Peace, joy, SPD

After Putin's statement that Russia does not want to mess with any NATO state, alarm bells should be ringing louder than ever, as he had spoken in a similar vein about Ukraine. But the Social Democrats are indulging in pacifist wishful thinking - and punishing real politicians.

When Olaf Scholz is no longer chancellor, he will be remembered for three things: his memory lapses, his inability to communicate and his "turning point" speech immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and in February 2022, in which the Social Democrat showed that he had what it takes to be a great leader. After Putin's aggression, "our standard is: what is needed to secure peace in Europe will be done."

This was followed by an agonizingly long period in which the government delayed deliveries to Ukraine, with the Chancellor remaining silent and making all kinds of excuses. The defending country is still waiting for urgently needed Taurus cruise missiles. On the other hand, Germany is now one of the largest suppliers of military equipment to Ukraine. Scholz has been justifying his course for months as follows: "Russia must not win and Ukraine must not lose." This is exactly what the world has been experiencing for months: a trench war like 100 years ago, in which nobody wins and nobody loses.

Of course, it is possible that there is a strategy behind Scholz's stance, for example that Germany does not want to hand over the few operational weapons it has in case Russia attacks a NATO country and the Americans say: your thing! If this is the case, the Chancellor should explain himself so that the guesswork is over. It is much more likely that he will shy away from Putin's hints of using nuclear weapons. SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich provided an insight into the thoughts of his comrades. At the recent party conference, he praised Scholz for having received "the promise" from China in Beijing that "nuclear weapons must never be used in armed conflicts".

Folklore for the pacifists

"I'm sure that has saved us a lot," said Mützenich. It sounded as if Scholz had prevented a nuclear war. But the Chinese are doing what they want. Germany's influence on the communists in Beijing is close to zero. Mützenich once again showed a lack of reality. He called for diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine - which is good and right. The SPD man explained that it was not about "negotiating with a war criminal, but about making it clear that we will not miss any opportunity to perhaps give this diplomacy a chance".

Anyone who formulates it in such a windy way probably doesn't believe in what they are saying themselves. This was the usual party conference folklore to ensnare the pacifists and Russia-lovers in the SPD. There is still no reason to believe that Putin wants to negotiate. Scholz and the SPD should also finally announce what Ukraine could give the emperor in the Kremlin to make the war worthwhile for him. He recently claimed: "Russia has no reasons, no interest - neither geopolitically, economically nor militarily - in fighting with NATO countries." Putin said the same thing before the invasion of Ukraine. So why is he setting up a "Leningrad military district" close to the Finnish border and threatening the neighboring country with "problems"?

A learning curve like the Wadden Sea

Alarm bells should be ringing by now at the latest. But so far there have been vague announcements and the hope that Joe Biden will win the presidential election in the USA so that the Americans can continue to hold their protective hand over Europe. Mützenich had said that he had "completely underestimated" Putin. The consequence of this for him is not to finally accept that the risk of war is higher than it has been for decades and that Germany must take action. Mützenich preferred to caress his comrades on the left wing and was "appalled" by "the chatter from Germany too", by which he meant former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, a member of the Greens. He had called on Europe to arm itself with nuclear weapons: "As long as we have a neighbor Russia that follows Putin's imperial ideology, we cannot do without deterring this Russia."

However, the SPD's learning curve is as shallow as the Wadden Sea. It would only need to look at the warnings from the Baltic states long before Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Only Federal Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and SPD foreign policy expert Michael Roth have recognized the signs of the times, presumably Scholz too, but once again he remains silent. In unison, Pistorius and Roth are calling on Germany to prepare for a defensive war. They are guided by the bitter realization that dictators who start wars can only be stopped by force of arms. "Creating peace without weapons" remains a beautiful but unrealistic dream.

Roth was punished for his stance and failed the SPD leadership election. Worse than the defeat was the derisive laughter when the result was announced. A victory for the SPD left-wingers around Mützenich, who reject the idea of making Germany "fit for war", as Pistorius and Roth advocate. The extent to which the Social Democrats have distanced themselves from the "turning point" postulated by their chancellor is also shown by the fact that it only took one day for SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert to reject the defense minister's proposal for compulsory military service based on the Swedish model. There are good arguments against the reintroduction of compulsory military service. But to simply dismiss Pistorius' approach as not capable of winning a majority in the SPD speaks volumes, as does the entire party conference of staged unity: peace, joy, SPD.

Let's hope that Putin wasn't lying for once

One can only come to the conclusion that the SPD is not taking the "turn of an era" seriously enough. Germany, with its poorly equipped army and navy, is a long way from being ready for war and defense. Rearmament is progressing at a sluggish pace at best. Kühnert and other leading Social Democrats constantly claim that they will adhere to the NATO target of investing two percent of Germany's economic output in the military budget. But this will not be achieved until 2024 at the earliest and only by including the special funds for the Bundeswehr.

The sad result of this policy is currently visible once again. As an export nation, Germany is dependent on global trade. According to calculations by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), almost ten percent of our foreign trade is shipped via the Suez Canal, which flows into the Red Sea and connects Europe and Asia. Germany is planning to participate in or support the US-led military alliance to secure shipping in the crisis region by attacking Houthi rebels. But when and how remains to be seen. If the Bundestag agrees, the German navy will first have to find a war-worthy ship that can be deployed. Great Britain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Bahrain and the Seychelles want to help the Americans. In other words: a tiny island state is on board, while Germany, according to "government circles", still has to clarify "practical and legal issues". If this is the turning point, then let's hope that Putin wasn't lying again when he said he would leave the NATO states alone.