Selensky's fight against war fatigue

Ukraine war - Selensky's fight against war fatigue

For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been scarred by almost two years of war, 2024 is likely to be the fateful year. Despite Russia's invasion, the 45-year-old can proudly point to the start of negotiations for EU accession. But the victory over Moscow's invasion promised a year ago is not in sight.

The counter-offensive by the armed forces to liberate the territories occupied by Russia is considered a failure. There is talk of a war of position, a stalemate, a dead end in the second winter of war. And solidarity in the West for the country fighting for its survival is also crumbling.

Russia continues to control around a fifth of Ukraine's territory. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the worst bloodshed in Europe since the Second World War. As a result, the pressure on Zelenskyi to deliver results is growing not only in the country itself, but also internationally.

However, Zelenskyi is fighting back. "Ukraine will not lose its strength and its freedom," he emphasized at the end of November. "In the end, darkness will lose. Evil will be defeated," he said in his Christmas message. The President warned against war-weariness or even a freeze in the conflict, as this would only help Russia to regain its military strength.

Above all, however, despite increasing calls for negotiations, Zelensky is still determined to settle the conflict on the battlefield. He wants to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, to weaken the country as much as possible so that it can never unleash such aggression again. "Russia's defeat means security for Europe," he said.

Difficult times for Zelensky - Kiev struggles for further help

However, Zelenskyi and Ukraine are still dependent on international aid to achieve victory. And this is dwindling - partly due to the war in Gaza, which is drawing a lot of attention away from Ukraine from the USA and other allies. Next year's US presidential election is already casting a shadow over support for the war. Supporters of ex-President Donald Trump, who is running for office among the Republicans, are blocking the new financial and military aid packages for the country, which are urgently needed in the defensive struggle.

The European Union is supposed to step in, but has so far been unable to replace the USA either in terms of supplying ammunition or money. This is causing the President concern. There are also problems at home, such as the fight against corruption, ensuring energy security in winter and mobilizing soldiers for the war. The commanders have long been calling for more personnel on the front line to operate the western weapons. But Selensky is hesitating - also because the up to 500,000 soldiers required will cost billions.

Just a year ago, the US magazine "Time" named Zelensky the person of the year for 2022. In the meantime, former companions have accused him of high-handedness, resistance to advice and an increasingly authoritarian leadership style. Under Zelensky, an "open liberal society based on the American model" is by no means emerging in Ukraine, said the former advisor in the president's office, Olexiy Arestovych, recently. Rather, it resembles an "ultranationalist state" pumped full of US weapons.

In the fall of 2023, the "Time" cover story "The Lonely Struggle of Volodymyr Zelensky" attracted a lot of attention in political Kiev. The investigation revealed the growing resentment towards the president in his circle - and attested to the former actor's loss of reality and life in an illusory world. Zelensky felt betrayed by the West, which was not giving enough weapons to win the war; he was only giving enough for the country to survive, it was said.

Complaints about Zelensky in everyday life and political power games in Kiev

There is little criticism of Zelensky in Kiev's media, which demonstrate unity and submit to war censorship. Yet the complaints about the head of state have long been heard in everyday life. Many Ukrainians still criticize Zelensky for playing down the danger of war before the start of the Russian attack on 24 February 2022 and for doing nothing for a strong military even before that. Despite US warnings about Moscow's invasion, he had let people walk into the open. Others are disappointed because Zelensky promised peace when he took office in 2019.

Ahead of the second anniversary of the war launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Zelensky continues to insist on the implementation of his "peace formula". Its core is the demand for a complete Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine. Moscow rejects this as "unrealistic" because a withdrawal would be seen as Putin's capitulation. This is another reason why Kiev and Moscow are preparing for a continuation of hostilities in 2024.

While Putin is now running his war economy at full speed and relying on hundreds of thousands of volunteers, Ukraine has long been considered unable to survive without foreign aid. Selensky, who is considered a brilliant orator and often carries his Western allies away with his emotionality, also relies on the power of words in his fight. "If there is no victory, then there will be no country," he said in November.

The former comedian does not tolerate criticism of his conduct of the war. He recently demonstrated this when he rebuked the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Valery Salushnyi. Salushnyj has long been rumored to have political ambitions. In Kiev, it is said that the battle for power is already in full swing again in the country, which is striving to join the EU and NATO. Not only Salushnyj, but also Kiev's mayor Vitali Klitschko, who accused Selenskyj of mistakes and lies, could pose a threat to the president in an election.

Ukrainians show unbroken will to win

However, the presidential election originally planned for the beginning of March has been canceled due to the continuing martial law. At the beginning of November, Selensky emphasized that "elections are not appropriate now". Instead of political division, resources should be focused on "our victory" over Russia. However, the belief in victory over Russia and a return to the borders of 1991 appears to remain unbroken among Ukrainians, with almost 70 percent of respondents, as surveys show. They reject the idea of voluntarily giving up territories.

However, after the successes of Kiev's troops last year, the euphoria has faded for some. According to several surveys, around a third of the population believe that things in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction. Zelenskyi, for example, had television stations closed down; he revoked the citizenship of unwelcome compatriots. Martial law also provides him with instruments that are not only directed against the pro-Russian part of the opposition. The right to demonstrate is restricted. Parliamentary debates are held behind closed doors on the grounds of security.

"There can be no question of a balance of thought and freedom of opinion," complained MP Iryna Herashchenko on Telegram. The representatives of the second-largest parliamentary faction of ex-President Petro Poroshenko's European Solidarity party are underrepresented on television with four percent and are usually only portrayed in a negative light, she said. Western supporters are also urging Kiev in the background to allow more media freedom again.

Kiev rejects compromises in the war with Russia

According to opinion pollsters, all of this is having an impact on Zelensky's approval ratings. According to polls, support for his policies stood at 42% in September - down from 74% in April 2022, when Ukraine saw the first withdrawal of Russian troops from Kiev.

However, the head of state continues to rule out compromises and asserts at every opportunity: "Nobody believes in our victory as much as I do." He promises new plans for 2024 that would surprise Moscow and hit it hard. And he is hoping for new billions from the EU and the USA. To this end, the US F-16 fighter jets expected in the spring are primarily intended to help break Russia's air superiority.

The head of Zelensky's presidential office, Andriy Yermak, who is considered an eminence grise in Kiev, expects 2024 to be a "decisive year" for Ukraine. "The turning point of the war is approaching," he emphasized in an interview on TV channel 1+1. Jermak recently compared the war several times to a 100-metre race, in which 70 meters have already been covered. But the last few meters are the hardest, he admitted.

Russia, on the other hand, has long since prepared itself for a marathon that it wants to win at all costs. The "Politico" portal recently reminded us that Zelenskyi did not run away when the war broke out and that he also has what it takes to be a "marathon runner".