Does the court verdict threaten Trump's prospects for capturing the presidency?
Former President Donald Trump is striving to become the US President once more in November. His chances in the elections right now are quite favorable. However, the outcome of his hush money trial could impact this significantly. Here's a rundown of what might happen if the jury finds him guilty, if they acquit him, or if there's a mistrial.
The hush money trial involving Trump is nearing its end, and the outcome could influence the presidential race between him and the current President, Joe Biden. Trump is trying to reclaim the White House as the Republican candidate.
The trial centers around a $130,000 payment made to porn actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. The money was intended to silence her from speaking publicly about a sexual encounter she claimed to have had with Trump in 2006, to ensure his election wasn't jeopardized. While the payment itself was legal, Trump is accused of falsifying business documents to hide the actual purpose of the payment. Trump has maintained his innocence and denied having had an affair with Daniels.
If Convicted
A guilty verdict could compromise Trump's chances of winning the election. According to a survey conducted by Reuters and Ipsos in April, one-quarter of Republican voters registered to vote might change their minds if Trump is found guilty in a criminal trial. Moreover, 60% of undecided voters said they would not support Trump if he's convicted of a crime.
Considering that the election may only be decided by a few thousand votes in a handful of states, a guilty verdict could shift the balance in favor of Biden. If a small number of moderate conservatives and independents are deterred by a guilty verdict, Biden could emerge victorious.
However, Trump's allies, including Republican pollster Whit Ayres, doubt that many Republican supporters would actually vote against him if he's convicted. They suggest that Trump would use the trial to portray it as a political "witch hunt."
Bill Galston, an analyst with the Washington think tank Brookings Institution and a former staff member of ex-President Bill Clinton, opines that a guilty verdict would have negligible impact on the election campaign. Galston believes that most Americans might view Trump's actions as just another instance of someone lying about sex.
If Convicted, Sentencing
If Trump is found guilty, Judge Juan Merchan must determine the sentence. Trump could face a maximum of four years in prison. However, since this would be his first offense, he might receive a much lighter sentence. It's possible that his prison term could be suspended on probation or a fine could be imposed. There's also a chance that Trump would appeal, possibly pushing the verdict until after the election on November 5.
If Acquitted
Experts from both sides of the political spectrum agree that an acquittal would be a win for Trump. He's been adamant about the trial being politically motivated and aiming to damage his presidential ambitions since day one. During the campaign, Trump could use the acquittal to support his claims that the other cases against him have no legal basis.
According to Republican consultant Tricia McLaughlin, an acquittal could feed Trump's message that all the other legal cases he's facing are similarly baseless. However, Democratic consultant Karen Finney believes that an acquittal might only convince Trump's core supporters. She notes that even if Trump is acquitted, the trial disclosures could repel suburban women, a demographic he's been trying hard to win over.
Hung Jury
If the jurors fail to reach a unanimous verdict, it's referred to as a "hung jury." In this case, Judge Merchan would declare a mistrial, effectively ending the trial for now. Trump supporters may interpret this as a victory, but it would not provide him with the validation that an acquittal would.
Finney asserts that a mistrial would make it clear to voters that at least one juror believes Trump is guilty. She also notes that regardless of the outcome of the trial, Trump would no longer be subject to the court-imposed silence. It's expected that he would unleash more caustic attacks against his opponents and adversaries once the trial is over.
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In the context of the US presidential election 2024, a guilty verdict in Trump's hush money trial could strain his relationships with some Republican voters and undecided voters in the USA. This could potentially shift the election's outcome in favor of President Joe Biden, given the close margin of votes in certain states. On the other hand, if Donald Trump is acquitted, he may leverage this victory to strengthen his claims against political opponents and bolster his support among core Republican voters.
Source: www.ntv.de
