Zelenskyy openly discloses his strategies or intentions.
For several weeks, rumors have swirled about a "success strategy" that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has introduced to his Western allies. At the parliamentary meeting, Ukrainians finally received details. Despite not being revolutionary, this strategy caters to the desires of Ukraine's most influential backer – the USA.
The significance of this moment was clear from the assembly. An unusual session of parliament was called for Zelensky's presentation of the so-called "success strategy," which was only made known the day prior. Moreover, virtually the entire Ukrainian military-political leadership attended the Verkhovna Rada hall: Prime Minister Shmyhal, Defense Minister Umerov, Army Chief Syrsky, and the heads of the three Ukrainian intelligence services. This usually high-security risk due to the late broadcast of Zelensky's speech was not a concern on this Wednesday morning.
Zelensky's passionate speech lasted 34 minutes, followed by two additional hours of private discussions with the deputies. Unusual for Zelensky, he typically does not invest such extensive time in parliament, given his political party's majority control.
Parliamentary Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk confirmed the plan's unanimous parliamentary approval. David Arakhamia, Zelensky's faction leader, lauded it as a "detailed document" he heavily valued. However, opposition reactions were mixed.
Managed Expectations
Skepticism surrounding the term "success strategy" emerged among experts associated with Zelensky's administration from the outset. The concept's origin is well-known: The U.S. congress passed an aid provision law in April, requiring the White House to propose a strategy for Ukraine's success. Zelensky has now complied. Yet, some expressed concerns about unrealistic expectations escalating amidst this difficult phase of the Ukrainian conflict.
On one hand, Ukraine's military forces are primarily focused on halting the Russian troops' advance in the Donetsk region, having been under siege since October 2023. On the other hand, the plan does not describe a brand-new military strategy but rather a kind of wish list to the West. The central message: With these tools, Ukraine can counteract Russia.
The implementation of the first four points on Zelensky's wish list, addressing the ongoing combat operations, is a significant challenge from a Western perspective. However, according to Reuters, Zelensky aims for these points to be executed within three months. This includes NATO membership invitation. While Hungary and Slovakia's approval for Ukraine's entry is improbable, even after the war's end, leading Ukrainian journalist Julia Sabelyna from the prominent medium "NV" reported progress on the NATO issue. "Conditions are being negotiated in European capitals, including Berlin, under which this invitation can be extended to Ukraine."
Zelensky's demand for Western weapons to attack Russian territory is provoking concerns during the U.S. presidential election on November 5. The Biden administration's fear of lending credence to Donald Trump's arguments is too substantial. A promising alternative lies in the proposed weapons catalog and investments in Ukrainian arms production – points two ("Defense") and three ("Deterrence") in the "Success Strategy." It is likely that these topics will be discussed confidentially in the U.S. in the coming days. Ukrainian General Staff Chief Anatoly Barhylevych, working closely with Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, is currently in the U.S.
Security Measures Classified
Point four ("Economy") focuses on increasing sanctions pressure on Russia and its allies while strengthening cooperation with Kyiv. This also includes the exploration of joint utilization of Ukraine's land resources with the West after the conflict's end. Kyiv has deemed specific proposals for this as classified.
However, some information is available. Kyiv proposes replacing U.S. military units stationed in Europe with battle-hardened Ukrainian troops after the war. This offer targets not only Trump and his Republicans, who are now disenchanted with Europe's costly military shield, but also Europe as a whole. No other Western army has as much experience in a large-scale conventional war as the Ukrainian armed forces.
Prominent military journalist Bohdan Myroshnikov opines that the strategies are generally achievable, excluding the timeframes mentioned by Zelensky. "Only a combination of such measures can lead us to success. When we can persuade our partners to alter their position from 'We will aid you until necessary' to 'We will aid you to success,' we have hope. But the allies' positions will not change on their own." Significant efforts are required for this change.
From the opposition's perspective, the "Winning Strategy" predominantly comprises requests to allied nations, with a scarcity of self-implementable proposals for Ukraine. According to Iryna Gerashchenko, a prominent MP from the party of ex-President Petro Poroshenko, and Zelensky's political nemesis, "A strategy must be practical and not merely a catalog of points." She acknowledged the merits in ideas such as unity, that democracy is the only viable alternative, strengthening the defense sector, and promoting European integration. "These are crucial aspects we support," Gerashchenko stated. However, she also emphasized the importance of a self-assignment plan: "Break it down: What actions should our state, our institutions undertake in these areas?"
The "Winning Strategy" may not be groundbreaking, but there's general agreement in Ukraine that the points raised by Zelensky are vital for Russia to eventually halt its military intrusion. Yulia Sabelina, a journalist, highlighted that this strategy received constructive criticism, but not outright hostility, from the US political parties. Yet, there are still unresolved issues in the US regarding the ultimate aim of intensive strikes deep into the Russian territory. US politicians also have concerns about Ukraine's shortcomings in amassing more troops, maintaining the combat forces' spirit, and deployment of conscripts in the war. The White House is anticipating that Zelensky will provide answers to all these concerns. Perhaps Head of Staff Barhylewytsch can shed more light on these matters.
In light of the gathering, it was revealed that the "success strategy" presented by Zelensky included a request for NATO membership invitation, sparking concerns during the U.S. presidential election due to potential implications for the ongoing elections.
Despite the mixed reactions from opposition parties, there was general agreement in Ukraine that the points raised by Zelensky's strategy were crucial in challenging Russia's military intrusion. The implementation of this strategy, particularly the first four points, posed significant challenges from a Western perspective.
