Military - Experts do not yet believe China is capable of a Taiwan invasion
Western and Taiwanese experts currently do not believe China is capable of militarily invading the island state of Taiwan. "Although the risk of a conflict over Taiwan has increased, a full amphibious assault by China is unlikely in the short term," Amanda Hsiao, China analyst at the non-governmental organization Crisis Group, told the German Press Agency. The term "amphibious assault" refers to an attack across the strait between the two countries.
The chances of a successful operation are uncertain, said Hsiao. According to her, Beijing does not currently have the military capabilities for a quick and decisive victory over Taiwan.
China also seems to have realized that it cannot force Taiwan to give up, said David Gitter from the US research institute National Bureau of Asian Research. "However,Beijing is actively working to address these shortcomings." In the medium and long term, however, an invasion or other military action cannot be ruled out. However, the costs of war are high. China's economic problems and the attempts at rapprochement with Taiwan's ally, the USA, make an invasion unlikely at present.
Why China wants Taiwan back
Beijing takes a different view: "If China wants to solve the Taiwan issue by force, it can be solved tonight, and no one can stop it, not even the Taiwan independence elements or the US," said Victor Gao, president of the Beijing-based Chinese think tank Centre for China and Globalization. The USA is either overestimating its own military strength or underestimating China's. According to Gao, China does not want war. "We all think that peaceful reunification is the better way," he said. Taiwan will always be a part of China and China is in no hurry to resolve the issue.
Beijing has claimed Taiwan for itself for decades under the so-called one-China policy. The dispute goes back to the Chinese civil war between the communists and the government of the Republic of China - not to be confused with today's People's Republic of China. After the Second World War and the end of Japanese colonial rule, Taiwan once again belonged to the Republic of China for a few years. In 1949, the current Taiwanese opposition party Kuomintang lost the civil war and fled to Taiwan, where it continued to rule as the Republic of China. An independent democratic government has been in place in the capital Taipei since the late 1980s.
Beijing has already threatened Taiwan and its more than 23 million inhabitants with invasion if "peaceful reunification" is not possible. China's air force and navy regularly conduct exercises in the Taiwan Strait, the strait between Taiwan and the south-eastern Chinese province of Fujian. Fighter jets invade Taiwan's air defense zone almost daily in an attempt to tire out the armed forces and intimidate the public, according to experts.
Expert sees geographical advantage
The Taiwan Strait is the "core" for the defense of the island state, said Su Tzu-yun from the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research. Unlike Ukraine or Israel, Taiwan cannot be attacked so easily because it is not connected to land. China has little chance of victory even by 2030. Taiwan is equipped with many missiles against warships and fighter planes, which could turn the sea into an impenetrable zone, which in turn would make an amphibious landing in Taiwan more difficult.
Kuo Yujen from the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Taiwan's National Sun Yat-sen University also believes that China's head of state and party leader Xi Jinping has little confidence in his army. Beijing dismissed its defense minister and several generals in 2023. The official reason for this is unclear. According to experts, the elections in Taiwan in January will also be a decisive factor. If the Democratic Progressive Party remains in office, this is likely to increase the pressure. If the pro-Beijing Kuomintang wins, China will try to negotiate reunification, according to Kuo Yujen.
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- Despite the increased risk of conflict, the German Press Agency reports that Western and Taiwanese experts believe China's military capabilities are currently not sufficient for a quick and decisive victory in an amphibious assault on Taiwan.
- The Crisis Group's Amanda Hsiao suggests that Beijing does not have the military abilities to invade Taiwan at this turn of the year, a concept referring to the end and beginning of a calendar year.
- David Gitter from the National Bureau of Asian Research agrees, stating that while China is working to address its shortcomings, an invasion or other military action against Taiwan cannot be ruled out in the medium or long term due to the high costs of war and economic challenges.
- In contrast, Victor Gao, president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, believes Beijing is not aiming for war and "believes that peaceful reunification is the better way," referring to China's aim to reclaim Taiwan under its one-China policy.
- The Kuomintang, Taiwan's opposition party, lost the Chinese civil war in 1949 and fled to Taiwan, where it governed as the Republic of China until an independent democratic government took power in the late 1980s in Taipei, the capital of Taiwan.
- China's threat to invade Taiwan if "peaceful reunification" is not possible reinforces the island nation's focus on defense, as experts like Su Tzu-yun from the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research affirm that Taiwan's geographical advantage makes it difficult for China to successful execute an amphibious landing or invasion.
- The diplomatic relationship between Taiwan and the US is a crucial factor in China's decision to invade or negotiate with the island state, as experts suggest that the pro-Beijing Kuomintang winning elections in Taiwan would likely increase the chance of Beijing pursuing negotiations for reunification, while a Democratic Progressive Party victory would increase pressure for unification due to the Democratic Progressive Party's stance on Taiwan's sovereignty.
Source: www.stern.de
