Elections end Zuma's monopoly on power.
A pivotal moment in South African politics looms on the horizon. For more than three decades, the South African branch of the former anti-apartheid stalwart Nelson Mandela's party, the African National Congress (ANC), has held absolute power. Now, this dominance is faltering as two potential coalition partners emerge.
In South Africa, preliminary results reveal that the ANC has conceded its absolute majority in recent parliamentary elections, down from 57.5% in 2019 to 40.11%. With 97.51% of the votes counted, the ANC's grip on the country is weakening.
For this esteemed political party of Nelson Mandela, the implications are more than a substantial electoral disappointment. For the first time in the nation's 30-year democratic history, the ANC will not govern independently. They will now need to engage in coalition-building and political negotiations. From 1994, when democracy took hold, the ANC has held an absolute majority and governed the strongest economy in Africa alone.
Who will partner with the ANC?
As the clock ticks down on the necessary coalition formation, the IEC has issued a timeline: within 14 days of the official election result's announcement, the 400 newly elected parliamentarians must establish a government and elect a president. Two parties have emerged as potential coalition partners: the economically liberal Democratic Alliance (DA), and the Marxist-inspired Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
The DA stands at 21.71% based on preliminary results, holding a far less liberal ideology than the ANC. However, they have already demonstrated their capabilities at the provincial level. Since 2009, they have employed their governing expertise in the Western Cape province, which encompasses the tourist hub of Cape Town.
The EFF presents another option for a coalition, with a slant towards land expropriation without compensation and nationalization. They are currently at 9.37% in the preliminary results, enjoying a relatively close relationship with the ANC due to its former leader, Julius Malema, who once headed the ANC Youth League.
Fourteen months ago, former President Jacob Zuma established a party under the name uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), which secured 14.84% of the votes. Zuma, who was barred from the election by the Johannesburg Constitutional Court last week, is unlikely to be involved in any coalition criteria.
A Bigger Role for German Business
According to Aleix Montana, a political analyst at the risk assessment firm Verisk Maplecroft, a partnership between the ANC and DA is likely despite disparate ideologies. Such an alliance would garner support from western partners and foreign investors, as suggested by Montana.
German businesses keen on South Africa's market are grappling with a mix of optimism and apprehension. Christoph Kannengießer, Managing Director of the Africa Association, shared: "The loss of the ANC majority signifies possibilities and perils for German enterprises, depending on which coalition partner the ANC chooses."
A partnership with EFF would raise investor concerns - not a promising development for South Africa's sluggish economy and persistent unemployment, cautioned Montana. Furthermore, previous ANC-EFF coalitions on the municipal level have proven unstable.
Professor Andreas Freytag, an Economic Policy expert at the University of Jena and a respected Honorary Professor at the South African University of Stellenbosch, is equally skeptical of an ANC-EFF coalition, calling it "toxic to the much-needed economic growth of the country."
Causes of the ANC's Downfall
The recent establishment of the party uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) by Zuma is viewed by some as the primary factor in the ANC's fall from grace, with 14.84% of the vote. However, a coalition with this party is considered unlikely due to internal conflicts.
The ANC blames its losses on its lackluster track record in government, prompting worry from the 61 million people of South Africa, located at the southernmost tip of the continent. This population faces a flagging economy, rampant unemployment, dilapidated state-owned enterprises, frequent power outages, and endemic corruption.
Cyril Ramaphosa Holds Steadfast
The ANC remained uncharacteristically mute on election day. Momvula Mikonyane, their deputy secretary general, had assured the day before in a limited media appearance that President Cyril Ramaphosa would not step down. As the shuffle for a new government begins, it remains unclear whether Ramaphosa will be elected for a fifth term as head of state. A former contender for South Africa's development, he is now accused of being ineffective during his tenure, mired by intraparty conflicts.
John Steenhuisen, the leader of the DA, regarded the election results as "a victory for South Africa's democracy" while acknowledging the uncertainty of the government formation. "To save South Africa, we needed to shatter the ANC's absolute majority, and we've managed to do that," Steenhuisen mentioned.
South Africa's significance for Germany and Europe is impossible to ignore. As the country embarks on a post-ANC political landscape, both nations stand to gain or lose from the decisions made. How these elections play out will shape the path forward for this vibrant yet volatile nation.
A total of 52 parties took part in the election, held on May 29, vying for the 400 available seats in the National Parliament. Results were then announced, with the newly elected parliament needing to form a government and appoint a president within a 14-day time frame. Additionally, regional governments were elected.
Not only are these elections significant for South Africa, but they also have implications for Germany and Europe. South Africa currently boasts the strongest economy on the continent and is seen as a major player in the global energy transition process. The country also holds the unique distinction of being Africa's sole G20 member.
Though South Africa maintains amicable ties with Western nations, its ties to Russia and China remain strong. During the Gaza War, South Africa aligned itself with the Palestinian cause, filing a suit against Israel in the International Court of Justice, charging them with perpetrating genocide in the Gaza Strip.
