The dictator feels strong

A year ago, when it was mainly bad news coming from the front, Putin skipped his traditional PR show. Now the Kremlin ruler seems to assume that everything is going according to plan. He appears correspondingly self-assured.

In the period before 24 February 2022, they were clearly one of the Russian president's favorite activities: the press conferences lasting several hours at the end of the year, as well as the "Direct Line" once a year, a seemingly endless broadcast that Putin used to answer selected questions from the public. Last year, the now 71-year-old dictator dispensed with both formats: Apparently, the initial situation was simply too uncomfortable. In the autumn, the Ukrainian army drove the Russian invaders out of the Kharkiv district and the city of Kherson, and the mobilization in Russia is also likely to have contributed to the decision.

In December 2023, the world looks very different, at least in Putin's eyes. The Ukrainian offensive operation has not been a great success, Western support for Kiev appears to be crumbling - and the Russian economy is also in much better shape than predicted, despite the sanctions, whose long-term effect is hardly in doubt. And so it was probably time to return to our own habits. At least almost: this time, the press conference and "direct wire" formats were combined.

There were hardly any surprises in terms of content. There was Putin's usual lesson on Ukrainian history, which again went back to the time of the October Revolution. But the Russian war against Ukraine was not the focus.

Of course, it's not Putin's fault

That was to be expected. Surveys - even if they should always be treated with caution in Russia - show that Russians are currently primarily interested in social and economic issues. On the other hand, Putin had already put the war at the forefront when he announced his fifth presidential candidacy a week ago. He did so at an appearance with the son of a killed commander of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, who is now himself the speaker of the Donetsk "parliament" and a participant in the war. Today's PR event was then probably to be understood as the start of Putin's "election campaign". His central motto seems to be: It's working.

The fact that the Russian economy has a secure cushion underneath it, unemployment is lower than ever and life expectancy is rising were some of the theses Putin emphasized. He also announced that he would tell the Putin of 2000 that he was on the right track - but that he should reconsider his naivety towards his Western partners at the time. Amidst big words, he also answered a question about the massive rise in egg prices: Insignificant mistakes by the government and the Ministry of Agriculture were to blame, which could be corrected, Putin said. Of course, it's not his fault.

There were hardly any really new insights. Putin announced that there are allegedly 617,000 Russian soldiers deployed in Ukraine. Indirectly, he spoke out against the ban on abortion, which state propaganda had been promoting in recent months, a concern of the Orthodox Church.

Critical questions to feign plurality

All of this served the purpose of showing the citizens: Things should continue exactly as before, the campaign against Ukraine may continue to be ignored by ordinary Russian consumers. Especially as, according to Putin, there is no need for a new wave of mobilization. Last year showed just how much such promises are worth: the announcement of mobilization was immediately followed by similar assurances that it was not necessary. In this respect, it was remarkable that Putin did not mention the issue of so-called demobilization at all. Relatives of men who were drafted in September 2022 have been protesting for weeks and months that their husbands and sons should finally be allowed to return home. For now, this is anything but in sight.

Meanwhile, critical questions occasionally flickered on the screens behind Putin. For example: "Why does your reality diverge from our reality?" Something like this should not be overestimated. It is quite possible that such questions were coordinated with the Kremlin for reasons of apparent plurality. According to information from the Russian-language BBC, this was the case with the "direct line" in 2017, also shortly before the elections. It is unlikely that anyone will lose their job over this.

Putin obviously feels strong

Unlike a year ago, the Putin of December 2023 is confident - and believes that everything is going according to plan. When one of the Russian "war correspondents" asks him about problems with the drone operation, the Russian president asks him to say that things have already improved. Of course, the propagandist responds immediately. "Now please take a seat," Putin continues. It is not even for tactical purposes that the Kremlin ruler prominently brings up the subject of possible negotiations with Ukraine, although he has been happy to do so in the past - with the usual reference that it is Ukraine and its Western "curators" who are blocking talks. Apparently Putin feels so strong that he does not consider such tactics necessary.

Instead, it is once again a case of saying that there will only be peace once the goals of the "special military operation" have been achieved - the "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine. In any case, Russians and Ukrainians are one people and Odessa is a Russian city - we already know that. Ukraine receives Western weapons virtually free of charge, but this is now coming to an end, even if Kiev will still get something.

Putin has increased his own military budget for 2024 by 70 percent compared to the current year, and Russian budget planning shows that he is planning for more years of war. He is certain that time is playing in his favor. He is not entirely wrong. But the history of his regime also shows that it has made the most mistakes when it was too selfish. That was the case on February 24, 2022 and could happen again. Especially if the West finally recognizes the seriousness of the situation.

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Source: www.ntv.de