Survey - Majority expect an AfD prime minister in 2024
The majority of Germans expect the AfD to achieve an absolute majority in at least one of the three state elections in eastern Germany this year and thus also become the state premier. According to a survey conducted by the opinion research institute YouGov on behalf of Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 53% believe such a scenario is likely and only 32% think it is unlikely. In eastern Germany, as many as 58% expect the AfD to come to power in one of the three states and become head of government.
New state parliaments will be elected in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September. In all three states, the AfD is well ahead in some polls. In Brandenburg, Dietmar Woidke of the SPD is currently the Minister President of a coalition with the CDU and the Greens. In Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, a CDU politician, is head of government in a coalition with the Greens and SPD. In Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow of the Left Party is leading a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
All other parties represented in the three state parliaments are currently ruling out a coalition with the AfD. As things stand, the AfD could therefore only become head of government if it wins an absolute majority of seats in parliament.
42% do not believe that the "firewall" will hold
However, 42% of respondents do not believe that the CDU/CSU will keep its promise not to work with the AfD at state and federal level. Only 36% are of the opinion that this so-called "firewall" will hold.
The AfD is already in charge at municipal level. Last year, an AfD politician was elected full-time mayor in Saxony-Anhalt for the first time. In mid-December, a candidate running for the AfD won a mayoral election in Pirna, Saxony. The AfD has also been the district administrator in the southern Thuringian district of Sonneberg for around six months.
European elections: Majority do not see AfD as the strongest party
Local elections will be held in all five eastern German states except Berlin on June 9. The European Parliament will be elected at the same time. This is the first nationwide vote since the 2021 federal elections and is therefore an indicator of the mood in the country.
Only 28% of respondents think it is likely that the AfD will become the strongest party and 57% think it is unlikely. 56% believe that the CDU/CSU is most likely to come first in this election, 20% the SPD and 11% the Greens.
Bundestag election: Majority see CDU/CSU in first place
The picture is similar with regard to the next general election, which is currently scheduled for fall 2025. 27% believe it is likely that the AfD will become the strongest party. However, 56% consider this to be unrealistic.
59% expect the CDU/CSU to win the election. In contrast, only 16% believe that the SPD will become the strongest party again with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Only 9% believe that the Greens will do so.
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- In the upcoming state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, many Germans believe that the AfD might secure an absolute majority, becoming the state premier in at least one of these regions.
- According to a survey conducted by YouGov on behalf of the German Press Agency, 53% of Germans and 58% of eastern Germans believe this scenario is likely, while only 32% and 32% respectively think it's unlikely.
- Currently, the CDU/CSU is widely understood to maintain a "firewall" against working with the AfD at the state and federal levels, but 42% of respondents do not believe this promise will be kept.
- In the eastern German state of Brandenburg, Dietmar Woidke, the SPD's Minister President, heads a coalition with the CDU and Greens, while in Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, a CDU politician, leads a coalition with the Greens and SPD.
- In Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow of the Left Party leads a coalition with the SPD and Greens, and all other parties in the three state parliaments have ruled out the possibility of a coalition with the AfD.
- The "firewall" may be tested in eastern Germany in 2024, as this is the year where most Germans expect the AfD to gain an absolute majority in at least one of the three states.
- Last year, an AfD politician became the full-time mayor in Saxony-Anhalt, and the AfD has also successfully won mayoral elections in Pirna, Saxony, and in Sonneberg, Thuringia.
- In the European elections, scheduled on June 9 in all eastern German states except Berlin, only 28% of respondents believe the AfD will be the strongest party, while 57% think that's unlikely, with the CDU/CSU being the most likely to come first.
- In the Bundestag election, which is booked for the fall of 2025, 56% of Germans expect the CDU/CSU to win, while only 16% believe the SPD, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, will be the strongest party again.
Source: www.stern.de
