Germany should seize its opportunity in Congo

China is by far the Democratic Republic of Congo's largest trading partner, but skepticism towards the People's Republic is growing. If President Tshisekedis is confirmed in office, this will be an opportunity for Germany and Europe.

A huge building complex is currently under construction in the heart of the Congolese capital Kinshasa: the People's Republic of China is building a new embassy that will surpass all other representations in the resource-rich country. However, the Democratic Republic of the Congo's main trading partner is clearly feeling the headwind under the current president, Félix Tshisekedi, who is having the bilateral agreements renegotiated. On December 20, the country with a population of 100 million will elect a new president. This could be an opportunity for Germany.

70 percent of the cobalt mined worldwide comes from the Central African country. Beijing is the main buyer of this raw material, which has so far been irreplaceable for the energy transition. Coltan, copper and lithium, which are also available in abundance in the DR Congo, will also play a decisive role in the implementation of the energy and mobility transition. In addition to the immense deposits of raw materials, the country is home to the second largest contiguous area of rainforest in the world. Congo's importance for the green transformation is unique in the world.

China has recognized the potential and is the largest investor in the Congolese mining sector; 15 of the 17 cobalt mines in Congo are (partially) financed by the People's Republic. 80 percent of all Congolese raw materials find their way to China for further processing. In 2022, the joint trade volume amounted to 21.9 billion US dollars. In comparison: Germany has a trade volume of 223 million US dollars.

Partnership with China is viewed increasingly critically

The basis of the partnership between China and the Congo is the so-called "Treaty of the Century" from 2008, in which China, hungry for raw materials, was promised far-reaching mining concessions. In return, the People's Republic committed to extensive infrastructure development. However, only a fraction of the promised 9 billion US dollars in investments in the desolate Congolese infrastructure has been made to date. The government speaks of exploitation and is having the contracts renegotiated.

Despite his economic dependence on China, Tshisekedi, who lived in Belgium for a long time, is not a natural partner of the People's Republic. He is much more skeptical of it than his predecessor Joseph Kabila. The partnership is now also being increasingly scrutinized by the civilian population, partly because Chinese companies often disregard the Congolese government's guidelines with their extremely aggressive raw materials policy.

Other new partners are also involved in the Congo. The United Arab Emirates is currently building the country's first deep-sea port. During his state visit in 2022, Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdoğan promised the construction of a gigantic new financial center in Kinshasa, which is now nearing completion.

Rapprochement in the interests of Europe

The non-transparent economic structure in the DR Congo plays into the hands of countries such as China. Due to complex compliance regulations, a lack of political will and well-intentioned but difficult-to-implement legal requirements, such as the supply chain law, market access is also challenging for European companies. Nevertheless, due to its key role in climate policy, the DR Congo should also become a geostrategic priority in the eyes of Western countries.

It is therefore in the strategic interests of Germany and Europe to expand relations with difficult, but essentially pro-Western governments and to face up to the global competition on the ground. This is the only way to reduce dependence on China for critical raw materials. Expanded state export guarantees, especially for high-risk countries with weak institutions, would be conducive to the sustainable establishment of German companies. The DR Congo's participation in the Compact With Africa initiative at the end of November this year is therefore a genuine attempt at rapprochement.

A second term in office for Tshisekedi could not only mean political stability for Europe in the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of area, but would also guarantee a potentially close partner in global competition with China. Despite all the difficulties and domestic political challenges, a government is standing for re-election that is much closer to the West on global political issues than many other countries on the African continent.

In the current Congolese election campaign, ideological differences hardly matter. The leaders of the more than 900 parties are primarily attracting attention with populist slurs and criticism of the electoral commission. The (new) president is due to be inaugurated on January 20, provided the biggest logistical hurdles that have yet to be resolved are cleared. The main challenger, Moïse Katumbi, is only significantly more popular than the incumbent in Katanga, his home region. There is therefore little standing in the way of Tshisekedi's election victory. An opportunity for Germany and Europe to gain influence in the future.

The author: Jakob Kerstan, who studied political science and economics, has headed the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's international office in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 2021.

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Given the strategic importance of the Democratic Republic of Congo for critical raw materials necessary for Europe's green transition, especially cobalt, copper, and lithium, and China's dominance in commodity trading, Germany could explore opportunities in copper trading with the Democratic Republic of Congo if President Tshisekedi is re-elected. Additionally, Germany could consider engaging in commodity trading in other raw materials like coltan and lithium, as China is the main buyer of these materials from the Congo.

Source: www.ntv.de