"Russians see last year as a success"

After Christmas and over the New Year, Russia launched its heaviest drone and missile attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war. "From a military point of view, 2023 was a success for the Russians," says Colonel Markus Reisner. That's why Russia is entering the new year with renewed self-confidence.

ntv.de: The new year began for the people of Ukraine with a record number of 90 drone attacks in just one night, with many injured and also dead. Is this the new benchmark of Russian terrorism that Ukraine will have to prepare for in 2024?

Markus Reisner: Yes, unfortunately the fears have come true that Russia's second strategic air campaign will be a high point, especially over Christmas and New Year. In recent weeks and months, the Russian side has been trying to specifically reconnoitre the position of Ukrainian air defense systems in order to then carry out massive strikes, such as last night and the attack on the night of 29 December with 158 drones and cruise missiles.

What is the aim of these large-scale attacks?

Russia is pursuing three objectives. Firstly, it is an attempt to further destroy critical infrastructure. According to Ukrainian figures, Russia destroyed around 50 to 60 percent in the winter of 2022/23. The Ukrainians have repaired 10 to 15 percent, which means that around half of the critical infrastructure is still operational. The Russian side wants to destroy it. And then there are Logistics, warehouses, command structures of the Ukrainian armed forces. The second goal is to exercise terror and break the morale of the Ukrainians. In December alone, there were air strikes every day with two exceptions. This means that the civilian population was forced to go to the air raid shelters almost every night. That was extremely demoralizing.

And the third objective?

That's another military one. Russia is increasingly trying to saturate the air defense systems supplied by the West. The aim behind this is to achieve constant attrition by trying to specifically attack Patriot and IRIS-T systems. The main issue here is the ammunition, that is the decisive factor. If there is enough ammunition, the Ukrainian side can continue to defend itself against these attacks. But if there is nothing, it will be difficult. The Russians have steadily increased the number of cruise missiles and drones deployed, which shows that they have obviously managed to increase their military armament capacities enormously, especially this year.

Does the oversaturation of air defense mean that Ukrainian air defense is no longer sufficient? Last night, 87 out of 90 drones were intercepted, which is a lot. On Friday, however, the air defense was unable to shoot down 44 out of 158 cruise missiles and drones.

The figures cannot be validated. What speaks in favor of the Ukrainian reporting, however, is that they admitted on Friday that they had only shot down around 75 to 80 percent of the incoming cruise missiles and drones. What is not known is which targets were hit. You can see the impact of missiles or falling debris in civilian neighborhoods. But very little is seen of military targets. To saturate air defenses, Russia uses a dangerous combination of drones and cruise missiles. First, drones are sent to saturate the air defenses so that they can react, fire their missiles or deploy the Cheetahs. Then come the cruise missiles. As these fly fast and close to the ground, they can only be detected very late and can therefore often penetrate.

Do cruise missiles have any other advantages?

They have greater impact power, whereas drones are mainly used for terror and to saturate air defenses. In addition, the Russian cruise missiles are precision weapons comparable to the Taurus or the Storm Shadow. They therefore have a very high hit accuracy. The dilemma is that if 90 out of 100 incoming cruise missiles are shot down, this is a very high rate, but the ten that do penetrate cause massive destruction.

Let's take a look at the front line. How have the Ukrainian soldiers fared there over the past few days and over Christmas?

Ukraine is trying very intelligently to move the focus away from the front and has created spectacular events that were immediately picked up by the international media. For example, President Zelensky's visit to the front. The reason is that things are not going well for Ukraine at the moment. Although there are no massive advances from the Russian side, there is steady progress. The Russians are working their way forward meter by meter, sometimes with heavy losses. Ukraine has created several lines of defense over the last eight years and the Russians have managed to break through the first lines. Once they have broken through all of them, it is more or less open country behind them. This can be seen clearly in Marjinka. The town was turned into a Ukrainian fortress for years. Nevertheless, the Russians took the town. As a result, Ukraine has lost a very important fortification bulwark.

Ukraine is now starting to build new defenses in the depths. The Russians are doing the same as last year in winter. They are trying to force Ukraine to use its regional tactical and operational reserves along the entire front line, in the hope that the Ukrainians will eventually run out of these reserves and they will then be able to push through.

How can 2023 be summarized?

The Russians see 2023 as a success - for several reasons: Militarily, they managed to take not only Bachmut, but also Marjinka. It may be an insignificant city for us, but it is a very important fortress for the defense of Ukraine. And the most important thing from the Russian point of view is that we have succeeded in repelling the Ukrainian offensive. At the beginning of the year, the mood on Russian social media was mixed because people didn't know what was going to happen. But that changed abruptly in June, when it became clear that Ukraine's first offensive attempts had failed. From a military point of view, this was an absolute success for the Russian side.

What else do they consider a success?

Economically, despite twelve packages of sanctions, they have managed to stabilize the Russian economy, at least in the medium term, and to kick-start the military-industrial complex. They are in a position to produce new weapons and armaments and steadily bring them to the front. The same with new soldiers: not just reservists, but new contract servicemen. Russia has managed to achieve a steady supply for military purposes. The third area is diplomacy. They have been able to consolidate Russia's position in the so-called global South and even form new partnerships. New conflicts, such as in the Gaza Strip or the attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea, are causing increasing problems for the global North. From Russia's point of view, this is a success. It gives them self-confidence. This makes it possible for the Russian side to act accordingly in information warfare, rally its own population behind it and continue to attack on a massive scale.

What does this mean for 2024?

Russia is going into this year with a very high level of self-confidence and hopes to achieve decisive successes. This is exactly the culmination point we are approaching. The USA is increasingly preoccupied with other conflicts, the maritime alliance in the Red Sea, support for Israel or the issue with Taiwan. This means that the Europeans are now called upon. However, it is hard to see that the much-cited turning point is actually being implemented. We need to act quickly and decisively.

Vivian Micks spoke with Markus Reisner

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Russia continued its aggressive actions against Ukraine, with a record number of drone attacks in Kyiv on New Year's Eve. This tactic of massive aerial assaults is aimed at destroying critical infrastructure, breaking the morale of the Ukrainian people, and saturating the country's air defense systems, as Colonel Markus Reisner explained. Furthermore, the Ukrainian defense lines around Bachmut have been under intense pressure, with Russia claiming victory in the strategic city.

Source: www.ntv.de