The CDU/CSU party continues to gain popularity, with Wüst and Söder's figures surpassing that of Merz.
The CDU/CSU is expanding its lead over the "traffic light" parties once again. Yet, Merz is not the top pick for Germans to become chancellor. His competitors are gaining momentum.
The latest developments show that the CDU's popularity keeps growing. In the weeks leading up to the European elections, the party has gained more support from Germans, rising up to 32%. They've also widened the gap with the SPD, pushing them down by one more point to 16%. The RTL/ntv Trendbarometer also indicates that the Greens and the Sahra Wagenknecht coalition (BSW) are making strides, while the FDP is on the decline. Wagenknecht's coalition stands at 5%, along with the Greens. The FDP now sits at 5%, down from its earlier level of 11.5%. There's been no significant change in support for the SPD, AfD, or Linke, all of which remain at their previous levels.
According to these trends, if the Bundestag were to be voted on right then, the parties might see the following results: CDU/CSU 32%, SPD 16%, AFG 15%, Greens 13%, FDP 5%, and BSW 5%. In the last Bundestag election, 23.4% of voters didn't cast their ballots and were undecided. The picture hasn't changed significantly from that time.
The German public is starting to show preference for the CDU's Friedrich Merz as the next chancellor. If Scholz, the current one, were to go up against Merz and Economics Minister Robert Habeck of the Greens, Merz could gain an additional two percentage points to 25%. Scholz would drop by one point, sharing 17% with Habeck.
If Scholz faced Merz, Söder (CDU Minister President of Bavaria), and Wüst (CDU head of North Rhine-Westphalia) in a race for chancellor, Merz's support would still be at 28%. That would mean both Scholz and Habeck would have to lose a percentage point. In a hypothetical direct election for the Federal Chancellor, Scholz would receive 20% of votes, with Baerbock, the Green Foreign Minister, registering 15% support.
Nonetheless, a rematch between Scholz and the leader of the leading opposition party could happen instead of a three-way race in the upcoming Bundestag elections. The Trendbarometer has gauged how Germans would make their choice in an imaginary direct election between Scholz and potential CDU/CSU contenders, Merz, Söder, and Wüst.
Despite the generally negative evaluation of Scholz's actions so far, 32% of eligible voters would opt for him over Merz. Merz would get 29% of the votes. Söder and Wüst, on the other hand, would perform significantly better, with Söder 4% and Wüst 6% ahead of Scholz.
These higher ratings for the CDU/CSU party and leader Merz are also expressed as confidence in their political competence. The CDU/CSU shines in this regard, scoring a two-point increase to 18%, much higher than the 8% achieved by the SPD. 7% of respondents think the Greens have the ability to address Germany's issues, while 5% rate the AfD. The Liberals are deemed politically capable by just 3% of the public.
The war in Ukraine continues to be the most captivating issue for Germans, with 46% interested in the subject. The government's work, the economic situation, and the conflict in the Middle East tie for second place, each receiving 26% of attention. Other concerns have also edged their way into Germans' minds, including the looming European elections (16%) and attacks on politicians (14%).
The data for the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer was gathered by the market and opinion research institute Forsa for RTL Germany between May 7-13. It's founded on responses from 2006 individuals, with a margin of error of plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. For more information about Forsa, check out their website. Forsa conducts surveys for RTL Germany.
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Source: www.ntv.de
