Latinos defect to Trump and could decide US election

US presidential election - Latinos defect to Trump and could decide US election - or not?

If you want to govern the USA, you can't ignore the Latinos. Around a fifth of Americans have their roots in Spanish-speaking neighboring countries. That is 54 million Americans, predominantly Catholic, rather conservative, more workers than department heads. And actually Democrat voters - like many other minorities. But their support is crumbling and could cost US President Joe Biden the decisive votes. The beneficiary would be Donald Trump, ex-president and as-good-as-certain candidate for the next election in November.

"People are disappointed with the Democrats"

Take Arizona, for example: in the state on the border with Mexico, a third of the population is Hispanic, and incumbent Biden won here in 2020 by a margin of just 10,000 votes. However, Donald Trump is currently ahead in almost all polls. "People are disappointed with the Democrats," 42-year-old Aracely Mendez, a harvest worker from Arizona, told Reuters. "Prices have gone up. It's tough." Retiree Alma Cuevas also explained that she was more inclined towards Trump than Biden in this election. She says she has fared better economically under Trump and that Biden has not done enough to combat illegal immigration.

The latter is likely to become the overriding election issue in the coming months. It concerns both new and old Americans. So far, the government in Washington has not really been able to satisfactorily control or even stem the flow of migrants. This has provided a steep opportunity for right-wing populist Donald Trump, who has been building a wall on the border with Mexico for years and recently even wants to kick all twelve million undocumented migrants out of the country.

Latinos concerned about illegal immigration

Many Democrats have so far reacted dismissively and believe that Latinos see Trump's tough stance as racist. While many do, "concerns about illegal immigration remain high," as Ruy Teixeira, a political analyst, tells Reuters. In addition to this issue, Latinos, like the vast majority of Americans, are concerned about inflation, jobs and the economy in general.

According to a poll of 800 Hispanic adults by Reuters and Ipsos, Trump has a 38% approval rating, ahead of Biden, who has 37%. Reason: "The Democrats are avoiding the main problem - high prices. That's not what working-class voters expect from a political party."

Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden

Obviously, Latinos are not the only group of voters who were hoping for more from the government in this respect. President Joe Biden has lost considerable support among most voters and is now behind his old and probably new opponent Trump in the polls. In all swing states where the election could be decided on November 5, including Arizona, the Republican is leading, in some cases by double digits.

The upcoming election is likely to be anything but a walkover for the ruling Democrats. Many party strategists had long hoped that Donald Trump would get tangled up in his numerous lawsuits. But so far, the perpetual defendant has even been able to benefit from his legal problems. And to make matters worse for Biden's party, Latinos are not as reliable voters as is often assumed.

Latino voters not a safe bet for Democrats

At least that's what authors Maria Cardona and Matt Barreto write in theLos Angeles Times. The Democratic analyst and the political scientist point out that the Hispanic population tends to lean towards the Democrats, but not always and everywhere. In 2004, then Republican US President George W. Bush won almost 40 percent of the Latino vote when he was re-elected; eight years later, 70 percent of them voted for the Democrat.

In tight states such as Arizona and Nevada, however, "Joe Biden was recently elected by two out of three Latinos and with significant differences depending on the candidate", according to Cardon and Barreto. In short, they conclude: "It is an exaggeration to consider Latino voters a safe bet for the Democrats. The party certainly reaches them best, but it also has to work hard to keep them as voters."