. We have seen the figures in the Russian budget: 70 percent more for the army and armaments. Industry is running because it has been converted to war production. The demand for labor is high, which is why wages are rising. But food prices are also rising. Take bananas: in recent years they have become a kind of standard snack for poorer people, they have become the most frequently consumed type of fruit in Russia. They were cheap, they are handy for on the go and when you have eaten one, you feel full. But today bananas cost twice as much.

Is it conceivable that Putin will be prepared to negotiate with Ukraineafter the presidential elections in March? That he will then give up his goal of the complete conquest and subjugation of Ukraine?

That depends on how the war develops. The year is coming to a tragic end and I am very worried. In Ukraine, people are also tired - but Ukraine has three times fewer inhabitants than Russia, there are far fewer resources in relation to the population. I'm actually at a loss. I don't understand at all what the politicians in the West are doing. In other words, I know the reasons why they are so hesitant to help Ukraine. But I think such a policy is very dangerous. Anyone who informs themselves, anyone who perceives reality at all, must realize that Putin will not stop there. If he feels safe, he will go further. He has become a fanatical geopolitician. The fact that Orban, ...

... the Hungarian prime minister ...

The fact that Orban can block the European Union like this is absolutely intolerable. And then there's the blockade by the Republicans in the US Congress. There is an incredible short-sightedness behind this.

What do you mean that Putin will not stop?

Due to the war in Ukraine, Putin is currently not in a position to attack another country. But if he wins in Ukraine in his favor, that would strengthen the authoritarian forces throughout Europe, the right-wing radicals, the populists.

So you think the former Soviet republics like the Baltic states are safe?

At the moment they are, thank God. And hopefully NATO will learn the right lessons from this war. Because especially where there is a Russian population, on the borders with Russia, there is a constant danger. The Republic of Moldova is in great danger in my eyes.

You are Russian and hope for a Russian defeat. Is this an internal conflict for you?

I am Russian. But I don't belong to Putin's Russia - not at all. I don't know if I'll live to see it, but if Russia has any chance of moving back towards freedom and democracy, it will only be if Putin loses this war. That is absolutely unthinkable with Putin. He has plunged the country psychologically and morally into an abyss. I can see how fear has gripped the people, how they are silent, how they avoid talking about the war. I know this - I grew up in a situation where there was also silence, censorship and persecution. But in some ways it's much more terrible now than it was then, because we've slipped from the relative freedom of the 1990s into a dictatorship. That is terrible. Not a day goes by without people you know being accused or convicted. There is torture in Russian prisons. I have friends and colleagues in Russia who continue to work despite the pressure. But I have nothing to do with this state, I want nothing to do with it. As long as my strength allows, I will speak out against Putin's state. That's what I do, that's what Memorial has been doing for years. Since the beginning of the Putin era, in fact.

If you had to give one reason why Russia has not seized the opportunity to become a democracy, what would it be?

It's always difficult to give just one reason. But perhaps there is one big reason, behind which there are other reasons: It was absolutely unfamiliar for Russia to live in freedom. The ten years that people have had since 1989 have been very difficult. For most people, the 1990s made them think: What use is freedom to us? The state can do anything to us anyway - it's better to make a deal with it. Putin has proposed such a deal: you keep quiet in return for consumption, stability and security.

You recently celebrated the anniversary of the Nobel Prize award to Memorial in Berlin and also invited representatives of the two civil rights organizations from Ukraine and Belarus, which received the prize in 2022 together with Memorial. What is it like for you to meet Ukrainians?

They are colleagues, we meet regularly at events. Memorial has an organization in Ukraine that has been working there since 1989, since Memorial was founded. There is a joint project there in which Russian war crimes are documented, which is done by our Ukrainian colleagues. We translate their reports into eight languages. Incidentally, I also have roots in Ukraine. My grandparents from both sides were born there. My father went to war from Ukraine on June 22, 1941. He always went to Kiev on May 9 to celebrate Victory Day there with his Ukrainian friends. I was also often in Kiev, for a long time we have had a vacation home in the Poltava area where we often spent the summer. In the end, it's just a game of fate that my grandparents didn't stay in Kiev, where they had been since 1917, but moved to Moscow, and that my father didn't return to Ukraine after the war - the rest of the family had been murdered by the Germans in October 1941 because they were Jews.

And at the same time, as a Russian, you feel terrible in the face of this terrible tragedy, these terrible crimes that are being done to Ukraine in the name of Russia. Especially because we have not stopped the development that has led to this catastrophe. I think Erich Kästner once said about Kurt Tucholsky that he wanted to stop a catastrophe with his typewriter - National Socialism. We sometimes feel the same way. That's why I can understand the anger of the Ukrainians.

And the anger of Ukrainians towards everything that comes from Russia?

I can understand that. But you know, I'm a practical person and I think that everyone who opposes this regime must stick together. I therefore see all those who are against Putin as allies. Well, maybe not all of them. Some Russian emigrants are a bit too navel-gazing for my taste. If you mourn your own fate too much, it gets on my nerves in view of what is happening in Ukraine. However, emigration is no bed of roses. When you've lived in a country for 70 years, have friends there, an apartment, books, and have to leave everything behind with two suitcases in your hand - it's not nice. Until now, this was only known from the biographies of Russians and Germans who went into exile many decades ago. But our exile was a voluntary move, there is no comparison with the Ukrainians who were bombed out and had to flee from the Russian occupiers. It's not comparable at all.

Do you now sometimes read books by German or Russian authors in exile?

In the beginning, I often remembered the books I used to read. Now you're so caught up in the daily news that there's hardly any time left to immerse yourself in such books.

Books from German exile literature are currently being reissued in Russia, for example "The Story of a German" by Sebastian Haffner. Also the open letter by Thomas Mann, "Why I will not return to Germany" from 1945 or the texts on "The Question of Guilt" by Karl Jaspers from 1946. I know that many Russians are now reading books by former Russian exiles who fled to Berlin or Paris after the October Revolution. That is not uplifting reading, not at all. These exiled Russians literally sat on their suitcases for several years because they hoped that the Reds would not win the civil war. To be honest: I have little hope of ever seeing Moscow again. The Putin era could last for years. But on the other hand, there is no illusion, as there was in the 1920s and 30s, that a new world will emerge there in the Soviet Union, that a communist dream will be realized. No, what has emerged under Putin has no prospects for the future.

Hubertus Volmer spoke to Irina Scherbakowa

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Irina Scherbakowa, a Germanist and historian, and co-founder of the Russian civil rights organization Memorial during the Soviet era, expresses her concerns about the current political situation in Russia and Ukraine, particularly the actions of Vladimir Putin.

When asked if she watched Putin's end-of-year press conference, Scherbakowa mentions that it was more of a show than a press conference, with prearranged questions and a focus on Putin's successes in the economy and military, despite the inflation and mobilization.

Scherbakowa also shares her thoughts on Putin's aim for the war to continue until Russia achieves "its goals," and expresses her belief that Putin is feeling more secure than he did a year ago due to recent developments in the war.

When discussing the possibility of Putin being willing to negotiate with Ukraine after the elections, Scherbakowa suggests that it depends on how the war develops, but worryingly mentions that if Putin feels safe, he may "go further" and expand his influence in Europe.

Source: www.ntv.de