"Youth voters may be unaware of the potential repercussions."
Right-wing populists dominate the European elections among young voters, with the AfD and the Union leading the pack. The Greens have taken a major hit among the youth demographic. Political scientist Thomas König from the University of Mannheim believes that green issues have been resolved by other parties for some time, as reported by ntv.
ntv.de: What are the most surprising findings of this European election for you?
Thomas König: Many reports fail to recognize the success of a party like Volt, which has a pro-European, green election program and almost matched the success of the anti-European parties. While Volt focuses on specific issues like the European Parliament's proposal rights, the anti-European stance of Sahra Wagenknecht and the AfD lacks specificity. Volt illustrates that presenting concrete statements can gain a lot of voters, while the traffic light government parties, along with the CDU and CSU, failed to win voters with federal issues and those not connected to Europe. It's likely that these parties once again underestimated the voter who craved more information about Europe's future.
For voters aged 16 to 24 in Germany, the AfD and CDU/CSU are in the lead. We predicted this outcome. Not only did we predict it, but we also provided research-based explanations. The Greens, SPD, and FDP had hoped to attract young voters by lowering the voting age. However, the opposite has occurred. Our study shows that young voters vote differently from established or experienced voters for three reasons: lower party loyalty, disillusionment with the traffic light government, and the use of social media platforms by right-wing populist parties for emotional messages.
How do right-wing populists manage to maintain support despite numerous scandals? It's reminiscent of Donald Trump, who faces legal issues but still has a significant following. This suggests that the political struggle is no longer about substantive issues like pensions, minimum wage, and tax policies, but about emotional connections based on fear, hope, love, and hate. The traffic light government parties and the CDU/CSU fail to comprehend the power of emotion in the political arena.
Do young AfD voters believe the party can improve their situation or are they indifferent? It's uncertain. The future appears bleak for young people, facing inflation, migration, war threats, and climate change.
Despite the study by the Friedrich-Ebert Foundation revealing that young people are politically positioned in the middle, there's a right-leaning shift. According to König, moderate statements used in surveys are problematic as they raise doubts about their validity. Furthermore, there seems to be no connection between populist attitudes and the votes for populist parties among young people.
Can we still consider the votes of young people for the AfD a protest vote? The term "protest vote" is commonly employed to paint the real reasons in a less-than-clear light. Based on our findings, it is more a vote of dissatisfaction, not just with the status quo, but also with the dismal prospects for the future.
The Greens lost 18% of their young voters. Why is the party no longer popular with the younger generation? The climate-focused Greens face a predicament in the traffic light coalition, as they don't go far enough for the Fridays for Future movement on climate issues due to governing with the SPD and the FDP. Additionally, climate policy measures such as the Heating Law are seen as excessive regulation. Another aspect could be the changing generational preferences, as the 16- to 18-year-olds may want to distance themselves from their parents' generation and their Fridays for Future movement. They have different preferences, such as the topic of migration. The significance of this topic has increased in schools to the same level as party identification. The issue of religion, particularly regarding Islam, is now just as relevant as party identification.
The support for the Union has risen by 17% amongst youngsters aged 16-24. What accounts for this trust in the CDU and CSU?
Young people don't always see Angela Merkel or Helmut Kohl as directly responsible for their current situation. These events are seen as history, not their personal experience. This Bill of 17% support for the CDU/CSU isn't exactly thrilling.
On the other hand, the Left Alliance (BWS) has managed to gain 6% of the youth vote. What's appealing about the party?
Sahra Wagenknecht has certain shared beliefs with the AfD, namely on migration, Russia, and the European Union. Yet these subjects are not tackled in a definite way, but rather dismissed under the populist refrain "It's being governed against the will of the people." This rhetoric has made her an attractive personality who is welcomed by the media, always invited, and likes to use the slogan "It's being governed against the will of the people." It seems this approach appeals to many, not just to young people, seeing as it has seemingly swayed the opinions of older voters as well.
Could it be that as young people experience the under-performance of right-wing populist parties in Europe, they'll eventually lose interest in them?
Here's the crux: the AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht don't actually have to prove themselves in Europe. They don't need to form coalitions to push through their plans since the EU Commission currently holds the power to make proposals. What we've witnessed for a while now is that anti-EU parties always reject the European Commission's proposals, while pro-EU factions, be they Greens, Liberals, Social Democrats, or Christian Democrats, always support them. With only two camps in the European Parliament, one always for and the other against, this division is clear cut. That's why it's vital, in my opinion, for the Volt party's proposal to grant the European Parliament proposal rights. It would also be beneficial to reduce the number of European Commissioners from 27 to 10-12 in order to curb the bureaucracy stemming from Brussels. But a conversation about the number of commissioners was also absent from the European election campaign.
