Selensky cannot clear up the Salushnyj issue

One week after Putin, Ukrainian President Zelensky also holds a press conference to take stock of the year. Unlike at the show in Moscow, Zelensky does not avoid sensitive topics. He calls the Russian dictator a "sick person".

The difference between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's annual press conference and Russian ruler Vladimir Putin's PR event last week could hardly have been greater.

Putin had completely ignored the hot topic of the return of the soldiers mobilized in September 2022, although there have been protests by soldiers' wives and mothers in Russia for some time. He merely promised - unconvincingly - that there would be no further mobilization. In addition, he only answered two questions from foreign correspondents accredited in Moscow, i.e. journalists who are unlikely to be prepared to coordinate their questions with the Kremlin in advance.

Selensky, on the other hand, began with the difficult and sensitive topic. Not surprisingly, he described both mobilization and demobilization as extremely complicated issues. The popular army commander-in-chief Valery Salushny and the Ukrainian General Staff had suggested that he mobilize between 450,000 and 500,000 more soldiers, among other things in order to be able to carry out new offensive operations. "However, I need more arguments as to why so many people are necessary," emphasized the 45-year-old, who addressed some of the points of criticism at his press conference that representatives of his party Servants of the People had raised with regard to the military plans of recent weeks. This had led to discussions in the Ukrainian public about the relationship between Selensky and Salushny.

Mobilization of women not planned

Selensky denied any personal conflict with Salushny, who had criticized the dismissal of all heads of regional conscription offices in August on Monday. When asked why he never clearly commented on his relationship with Salushnyi, Selenskyi said: "Why do I have to continue this topic at all? I have a working relationship with Salushnyj. I only have personal relations with my wife."

At the same time, the president let it be known that there are differences after all. For one thing, the topic of demobilization is missing from the General Staff's current drafts. "If there is another large-scale mobilization, then there must also be a defined demobilization process, whatever it is actually called and what it actually looks like," said Selenskyj.

Secondly, he emphasized the economic aspect. In order to mobilize more than 450,000 people, Ukraine would need the equivalent of more than 12 billion euros. "I also want to defend the civilians a little on this issue," said the president, who has been in office since 2019. "You have to understand the financial contribution that has to be made to pay salaries to soldiers. One soldier is like six civilians paying taxes. That means plus three million taxpayers from January. Where am I supposed to find them?" Selensky did not definitively reject the plan, but emphasized that he would like to hear more arguments - just as he would for the lowering of the conscription age for the front from 27 to 25, which has long been decided by parliament, but which he agrees with in principle. However, Selenskyj categorically rejected speculation about the mobilization of women.

"I won't say anything about plans for 2024"

In military terms, the President reaffirmed his strategic adherence to the goal of liberating the entire territory of Ukraine, including the territories occupied in 2014. "In view of the assessments of the offensive operations of 2023, however, the tactics could be changed," said Selensky. Decisions in this regard are to be made by the end of the year, but the President does not want to provide any information on this in any case: "We also had difficulties in the south because everyone was constantly talking about what our goals were and how they were to be achieved." But that's not how it works with Russia, which simply has more weapons. "That's why I can't and won't say anything about plans for next year."

Selensky cited the lack of air force strength as another reason why 2023 did not go as planned in military terms. However, Russia had not achieved a strategic goal either. "They first spoke of three days [until victory] and then of the occupied territories within full borders", i.e. the complete conquest of the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, which Russia has not yet achieved. "Well, it's not three days, but two years," emphasized Selenskyj, who spoke in this context of the "three-day plans of a sick person". However, the Ukrainian president considers the war in the Middle East to be a "diplomatic victory" for Russia. The problem for Ukraine is the prioritization of aid: Some partners would say that Ukraine should of course be helped first, while others would see it somewhat differently.

Thanks to Scholz

However, following Zelensky's recent trips to South America, the USA and some European countries, attention for Ukraine has increased again. "I am certain that the USA will not betray us," he commented on the ongoing debate between the Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress. He continues to hope for a quick solution.

This also applies to the pending EU decision on financial aid to Ukraine amounting to 50 billion euros, which is being blocked by Hungary. Even if Hungary does not agree, there are possibilities that the EU will release the money. And Selenskyj pointed out that Germany was Ukraine's second largest supporter and that he was personally very grateful to Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz - but that it was also necessary to see what "as long as necessary" meant in practice.

Optimistic, but not "over-optimistic"

With regard to a possible election victory by Donald Trump in November 2024, Selenskyj merely said that there would certainly be a slightly different policy in the White House. Selensky rejected the idea of only part of Ukraine joining NATO and only placing the territory controlled by Kiev under the protection of Article 5.

Overall, the Ukrainian president exuded cautious optimism, which is his job as head of state. He also had a clear answer to questions from Western journalists as to whether he was afraid that Ukraine could still lose this war and that the Russian strategy of attrition could work in the long term. At the same time, he did not come across as the "over-optimistic Selensky" that he is sometimes portrayed as in contrast to the "sober Salushny" in the West. When he said that no one knows whether the war will end in 2024, he apparently meant not only that a much longer war is very likely, but also that things could turn out very differently than most experts had predicted.

However, it is also clear that domestic political speculation about tensions between Zelenskyi and Salushnyi will not disappear from the Ukrainian media after this appearance, even if Salushnyi himself is currently practically untouchable: according to the latest survey by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute, 88% of people in Ukraine trust him.