Russia's potential impact on European elections: a closer look

How Russia might influence European elections

Russia's meddling in international elections is no secret. The question now arises: how significant is the prospect of Russia interfering in the upcoming European election? And what approach might they take?

Just prior to the European election, worries about Russian interference are heightening once more. There have been cyber-attacks on EU institutions, claims of pro-Russian platforms spreading propaganda within the EU, and whispers of money transfers to European politicians. But how serious is the threat?

Lea Frühwirth, a specialist in electoral influence at the Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS), Berlin, says that Russia has been involved in disreputable influence practices for some time. This includes disinformation campaigns via fake media outlets that spread via advertisements and non-genuine accounts.

"The European Parliament election in early June is a potential target for such influence endeavors," she states. Typical strategies include discrediting political parties and politicians who question the validity of the electoral process. Campaigns could also indirectly sway voters. Anybody seeking to erode trust in democratic institutions could do so by insinuating that they do not adequately safeguard the population.

Frühwirth adds that Russia isn't just messing with elections. The campaigns are more like a constant background noise that becomes more intense for specific reasons or to intensify polarizing debates. The most notable example is Russia's military action against Ukraine. The East StratCom Task Force, part of the EU's diplomatic service, reports that disinformation cases related to Ukraine comprise over 40% of their database.

It's not always clear who's behind the dissemination of disinformation. For example, a video shared on social media in mid-March shows a tank with a flag resembling the EU flag driving through the terrain. However, as fact-checkers discovered, the emblem on the flag in the video actually belongs to the "Freedom of Russia" Legion, which is supporting Ukraine. Determining who's behind these videos and who's spread them is often difficult.

According to East StratCom Task Force experts, the goal of campaigns related to the Ukraine war is to undercut European support for aid to the afflicted nation.

Cyberattacks on the SPD

However, Russian interference isn't limited to disinformation campaigns. There's strong speculation that Russia is involved in cyberattacks. "There can be various motives behind them," explains Frühwirth. "For instance, stealing data, revealing vulnerabilities in essential infrastructures, or creating a communication impact." Assaults on vital infrastructures would disrupt essential processes, leading to a perception that the affected country cannot safeguard its citizens.

In the past, the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been a target of such cyberattacks. In 2015, the party's computer network was breached, and in 2016, the email accounts of several prominent SPD politicians were accessed. The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) attributes these attacks to Russia. The BfV suspects that the aim was to gain access to confidential information and to affect the political process in Germany.

In 2017, the German government enacted legislation requiring political parties to inform the BfV about cyberattacks. This law was the reaction to the increasing number of cyberattacks on political institutions in Germany and Europe. It also allows the BfV to aid the parties in the event of an attack.

Despite these measures, the likelihood of Russian influence in the imminent European election remains high. Frühwirth encourages voters to be vigilant and to check the sources of the information they receive. "It's crucial to be critical of what you see and hear, particularly in the context of political campaigns," she advises. "And if you discover anything questionable, inform the authorities."

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has openly identified Russia as the perpetrator of cyberattacks on the SPD and German companies in the logistics, defense, aviation, and IT services industries. "Russian state hackers have assaulted Germany in the cyber realm," Baerbock declared in May. The German government imputes a Russian military intelligence service unit, APT28, with perpetrating these assaults.

It's not just Germany under Russia's gaze

According to the EU, other State institutions, agencies, and organizations in the member states, including Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Sweden, have already been targeted by the same "threat actor." A particularly noteworthy instance of potential Russian manipulation is the platform Voice of Europe - centered in Prague. This platform is suspected of disseminating pro-Russian propaganda in the EU and paying money to European politicians.

On this platform, interviews with AFD politician Petr Bystron and his colleague Maximilian Krah featured. Czech newspaper "Denik N" revealed in early April that in Bystron's case, money might have changed hands. The AFD Bundestag member has persistently denied this. Krah also denies receiving money from the Voice of Europe circle.

As a result of these and other revelations, the Munich public prosecutor's office has launched what's known as preliminary investigations to establish whether a suspicion of an offense relating to the bribery of a parliamentarian arises. According to dpa information, these investigations concern allegations linked to Voice of Europe.

The EU decided to ban Voice of Europe and three other Russian media from broadcasting in mid-May. It's possible that the broadcast ban was separated from a planned 14th sanctions package against Russia to prevent any impact on the European election. Researcher Frühwirth cautions that attempts to undermine the legitimacy of election results might not end once the election is over, potentially leading to long-term issues. "Don't think that just because the election campaign is over, attempts at influencing the election's legitimacy will stop."