The nation made a significant shift on an emergent divisive matter that emerged two decades ago on May 17th.
During the year 2004, many Americans voiced their opposition to same-sex marriage when the first same-sex couples tied the knot following a court ruling in Massachusetts. Governor of Massachusetts at that time, a Republican named Mitt Romney, wished to implement an antiquated 1913 law that would prevent same-sex couples from acquiring marriages in Massachusetts if they came from other states. Former President George W. Bush, a Republican and incumbent at the time, took it one step further by pushing for a Constitutional amendment to "defend" marriage, which he termed as "the most fundamental pillar of civilization."
A strong backlash against same-sex marriage surfaced in the elections of November 2004, with ten states passing amendments in their constitutions that defined marriage as a relationship between a man and a woman. This movement could have helped secure Ohio for Bush in his successful bid for a second term as President, as this state was seen as pivotal. Had Ohio gone to the opposition candidate, John Kerry (a Senator from Massachusetts who disapproved of same-sex marriages taking place in his own state), then the outcome of the election could have been different.
The formation of the 2015 Supreme Court case, Obergefell v. Hodges, was instigated by the Ohio amendment. In this landmark case, five votes prevailed, granting a right to same-sex marriage in the United States.
In the 2004 presidential election as documented by CNN exit polls, merely a quarter of American voters endorsed equal marriage rights for same-sex couples. Meanwhile, 35% supported providing legal standing for same-sex partnerships akin to civil unions. Lastly, 37% rejected the legal recognition of same-sex relationships.
The president at that time, Barack Obama, had a different perspective. Running for the Democratic nomination in 2008, he opposed same-sex marriage; but as public opinions were quickly shifting, he changed his stance in 2012 to accept same-sex unions.
From a narrow victory in 2004 seeking to exploit anti-same-sex marriage sentiment to win reelection, to the election of 2012 when Obama assumed a supporting role for same-sex unions just prior to his reelection triumph, the U.S. saw remarkable change in eight years.
In 2012, the man Obama defeated, current Senator Romney, surprisingly voted in favor of safeguarding same-sex unions against any potential Supreme Court ruling that might revoke the right to marry that was recognized in 2015.
The 2022 Supreme Court is significantly more conservative than that of 2015, after the departures of Justices Anthony Kennedy and Ruth Bader Ginsburg and their replacements by Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, respectively. Two justices who have previously defended same-sex marriage rights, Thomas and Alito, still voice discontent with the Obergefell decision, but it is unclear if they would seek to abolish same-sex marriages in the same manner as they withdrew the right to abortion.
Romney, who no longer advocates for same-sex marriages, pledged to respect those who have entered into them when he endorsed the bill to preserve same-sex unions from the Supreme Court:
"While I believe in traditional marriage, Obergefell has been the law of the land upon which LGBTQ individuals have relied. This legislation provides certainty to many LGBTQ Americans, and it sends a signal that Congress - and I - treat all Americans equally."
Though the Respect for Marriage Act does not guarantee the continued existence of the national right to marry if the Supreme Court departs from the foundational 2015 ruling, it ensures that all states recognize marriages authorized in other states.
In the 2023 American Values survey commissioned by PRRI, nearly 70% of respondents in states where same-sex marriages are protected regardless of Obergefell supported such unions. However, this rate dropped to 64% in areas that would see an end to same-sex marriage without Obergefell.
Alex Lundry, a Republican pollster and a longstanding advocate for same-sex marriage, discussed this remarkable 20-year-old transformation in public opinion with me.
"It's incredible how much the views have chanced," Lundry said, further commenting, "In my assessment, it represents the most considerable and televised reversal in the polling history."
He also provided a series of data points to illuminate the profound shift in attitudes:
► First, a higher number of individuals now identify as LGBTQ. He referred to a Gallup survey, which saw double the percentage increase in the LGBTQ population from 3.5% in 2012, when Gallup first started to inquire about sexual orientation, to 7.2% in 2022, the most current information available.
► Secondly, Gen Z, those born between 1997 and 2004, has a substantial proportion - around 20% - of its members identifying as LGBTQ. Primarily identifying as bisexual, their representation helps fuel the public perception transformation.
► Consequently, a growing number of people are aware of and advocate for those who identify as gay. This trend started as early as 2004 when Dick Cheney, who was serving as vice president under George W. Bush and has a daughter who is gay, publicly disagreed with the initiative to pass an amendment against same-sex marriages. Currently, there is a significant increase in the portrayal of gay perspectives in media and government. The group Out for America, which monitors representation, has reported a dramatic increase from around 500 LGBTQ representatives in 2017 to nearly 1,200 in 2023.
► Additionally, the number of same-sex couples has more than doubled, increasing from less than 600,000 in 2008 to more than 1.2 million in 2021, with over 710,000 of those couples being legally wed, as per the Census Bureau.
False predictions
Further proof that predictions about same-sex marriages endangering "traditional marriage" were unfounded comes from a study conducted by researchers at the RAND Corporation. Their research analyzing 20 years of same-sex marriage in the US found that the rate of marriage among opposite-sex couples even rose as same-sex couples started getting married in certain states. The study also indicated that the physical health of same-sex couples improved in these states.
The changing tide
Another topic that is being used by politicians to drive voters ahead of the upcoming election is abortion rights. The significant distinction between the support for same-sex marriage and abortion rights, according to Lundry, is that support for abortion rights has remained high for decades as opposed to the considerable turnaround regarding same-sex marriage.
Another shift in societal attitudes that Lundry mentioned is legalizing marijuana. Support for this issue has gone from approximately one-third in 2002 to 70% in 2023, according to Gallup.
Not surprisingly, President Joe Biden has acted this election year to reclassify cannabis from a Schedule I drug to a Schedule III drug. This shift in classification recognizes the potential benefits of cannabis while viewing it as a drug with a lower risk of abuse.
As the ongoing battle for LGBTQ rights continues, transgender rights are at the heart of this year's political debates, particularly concerning children and gender-affirming care.
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In the 2023 American Values survey, a higher percentage of respondents in states where same-sex marriages are protected, regardless of Obergefell, supported these unions compared to those in areas where same-sex marriage would no longer be recognized.
The 2004 presidential election exit polls revealed that only a quarter of American voters endorsed equal marriage rights for same-sex couples, while 35% supported providing legal standing for same-sex partnerships similar to civil unions.
Source: edition.cnn.com
