Moscow's purge might persist, says ISW.
A wave of dismissals is sweeping through the Russian Ministry of Defense, and it might not stop there, as military bloggers predict. The Kremlin could be one of the biggest winners from this, as ISW points out. They show that no Russian defense or military official is completely safe.
What is driving this wave of dismissals in the Russian Ministry of Defense? The Institute for the Study of War suggests that the Kremlin may be using allegations of corruption as a pretext to hide the actual reasons for firing certain unpopular figures from the Ministry of Defense.
It's unlikely that the Kremlin will stop at just the recent arrests and dismissals of high-level officials. Military bloggers agree with a Russian insider source who says that six other ministry officials want to resign after their boss, Sergei Shoigu, was fired. Some of these bloggers even believe that the Russian authorities will continue their investigation.
The ISW says that bloggers are also speculating about who might be dismissed or charged next. One blogger suggested a deputy defense minister who could be targeted for investigations, while others pointed to possible connections between the arrested or dismissed individuals in the ministry and the military as hints about future possible targets. Russian state news agency TASS even mentioned that the investigation into the recent arrest of Deputy Chief of the General Staff Vadim Shamarin is still ongoing.
At the same time, the bloggers are praising the arrests as the start of bringing corrupt officials to justice under the new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. "The Kremlin may be encouraging this criticism because it is aimed at people targeted by the Ministry of Defense," writes ISW. This way, the bloggers are helping to strengthen the image of the new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov as a problem solver - different from his previously criticized predecessor, Shoigu. "The Kremlin benefits from the fact that military bloggers emphasize that no Russian defense or military official is safe from the consequences of disappointing Putin's favor," ISW suggests.
According to the think tank, the Kremlin may also be trying to win over military bloggers, who have long called for substantial reforms in the Russian Defense Ministry and military leadership. For months, these bloggers have experienced censorship and self-censorship, but now they can openly criticize the dismissed individuals.
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- Amidst the ongoing purge in the Russian Ministry of Defense, concerns about Russia's military readiness have surfaced, particularly in relation to ongoing Wars and conflicts, such as the attack on Ukraine.
- The Kremlin's alleged use of corruption allegations as a pretext for dismissals in the military has raised questions about the integrity of Russia's Military, potentially undermining its credibility in geopolitical conflicts like the one in Ukraine.
- As the investigation into corruption within the Russian military continues, some political analysts have speculated that the attack on Ukraine may provide a strategic rationale for the Kremlin's aggressive personnel changes, as it seeks to solidify its control over its military forces in the face of international criticism.
Source: www.ntv.de
