Conflict in the Middle East - Hurdles loom for Gaza agreement despite US efforts
Despite US President Joe Biden's call for an end to the Gaza conflict, the barriers to a deal between Israel and the militant-islamist group Hamas remain high. While a Hamas spokesperson in Lebanon expressed optimism and said they would evaluate Israel's offer, Hamas's military chief hiding in tunnels beneath Gaza, Yahya al-Sinwar, insists on an agreement that ensures Hamas's survival as a military and political power in the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a statement following Biden's address, maintained that Israel's conditions for ending the war still stand: the deconstruction of Hamas and the liberation of all hostages.
Representatives from Egypt, the US, and Qatar, acting as mediators in the conflict, released a joint statement urging Israel and Hamas to accept the deal propositioned by Biden. The offer includes a plan for a permanent ceasefire and a resolution to the crisis.
Earlier, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken phoned his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, as the three mediator nations' ministries publicized. Blinken urged Shoukri to accept the deal promptly.
Netanyahu's Advisor: Many Specifics Still Unclear
Regardless, several pro-Netanyahu coalition partners have threatened to disassemble his government coalition if Israel accepts the deal. This would signify a "victory for terrorism" and a "complete defeat" for Israel, proclaimed right-wing extremist Police Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. The right-wing extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich rebuffed the plan on Facebook, stating it would conclude the war without fulfilling its objectives.
In contradiction, tens of thousands of people protested in several cities throughout the country in support of the agreement and demanded new elections. They accused the government of insufficient action for the release of the captives. Organizers reportedly confirmed the participation of 120,000 people in a mass assembly in Tel Aviv, according to the "Times of Israel". There were skirmishes with law enforcement personnel and several detentions. This constituted the largest demonstration since October 7.
Falk, Netanyahu's foreign policy consultant, sketched an interview with the British newspaper "The Sunday Times" that many details remain unclear. "It's not a good deal, but we want unrestrictedly that the hostages are released - and that's all of them," said Falk. Nonetheless, he affirmed that Israel's conditions have not shifted: the liberation of every captive and the annihilation of Hamas. "The notion that Israel will consent to a permanent ceasefire before those conditions are met is just a fantasy," stated Netanyahu.
Is Sinwar Stalling?
The leader of Hamas in Gaza, Sinwar, who must approve an agreement, feels that time is on his side and that the conflict can draw Israel into a deeper quagmire. According to the "Wall Street Journal," Civilian casualties in Gaza led international pressure on Israel, and Sinwar is striving to maintain Hamas as a significant political force in the area.
The plan presented by Biden for a resolution fails to designate who will control the Gaza Strip after the war, potentially allowing Hamas to reclaim de facto control of the region. This would benefit the Islamists after over seven months of strife, reported the "New York Times". Sinwar pursues "larger gains" than most within the political wing, an Arab interlocutor directly involved in the mediation talks remarked.
The three-phase Biden proposal for a treaty includes a complete, unrestricted 6-week ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from densely populated areas in Gaza. In the initial phase, a specific group of hostages - including women, the elderly, and those injured - would be released. This exchange would occur along with the discharge of hundreds of Palestinians held in Israel. During the second phase, fighting would be irrevocably terminated, and the remaining captives would be released. Finally, during the last phase, Gaza reconstruction would recommence.
Israel Maintains Right to Continue the Struggle
Meanwhile, an Israeli official reaffirmed to "Times of Israel" that Israel can reinitiate the battle if the Hamas breaches the terms of Biden's proposed agreement. For instance, if the agreed-upon number of captives isn't released. "And if Israel concludes that the talks are futile and simply a stalling tactic," the official explained to the newspaper.
A potential breakthrough in the ongoing negotiations is within reach. However, the vast gulf between Israel's war objectives and Hamas's political motivations makes resolving smaller disagreements a challenging task, according to mediators speaking to the "Wall Street Journal."
The initial spark for the conflict was the horrific massacre perpetrated by Hamas and other radical militants on October 7th. These terrorists killed well over 1200 individuals and abducted around 250 captives to Gaza. Israel retaliated with ferocious aerial bombardments and a ground invasion. Per the health authorities under Hamas's control, more than 36,300 casualties have occurred. The aforementioned figure, which doesn't differentiate between soldiers and non-combatants, cannot be definitively confirmed.
