Kinshal missiles are Russia's hope in the war of the arms industries

The Ukrainian air defense had major problems with the Russian Kinshal missiles for a long time. That is now a thing of the past; the alleged "wonder weapon" is not one. However, the Kinshals fit in well with the Russians' wear-and-tear strategy.

Following the Ukrainian airstrikes on targets in the Russian city of Belgorod on December 29 and 30, Russia has intensified its shelling of Ukraine. On Tuesday morning, Kiev and the surrounding area as well as the city of Kharkiv were the main targets of the Russians. At least four Ukrainians were killed in the attacks.

The Ukrainian air force announced that 59 Ch-55 air-to-ground cruise missiles had been shot down, as well as three Kalibr guided cruise missiles and all ten Kinschal missiles. In total, the Russian army had fired at least 99 missiles and numerous drones.

Russian ruler Putin called the attacks on Belgorod an "act of terrorism", to which Russia is responding by "intensifying" attacks on military facilities in Ukraine. It is unclear whether Ukraine intended to cause civilian casualties with its attacks on Belgorod or accepted them; according to Russian information, 25 civilians were killed. What is certain, however, is that terror in this war comes solely from the aggressor. On Friday alone, at least 39 people were killed in Ukraine.

"Then the missile just glides"

What is remarkable about these attacks is not only how consistently Putin distorts the facts. It is also remarkable that Ukraine was able to stop all of the Kinshal missiles - a new record, according to Ukrainian Supreme Commander Valery Salushnyi. This missile, which is fired from fighter jets, has been described in Russia as a "wonder weapon" - and in fact it initially caused great difficulties for the Ukrainian air defense. Ukraine only reported the first launch of a Kinschal in May 2023. The "Dagger" - as "Kinschal" is called in German - is not a wonder weapon. But the missile type fits in well with the Russians' general strategy of attrition, which relies on mass both in terms of burning out its own soldiers and technology.

Kinshal missiles are slightly modified Iskanders, a surface-to-surface missile with a range of up to 500 kilometers. Unlike these, however, Kinschal are fired from a MiG-31, says military expert Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin to ntv.de. This makes it more difficult to intercept them. "It's also more difficult to issue advance warnings because the thing comes in faster." Air alerts are therefore already triggered in Ukraine when fighter jets of this type take off in Belarus. "The moment the missiles are fired from the fighter jet, it would be too late for protective measures," says Gressel. "Then it only takes two to five minutes for the missile to hit."

It is true that Kinshal missiles have a greater range than Iskanders. But Gressel is skeptical about the top speeds claimed by Russia for the alleged wonder weapon: "It's a boost-glide vehicle. This means that it accelerates very quickly, but then the rocket just glides because it has no propulsion of its own." As the tip of the rocket begins to glow after re-entering the earth's atmosphere, a plasma arc is created around the missile, which makes it difficult for radar to detect the Kinschal at first. "However, the Kinschal cannot sustain the high speed and thus the plasma arc."

Not a hypersonic weapon

This is why the Kinschal is not, as is often claimed, a hypersonic weapon, but rather a further development of a ballistic missile, emphasizes defence expert Nico Lange, Senior Fellow of the Zeitenwende Initiative at the Munich Security Conference. "The Kinschal flies very fast and is difficult to defend against," says Lange. "In Ukraine, however, it has been shown that Patriot air defense systems can fend off Kinschal missiles." Ukraine even shot down waves of several missiles fired simultaneously with Patriot air defense missiles. Lange concludes: "The Russian fuss about Kinshal is not justified."

Because the Kinschal flies faster than an Iskander, a Patriot air defense system would have to be closer to the target of the missile in order to successfully intercept it, says Gressel. "But the thing can be intercepted, and the Ukrainians have the most war-tested and best air and missile defense system in the world - after the Israelis, but perhaps also alongside or even ahead of them." Gressel, who worked in the Austrian Ministry of Defense between 2006 and 2014, believes that the Ukrainian air force's launch figures are plausible. "They certainly match the figures that we calculated in simulations in the Austrian Armed Forces at the time when the Kinschal was still under development."

"Key insight still not reached decision-makers"

However, it often takes more than one Patriot missile to shoot down a Kinschal. "The time span in which such a missile can be intercepted is often so short that you have to shoot on suspicion. This drives up Ukraine's ammunition consumption." According to Gressel, this is the biggest problem with the Kinschals: "It is difficult to procure Patriots, and the production times for these defensive missiles are long. That is the effect that Russia is counting on: that it produces more Kinschals than the West produces Patriots." Military expert Markus Reisner also points this out: "Russia is increasingly trying to oversaturate the air defense systems supplied by the West. The aim behind this is to achieve constant wear and tear," he says.

The question of who wins this industrial war of attrition will therefore not be decided in Ukraine, but in the Western capitals. Even almost two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, decision-makers in the West have not come to this central realization: "This is also a war of arms industries."