"Sunak and the Conservatives need a miracle": Tories face an election defeat in 2024

Great Britain - "Sunak and the Conservatives need a miracle": Tories face an election defeat in 2024

Shortly before the end of the year, the British government announced a Brexit victory. Sparkling wine and wine can once again be sold in bottles the size of a pint, i.e. 0.568 liters, as was the case before EU membership. The end of EU regulations makes it possible. For some tradition-conscious Brits, this is a success. However, it is doubtful whether this change will also give the Conservative leadership of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak new momentum. In the 2024 election year - a vote is expected in May or the fall - the Tories are facing a debacle.

"Sunak and the Conservatives need a miracle," says political scientist Mark Garnett from the University of Lancaster. Polls have long been predicting a landslide defeat for the government. The opposition Labor Party is leading by between 15 and 25 percentage points. This also gives the Tories little cause for hope: The gap to the Social Democrats is not shrinking sustainably. In 2023, the Tories never managed to get above 29% - if they were to achieve this figure in the election, it would be their worst result ever, reported the online newspaper "i".

The wounds of the past

Two names in particular are associated with the decline: Boris Johnson, who offended voters with lies, the mire of the "Partygate" affair and the appearance of cronyism. And his successor Liz Truss, the Prime Minister with the shortest term in office in history, who plunged the economy into chaos with adventurous announcements - something many Britons still suffer from today. After almost 14 years of Conservative governments with a total of five prime ministers, many Britons have had enough.

Incumbent Sunak, who is presenting himself as a candidate for a fresh start even though he has already been in government, cannot stop the downward spiral. Even in the EU, few people are counting on Sunak: according to reports, the German government does not expect the prime minister to make an inaugural visit. Instead, they are in the process of forging closer ties with Labor.

Five promises - only one has been fulfilled

Sunak has not yet found an issue with which he could win a broad mass of people back to his side. In the spring, he will probably announce tax cuts and inheritance tax is likely to be scrapped, according to reports in the British media. A year ago, the 43-year-old made five promises against which he wanted to be judged. At most one has been fulfilled: inflation has more than halved. However, economists emphasize that Sunak is less responsible for this than the improved global economic situation.

The rest of the "pledges" are in a bad way: the economy is stagnating, national debt is not falling and waiting times at the National Health Service (NHS) have even increased further. Irregular migration has decreased slightly, but the backlog of asylum applications is far from being cleared.

Sunak is not a speaker like Johnson, he does not sweep people off their feet during his appearances. Instead, the son of a doctor and a pharmacist comes across as the investment banker he once was. His great wealth and his tendency to travel even short distances by helicopter reinforce the image of the aloof politician.

Tories at loggerheads

Sunak promised "integrity, professionalism and accountability at all levels" when he took office just over 14 months ago. After the scandals under Johnson, the country was hoping for stability. But the Tories themselves are still causing the most excitement. Internal party problems are distracting from government plans. Recently, Home Secretary James Cleverly had to apologize for a joke about knockout drops. Only shortly before, the government had announced new measures against "spiking" - the misuse of knockout drops.

Politically, too, the Tories do not always pull in the same direction. Sunak was able to avert a revolt from the right against his asylum policy before Christmas. However, the issue is likely to continue to boil over in the new year. The right-wing Conservatives have allegedly received promises - which the Moderates reject. A compromise? Not in sight.

"Sunak's biggest challenge at the start of the year is to avoid splits in his party," says expert Garnett. Many MPs no longer care about public loyalty. "They believe the next election is already lost," says Garnett. Dozens of MPs have already announced that they will not stand again. It is rumored that the remaining Tories are already fighting fiercely for the last constituencies considered safe.

Another change of leadership?

Political scientist Garnett does not rule out the possibility of another leadership change. "Many Tory MPs may see a new leader as the party's last chance," he says. There is lively speculation in the background about possible successors to Sunak - especially for the role of opposition leader after the election.

Names such as Business Minister Kemi Badenoch, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former Secretary of State for Migration Robert Jenrick, who all belong to the right wing of the party, have long been mentioned. Experts expect the Tories to move even further to the right following an election defeat.

The danger from the right in the UK

They are already struggling with the poll success of the right-wing Reform UK party - once founded as a Brexit party, which became the strongest force in the UK in the 2019 European elections. After being marginalized by the Tories for a long time, the right-wing populists are now polling at up to ten percent. Even if they have little chance of winning seats in the British majority vote, they are likely to cost the Tories votes.

The prime minister could even be replaced by a right-wing populist: Brexit campaigner and reform co-founder Nigel Farage has been flirting with rejoining the Conservative Party for weeks - and does not rule out taking over the leadership when asked.