Perplexity ensues following statement - Experts challenge Lauterbach's claim of unexpected sevenfold rise in the number of people in need of healthcare.
There's been a notable rise in the number of people requiring care assistance in Germany, as estimated by Health Minister Karl Lauterbach. According to him, the number of such individuals was predicted to grow by roughly 50,000 by this year, yet the actual count has surpassed 360,000. The long-term care insurance system is facing a severe dilemma.
The cost of care in nursing homes is on the rise, consequently leading to a surge in contributions for those dependent on it. As of January 1st, the average monthly self-paid amount set in nursing homes across Germany amounted to 2576 euros - a significant increment from the initial 2411 euros in 2023.
The question arises as to how Lauterbach and his government missed predicting this sharp increase by more than 300,000 people last year.
Lauterbach's theory: Demographic sandwiched effect
Lauterbach suggests that the sudden elevation in people requiring care is due to a "sandwich effect" on demographics. According to him, elderly, needy individuals coincide with the first Baby Boomers, a generation that is now also dependent on care support. The boomers and their aging parents both require care at the same time, resulting in this phenomenon.
However, this theory has been refuted by Prof. Heinz Rothgang, a healthcare expert, who points out that the numbers are not only sudden but also inaccurate. He cites reliable figures published by the GKV (the umbrella organization representing statutory health insurance funds) indicating a consistent increase of around 326,000 people yearly since 2017. Granted, a slightly lower figure was noted during the Corona years.
The baby boomer illusion
Lauterbach's belief that the Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, are responsible for the population boom in the care-dependent is also being challenged. He insists that this generation's improved medical advancements and survival rates contribute to an influx of younger people in need of care.
My view, as shared in the Tagesspiegel, is that medical advancements have been around since medicine's inception, not exclusively prevalent in the last three years. A significant uptick in new applications was noticed among 1.19 and 1.35 million individuals, with the increase spreading across all age groups and not localized to the Baby Boomers.
To provide an approximate projection of future numbers and make informed choices regarding potential crises, one could refer to the models produced by the Federal Statistical Office. By basing forecasts on the existing data and considering various uncertainties, including pandemics and demographic events, a more accurate prediction of the growth in the number of care-dependent individuals up to the year 2070 might be made.
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Source: www.stern.de
