A chancellor asked it twice: the question of confidence and its consequences

A path to new elections - A chancellor asked it twice: the question of confidence and its consequences

Four weeks after the historic budget ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court, the coalition government has agreed on how it intends to close the billion-euro gap in the 2024 federal budget. Savings and cuts are planned, which will also affect consumers in terms of electricity, gas and petrol prices. The debt brake will not be suspended next year for the time being, but back doors remain open.

Opposition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) criticized that the "traffic light" had only found a "formula compromise" and accused the Chancellor of "financial policy trickery". He called on Scholz to call a vote of confidence in parliament - but on another issue: almost at the same time as the agreement was reached on the budget crisis, it was announced that a package of measures on migration policy could no longer be passed this year because the traffic light coalition had not yet reached an agreement.

What is the vote of confidence?

While the Bundestag can vote the Chancellor out of office in a vote of no confidence, the Chancellor links the vote of confidence to a vote on a law that is controversial in the governing coalition. Olaf Scholz (SPD) would thus give "his" MPs the choice of either approving the law - in this case the budget - or withdrawing their confidence in him. If the Chancellor does not receive a majority, Parliament must elect his successor - or the Federal President dissolves the Bundestag: new elections would then follow. This is probably exactly what opposition leader Merz is aiming for. However, in view of the current poor poll ratings, none of the "traffic light" parties are likely to have an interest in holding new elections soon. In this respect, it is also unlikely that Scholz will even take the unnecessary risk of a vote of confidence.

Which chancellors have already called a vote of confidence?

1972: Willy Brandt

Due to the controversial Ostpolitik of Chancellor Willy Brandt(SPD), so many MPs from the governing parties SPD and FDP defected to the CDU/CSU parliamentary group that the opposition faction was as large as the governing faction. This enabled the opposition to block all legislation. On September 22, 1972, Brandt finally faced a vote of confidence - and lost: only 233 MPs expressed their confidence in him, 248 voted against him. However, the result was what Brandt wanted: he wanted to break the stalemate between the governing coalition and the opposition by holding new elections.

1982: Helmut Schmidt

Unlike Brandt, Chancellor Helmut Schmidt (SPD) wanted to secure a government majority despite his fractured governing coalition of SPD and FDP. The Nato Double-Track Decision in particular had put a strain on the coalition: In the 1970s, the Soviet Union had begun to modernize its medium-range nuclear missiles aimed at Western Europe. In Schmidt's eyes, the new SS20s jeopardized the strategic balance in Europe. The NATO Dual-Track Decision ultimately provided for negotiations with the Soviet Union on the dismantling of the SS-20. If the talks were not successful within four years, the USA also wanted to station medium-range nuclear missiles in Western Europe - especially in the Federal Republic of Germany. The Soviet Union took this as an ultimatum and rejected all negotiations.

Schmidt's economic policy in view of the economic crisis and rising unemployment also caused a dispute between the SPD and FDP. Schmidt himself finally put a vote of confidence to the Bundestag on February 5, 1982: out of 493 votes cast, he received 269. 226 MPs voted against him. Despite this victory, Schmidt's government only lasted a few months and collapsed in September 1982.

1982: Helmut Kohl

Chancellor Helmut Kohl had brought down his predecessor Helmut Schmidt with a constructive vote of no confidence on October 1, 1982, when he himself called a vote of confidence on December 13, 1982. His goal was the same as Brandt's: New elections. The polls promised a clear victory for the CDU and FDP. The Federal Constitutional Court ultimately had to decide whether Kohl's path to new elections was constitutionally sound. In the end, it was a complete success for Kohl: the BVG finally approved his vote of confidence for new elections - and with 48.8 percent, he achieved the second-best result for the CDU since 1957.

2001: Gerhard Schröder

Federal Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) had been leading a red-green coalition for three years when he put the question of confidence to the Bundestag on November 16, 2001 - and created a novelty: for the first time, a chancellor linked the question of confidence to a very specific issue. The German government wanted to send German soldiers to Afghanistan as part of the US-led anti-terrorist operation "Enduring Freedom". Schröder himself was in favor of the deployment, as were the opposition leaders of the CDU and FDP, but there was resistance within his coalition. Shortly before the vote, it looked close, in the end 336 of 662 MPs voted "yes" (two votes more than the required absolute majority) and 326 voted "no".

2005: Gerhard Schröder

Like Willy Brandt and Helmut Kohl before him, Schröder wanted to call a vote of confidence in 2005 in order to bring about new elections. The dispute over Hartz IV had shattered his red-green coalition. Schröder's announcement of the vote of confidence caused irritation and constitutional debates. In the vote on July 1, 2005, 151 of the 595 MPs who took part in the vote voted "yes" and 296 voted "no". 148 abstained. This paved the way for new elections. On September 18, 2005, the Germans voted on a new Bundestag - and elected Angela Merkel to the chancellorship instead of Schröder.

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The debate surrounding the budget and migration policy has led to criticism from the opposition leader Frederick Merz of the Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Merz suggested a vote of confidence in parliament, but on a different issue due to the migration policy stalemate. In Western Europe, a vote of confidence can result in the Chancellor's removal if a majority in the Bundestag votes against them. If Scholz fails to receive a majority, a successor must be elected or the Federal President may call for new elections.

The concept of a vote of confidence is not new to German politics. In 1972, Chancellor Willy Brandt faced a similar situation due to the opposing views on his Ostpolitik. brandt lost the vote but sought to use it as an opportunity for new elections. Helmut Schmidt, who succeeded Brandt, also called for a vote of confidence in 1982, but aimed to secure a government majority despite his fractured cabinet.

Another Chancellor, Helmut Kohl, used the vote of confidence strategically in 1982 to bring about new elections, which ultimately proved successful for his party. In 2001, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder linked the question of confidence to the German troops' deployment in Afghanistan, securing a narrow victory in the end.

However, Schröder attempted to call a vote of confidence again in 2005, aiming for new elections due to the Hartz IV dispute. This time, he did not receive the required majority, paving the way for new elections and the election of Angela Merkel as Chancellor.

The question of confidence and its consequences are significant moments in German political history, reflecting the balance of power within the Bundestag and the will of the German people. The current Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, may face a similar test in the near future, especially given the criticisms from the opposition and the poor poll ratings of his coalition.

Source: www.stern.de