Orban blocked, Ukraine warns: the EU summit has great potential for drama

Dispute over accession talks - Orban blocked, Ukraine warns: the EU summit has great potential for drama

Is there a lot of excitement and then a happy ending after all? Or will there be a big row and debacle this time? Shortly before the last regular EU summit of the year, it is completely unclear how the heads of state and government will part company after their deliberations. The two-day meeting in Brussels will focus on the European Commission's proposal to open EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. Discussions are also planned on a possible increase in the long-term EU budget. According to the EU Commission, this should be supplemented by a new financing instrument for Ukraine, among other things. 50 billion euros could thus be made available to the country attacked by Russia over the next few years.

It is unclear whether far-reaching decisions can be made at the summit.

Following blockade threats by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the start of the summit has already been delayed. According to a spokesperson for EU Council President Charles Michel on Thursday morning, there will be small group talks with Orban before the summit. According to the spokesperson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will also take part.

Orban could use veto at EU summit as leverage

Orban has made it clear several times in recent weeks that he believes no decisions should be made on the budget and EU accession negotiations with Ukraine at present - for example, because the country attacked by Russia has not yet fulfilled all the reform requirements. As decisions on both issues must be made by consensus, Orban could theoretically block them with a veto.

EU diplomats believe it is possible that Orban only wants to increase the pressure to free up further frozen EU funds for his country. However, others point out that the right-wing populist has recently repeatedly claimed that he will not back down on the issue of Ukraine even after the release of funds.

In a letter to EU Council President Charles Michel, Orban recently wrote that he urgently requested that no resolutions be planned for the summit, as this would lead to failure in view of the lack of consensus. Such a counterproductive scenario must be avoided in the interests of EU unity.

On Wednesday, shortly before the summit, the EU Commission announced that it would release ten billion euros in frozen EU funds for Hungary because reform requirements had been met with judicial reforms. However, other budget funds amounting to almost twelve billion euros and billions of euros in coronavirus aid remain blocked.

Ukraine warns the EU against saying no

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is expected to attend the summit. He has already signaled that he supports a decision to start EU accession negotiations with Ukraine. However, the German government is opposed to the EU Commission's proposal to make additional payments of billions into the EU budget by the end of 2027, for example to better promote the competitiveness of industry. From a German perspective, only additional funds should be earmarked to support Ukraine and other previously unplanned expenditure should be financed through reallocations.

The government in Kiev recently warned of "devastating consequences" if the EU summit on the start of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine were to fail due to a veto by Hungary. If there is no positive decision, this would be extremely demotivating for the people of Ukraine, said Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba at the beginning of the week. It would also give the impression to the outside world that the EU is not in a position to make decisions of a historic nature.

With a view to the desired start of accession negotiations with the EU, Kuleba argued that his country had fulfilled a large part of its outstanding obligations. In addition to anti-corruption laws, these included the rules on education and the use of the languages of national minorities that Hungary had demanded.

"The start of EU accession negotiations would primarily be a symbolic step"

However, Orban sees the open Ukrainian admission that it has not yet fully met all the requirements as a point in itself. He argues that the EU Commission's proposal for the start of accession negotiations is not compatible with a summit decision from June 2022. This states that further steps in the accession process should only be decided once "all these conditions are fully met".

Supporters of a positive decision, on the other hand, point out that the start of EU accession negotiations would primarily be a symbolic step, as the talks are likely to take many years and Ukraine's accession before the end of the Russian war of aggression is considered impossible.